Mr

[KB72]

My son has predicted 4 A* (Maths, Further Maths, Physics and Chemistry). 5 9s and 4 8s in GCSE. Physics and Chem gold medalist at Olympiads and other things. He applied for Mechanical Engg at Bristol university got an alternative offer for Civil which is totally not related to Mechanical Engg. What is expected out of a child? He is distraught and wants to take a gap year but what is the guarantee. Need some advice.
Thanks

Many universities don't really consider the personal statement. It's not just Bristol.

Each department will use personal statements differently, so a comment from one person will not apply to all.

Accept Durham (it was always second only to Oxbridge in the old says anyway and is a lovely place). 3 of my children accepted Bristol over Durham and some picked easier to get into subjects for Bristol as they were keener on the place than the subject (and they did law after anyway once they graduated).
The boy will probably really like Durham. I nearly went there and am from NE England. It is a lovely part of the world.

I am sorry he has not had the offers he wanted (nor did I in my day but all these years later it has not mattered as I did fine)

Where else does he have offers from? Most people would jump at the chance of an offer from Durham, though to be fair my dd chose Bristol over Durham (for a non engineering degree).
The open day this year said how over subscribed they expected to be for engineering as a whole. DS is predicted AAAstar but decided against applying there as he thought he wouldn’t be offered a place.

I have had very positive feedback about Solomon Admissions Consulting https://www.solomonadmissions.com for US applications.

Some universities/departments are well acquainted with some sixth forms and may have formed their own opinion, based on students that have taken up places from those schools, of likely future performance. Some private schools are also extremely good at getting students to perform well at GCSE and students' GCSE grades might be considered a less accurate indicator of ability than from less well resourced schools.

That is the whole point of our education system is it not? grade based and grade based admissions. What is wrong if a school is able to extract the best out of pupils. Some of these schools are highly selective and entrance exams are tough.

The process is never pure in the sense that the person with the highest grades is always the one getting the places eg if the universities wanted they could take the exact marks in A levels, not grades and give places to those with the highest. I think the traditional UK grammar school system 11+ did that other than making sure equal numbers of girls and boys got through (girls always did better than boys at 11 years old as they are a bit more mature at that age).

Universities do not operate in quite the same way and there has always been an element of chance or other factors considered. I hope the boy ends up somewhere where he wants to go. Durham is probably better than Bristol so he might be going to do very well indeed in accepting Durham. I am from NE England and it is lovely part of the world.

He could certainly take a gap year. We have family members who did not get into Oxbridge, got extremely high A levels and then reapplied and got in the next year for example. Some people do apply over a couple of years and view it as a 2 year process but you have to be prepared to fail to get in the 2nd year too of course. Life is full of failures, some very unfair, and it is how we cope with them that counts.

University admissions have to take into account the variables in education otherwise those with advantage, ie small classes, extra support, entry to competitions supported by the school etc would make up a majority of the uni cohort and not be reflective of society.

Universities admissions teams have loads of data which means they can view an application as a whole and they know if a school historically over predicts and they know the performance of the top 10% of the cohort etc.

@XeniaDurham is probably better than Bristol

We should open a book on who will be the first, regular MumsNetter to respond to you on that 😅

No, the point of the system is to educate and inspire. The grades are one way to measure the success of that, but they need to be contextualised.

For the most popular uni courses, far more students get the minimum required grades than there are places available, so they use personal statements and other factors to differentiate. Did you read your son's personal statement? If it only talked about his academic achievements and not his interest in Mech Eng, then it would not have been in the same league as successful applicants.

Hopefully he didn't fall for the idea that the personal statement didn't matter.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/sep/12/radical-action-more-state-school-pupils-oxbridge-oxford-cambridge. it makes sense now.

Grades are used by universities and employers as an indication of future performance. Increasingly, universities and employers find themselves needing to situate grades in context because they are not as accurate as all that at indicating future performance. GCSEs are pretty easy to hack with the right combination of resources.

