@bluefineliner my DD had a similar profile when applying so she honed in on GCSE-heavy unis too. And Exeter as she got all AStar predictions. She hated UCAT (much preferred BMAT, and did a lot better in it but that’s history now!). She did well enough to get 4 offers so all good! From memory, this was the list she started with (before she knew UCAT result, which ended up around top 25%):
KCL, Aston, Aberdeen, Oxford, Leicester, Birmingham, Cardiff, Nottingham, HYMS, Lancaster, Liverpool, QUB, Leeds. Newcastle now also uses GCSEs (but didn’t when she applied). She also had Manchester on there too but can’t remember if they used GCSEs or not (but you’ll find out today!)
Leeds are (unhelpfully) opaque in their assessment of GCSE and UCAT, especially when you compare to QUB and Leicester for example, who are very transparent with admission statistics data.
Some of the above will have different contextual flags so worth checking that. And Cardiff often throws up unusual outcomes - I personally know 3 who got offers in the last 2 years from private SW London schools, so it is possible, even though data suggests that it prioritises Welsh applicants (which it may well do overall)
DD got an offer from QUB - they said at the open day (something along the lines of) that they valued prior academic attainment (GCSE performance in this case) above UCAT. Which I think seems to just act as an additional filter in a world where most are applying pre-A Levels, and with high predictions. They scored 9s separately (if I remember correctly) so very helpful if that’s what you have. Lovely academic staff and medical school, and Belfast is great for students (cheap!). Interview was in Belfast in early December, offer in Feb.