University Applications 2026 - Support Thread

[Ventress]

DS is applying to start university in Autumn 2026. He's done several open days and has a reasonable idea of where and what he wants to wants to study - History or History & Politics.

He loved UCL and Exeter, liked Warwick, didn't like Bristol. He's also talking about early application but can't decide whether to apply to Oxford or Cambridge. He's also muttering about Durham, which he didn't visit but others in his History class did and loved it.

Anyone join me for a thread to support our DC as they navigate this process? DS is my only child so this is all new to me!

Where do you find those stats please?

Would have thought so, but mine was all to do with initial offers, excluding clearing.

Bottom-ish of each UCAS course page, e.g.
https://digital.ucas.com/coursedisplay/courses/f0b37eb6-0a77-0bd4-3a63-70424e24b361?backUrl=https:%2F%2Fwww.ucas.com%2Fexplore%2Fsearch&optionId=f79b6858-5850-4f70-8b66-d774de5f99a4

Yes, keep scrolling down and you’ll see something like the attached (which is MPhys at Loughborough, for illustration).

Just to add - the compare bit, is IF you already had the offer (what is the % chance of being accepted if you got those grades), it's not the % chance of getting the offer in the first place.
Also, the offer rate % can be over a number of years and a number of related courses, and includes contextual, so is not very granular.

Annoyingly not all unis have provided UCAS with the data to generate those stats (looking at you, Edinburgh!).

Hi everyone, can I sense check that we are okay not to have a 'safe banker' for insurance in this scenario?

DS is predicted A-star, A-star, A. His first-choice university asks for A-star, A, A (typically reduced to AAA if firmed) and was in clearing at BBB this year.

His second-choice university (so the one we are minded to put as insurance) asks for AAA (was in clearing at AAB)

His other choices ask for A-star, AA (x2) and AAA. All in clearing at ABB to BBB.

I know that clearing this year might not reflect clearing next year, but with his predicted grades, would you feel happy to submit with these five choices, hopefully firm and insure at AAA, and enter clearing if he is not accepted? Or is this strategy too risky?

Could I join? Have a DD about to go into Year 13, not A* material by any means, but predicted ABB. Wanting to do Biological Science. We looked at clearing this year and saw that Exeter, Southampton and Nottingham had all dropped to BBC. Cardiff weren't showing their clearing grades online, but the course was in clearing. I know clearing isn't the same each year, but do you think DD might stand a chance of one of those as firm, then look at maybe Nottingham Trent or Royal Holloway for insurance (both in clearing at CDD and DDD respectively)?

I also realise that predictions are often not met (is it 70% that don't meet them?) so trying to be realistic.

@tedglenn yes, I think your plan sounds like a good one!

@tedglennSeems perfectly sensible to me. No point shooting too low.

Sounds very similar to DD plan, my SIL is an academic and has advised us that there’s often far more leeway in grades than you’d think, particularly for a firm first choice. Dd is predicted ABB (although thinks that may increase to AAB next term) and is thinking Liverpool or Manchester as first choice for Economics. We haven’t got as far as looking at insurance places yet, but she is taking a year out, so may reapply next year instead when she has her grades rather than predictions.

@LargeChestofDrawers
Depends on what the standard offer is?
It's hard to know (without asking them) how many offers they give to those predicted below the standard offer. Or whether they only offer at their normal tariff, then drop in clearing if they need students.
I.e. you have to get the offer in the first place.

Somehow missed this reply - BBB for MPhys in clearing is very reassuring!! Just shown DS and he is grinning - I think it is a serious contender if only because one of his best mates will already be there, albeit doing CompSci. His mate missed his grades (I think he got ABB, rather than the predicted AstarAA, and they still accepted him, so he is doubly reassured now). 🥰

@LargeChestofDrawers and @tedglenn I agree with @stubiff on the question of standard offers compared to clearing. I'm no expert but from what I've read in the press and on here clearing was being used to "trade up" this year. So if the student has, for example, PG of AAB but didn't get an offer from Manchester with their standard offer of A AA. But then Manchester were in clearing for ABB, and the student achieved ABB or above they could then apply for the clearing place and reject their firm and insurance. But there are lots of ifs and buts so I guess it's not for the faint of heart.

I watched clearing for my son's subject (history) and it was interesting that Exeter, Sheffield and York (standard offer AAB) had ABB in clearing whereas Warwick (standard offer AAA) had BBB in clearing. My son had been thinking of insuring Exeter but is now thinking that he should insure Warwick - assuming he gets the offer in the first place of course. However, as has been said, what happens in clearing this year doesn't mean it's going to happen again next year.

FOI requests are interesting @stubiff , I hadn't thought of doing this. Thank you for you offer, I may well take you up on that.

@Marisquita - we had an exchange on the UCAS offer stats earlier in this thread where you shared this with me LSE's acceptance rate for BA History which was very helpful. However, I am still not that sure that UCAS are reporting the correct, most useful, measure in this section. stubif's FOI would probably give more specific data. Also those universities with more demand than supply tend to give better statistics on offers on their websites.

Thanks, that's really interesting.

There are two things that could affect Clearing- 1.an increase in the number of international students meaning unis dont have to fill the gap with home students

1. Political pressure from mid/low tariff unis to reintroduce a cap on numbers.

I can't see the latter coming into effect before next year - if it happens at all- so probably next year will be fairly similar to this.

@Ventress i am definitely in the same boat as you being ‘support staff’ to a dc planning 5 top university choices. The latest plan is to put in the Oxford application, sit the TMUA and MAT and add the final choices once he knows whether or not he’s got an interview at Oxford. Not sure school will be over the moon but it kind of makes sense to me.

A friend has done FOI requests for their dc to guide Oxbridge college choices and had success 2/3 of the time.

For those of you with DC going for 5 very competitive courses there is UCAS extra if they don’t get any offers. That happens well before clearing but only courses that are not oversubscribed will appear there. (You can apply for one course at a time if you are holding no offers from late February.)

So it may be worth having at least one slightly less competitive course on the list that they would be happy with. I am thinking Bath for example along with Oxford or Cambridge , St Andrews, LSE and Durham for something like economics. Hopefully Bath would offer most people with all A* predictions even if the others wouldn’t. Maybe I am underestimating the competition for Bath unfairly but you see what I am getting at. When DS was applying a few years back there were lots of high fliers who got no offers for economics as it is so competitive at the top unis. But the likes of Cardiff, Southampton and Liverpool would be in Extra.

Thanks @ArchitectureMum. I wasn’t aware of that, it certainly gives a bit of a back up if ds’s Plan A doesn’t fall into place.

Yes and then you could get accommodation sorted earlier rather than the rush of clearing. Of course something better might pop up in clearing or they may have more luck the following year with grades in hand if they are happy to have a gap year.

Having said that about Extra another issue is that Durham and St Andrews for example make lots of their decisions quite late so it could be April or May before you know either way. At least Oxbridge give you an answer in January so you can move on.

Just to add to what @ArchitectureMum said UCAS extra can also be used if your YP gets offers but decides they don't want to go to them and reject them. So long as you're not holding any offers basically.

Thanks @MyOtherProfile.

It’s feeling more and more like a strategic chess game!

That sums it up @Muchtoomuchtodo !

My eldest made it simple by taking a gap year and applying grades in hand.

DS is applying for maths @MyOtherProfile and from what I understand (not written in the rules of the game) a year out isn’t seen as a positive thing unless you can do something very positive to keep up your maths skills.