Well not really given your ds got an offer from Durham and that is one of the ones mentioned. And it is just a book and a recommendation, not policy.

I agree with your first statement about inspiration. Precisely that. the Students take external help to draft inspirational one and it is a very subjective without evidence. I read the PS and it was good enough to demonstrate his love for mechanical engg coming from an engg background.
Well I know where this discussion would end up. You are advantaged hence .. so and so forth and debates. which I want to avoid. Thanks for all your support.

A lot more people are predicted 4 A stars than end up getting them, especially at independent schools. I wonder if his school has a track record of over-prediction?

You are correct. I wondered this also and as a former admissions tutor I can tell you that certain schools are known for this. One wonders why they bother, as it is completely counterproductive. Is the mentality that the school gets (some of) the credit for the offer and the pupil gets the blame for not making it?

However this DS has gold medals in Maths and Physics Olympiads which ought to be significant predictors for Mech Eng.

It might be worth asking Bristol admissions if they would make him a deferred offer for MechEng or any alternative offers they could make him if he really wants Bristol. My DD had a Bristol offer and phoned them to discuss and got offered changed to a joint course to get offer a grade lower. Took a week or so. If they won't then need to consider what his next preference is. Do you know why he doesn't want Durham? Or is it more he wants Bristol so much? It maybe if you can get an answer from Bristol that would make the picture clearer.

Having got up quite close to some of the people who think over-predicting is a clever strategy to secure offers, my feeling is those people are mostly too stupid to realise that good selective universities track schools/students and can easily check out whether schools over-predict and which schools prepare their pupils well for HE.

Is it a selective school with accurate gcse predictions or is a school that is known for over inflating predictions.

That said I am surprised as Bristol scores 80% A level grades and 20% top 8 gcse grades so he should have made the first cut. They also use PS for tie break situations. It may be that they are trying to readdress their high private school intake and as mentioned they do have an extensive contextual intake. Even if they get contextual offers many of those applying will still have very high grades but just have the luxury of a low offer.

Also some schools bow to parental pressure to make higher grade predictions to ensure they get the offer in the hope they are accepted on the day having missed an offer. And as you rightly say do this too often then they lose credibility for the predictions.

Predictions are on spot

My son's school (super-selective grammar) openly over-predicts. They use stats from previous cohort outcomes to determine what the "most likely" projected grade is, then they add one. But their logic for doing this is sound ...

1. Statistical predictions will always let down individual students who outperform their mocks. Nobody can predict which students will overperform and which will underperform, so it is fairest to assume everyone will overperform. This position is backed up by Ofsted guidance to teachers which says schools should predict the most positive achievable outcomes.
2. Students who get aspirational offers are more likely to work harder to achieve the grades they need.
3. Every year some students don't meet their conditional offers but nevertheless are able to take up their places because courses are not full.
4. The method is openly explained to students and they are advised to apply for a range of courses based on their aspirational predictions, their "most likely" projections, and also contingency courses, so they are not left without a place.

It seems to work for this school. It routinely gets many Oxbridge offers and very few students who need to use Clearing.

They did noticeably make the second round of mocks very hard to scare them into doing more work, which isn't great for wellbeing, but it is a super-selective school, so expected.

Do you mean that the school’s track record is noted for accuracy, OP? That is the only thing universities can go by.

I say this as someone generally supportive of your DS

Where do your DS's GCSEs fit in the context of the rest of his year at school? If there are a lot with mainly 9s then it might have affected his "desirability" to the admissions team. I also agree re the predictions - if his school is known as one that over predicts then even if his are spot on (and the Olympiad golds would support that) there is a risk that he is affected by the perception. Back in the dark ages when I was applying my school refused to tell anyone what their predicted grades were as they had a reputation (amongst the relatively small number of unis we tended to apply to) for being very accurate and they didn't want parental pressure jeopardising that.

@Londonmummy66if your school wouldn't tell you your predicted grades, how did you ascertain which universities to apply to ?