Applying to a uni you know is struggling - thoughts?

[BobtheFrog]

As a parent it feels like a really challenging time to guide a daughter or son to their Uni choices - especially when so many Unis seem to be in trouble (>70% now?), but some aren't being as open as others about that.

Are folks applying to Unis in trouble anyway, hoping it will all be okay? Or are folks only applying to the ones who seem to be doing okay (the other c30%?), thus making those "safer" Unis even more competitive this year?

My DD has nice Firm and Insurance offers on the table (but pretty tough grades for her) and I have been looking for a couple of options for Clearing in case things don't go her way.

Both Clearing Unis of interest are being open about their struggles (which seems like a good thing) - but if applications keep going down it can only get worse for them

Every uni is in trouble. The whole of the HE sector is a timebomb. So I don't think you can single out one particular uni as one not to apply to. Some unis are better at hiding the extent of their issues (for now). But the picture is changing daily.

DD has a place at Oxford Brooks for Sept which apparently has one of the biggest deficits but I'm not worried.

I dont think they are all in trouble, ONS reports about 70% in deficit so 30% presumably aren't. One offer my DD has is Warwick and they seem pretty sound

My assumption is that the issues may be more granular anyhow, eg STEM courses cost more to deliver, while other courses not so much

I get that but for those who aren't in deficit now how long will that last? With the big drop in international applicants and the no real rise in tuition fees when costs are spiralling? A few universities will have the reserves to add as a buffer but no university will want to carry on operating while making a loss without looking to make savings.

So it depends what your actual concern is? I think very few (if any) universities are going to go bust. Some weaker positioned ones might merge. A higher number will drop courses. An even higher number will drop modules. An even higher number will cut staff.

The latter couple of points will probably be experienced by all universities at some point in the not too distant future. Even those 30% non deficit ones. The forecast for Septs international students is eve more dire than this year. So I would say that they're all in some degree of trouble.

So are you worried about the university going under or are you worried about staffing and module cuts and the experience not being as good?

Wouldn’t brother me. The vast majority are in trouble

When they are in trouble, they often cut particular courses that aren't doing much for their numbers. So watch out for that.

Anyway - in the event of a uni closing, they would likely help the students transfer. So if you end up in clearing, just crack on and go to a uni, even if struggling.

Good points, my concerns are probably at the more granular department / programme level because a Uni going bust is almost impossible IMO (worked in HE for 13 years, I don't think there is a mechanism by which that can happen even if creditors forced a collapse to sell off assets)

I do worry:
(i) programmes may get cancelled, esp low number ones (eg some humanities) or expensive courses (eg some STEM)
(ii) staff morale in unis / departments is being devastated by all this and the student experience will suffer as a consequence

I work at a university and the entire sector is in trouble. There’s no avoiding it. Just encourage your child to be flexible and to enjoy all the things university has to offer. Entirely true that some programmes or courses might be different or stop running but every university will be prioritising students as far as possible so your child might not even notice the issues!

do worry:
(i) programmes may get cancelled, esp low number ones (eg some humanities) or expensive courses (eg some STEM)
(ii) staff morale in unis / departments is being devastated by all this and the student experience will suffer as a consequence

Sadly I don't think there's any way of forecasting this, especially not the 2nd point. It could happen anywhere, even at Warwick.

Programmes are very unlikely to get cancelled without substantial notice, and they should teach a course out. Though I appreciate that would rely on staff staying and morale being good. But remember that reputation is everything in the sector. So would be a last resort type step. I'd have thought unlikely for a STEM type subject to be dropped just because it's expensive to teach because of the prestige for the HEI of having such a subject. Unless there was a significant drop in student numbers with no likelihood of improvement which has been the curse of MFL.

I'm an SL at an expensive to run subject at a HEI which is financially struggling. I'm not worried that they're going to cut the course. I do worry that if staff take the currently offered VR then they won't be replaced but I know as a team we will do everything we can to minimise the impact on students.

Agree with others, the whole sector is in trouble. Ask things at the Offer Holder days like how much of the content is delivered in person. There was a story on here a couple of years ago where the Student had signed up for a course, also signed up for accommodation for a year only to arrive and find out that all lectures were online and the building for their course was closed.

After ensuring that the teaching is going to be mainly in person and checking the modules I would just go with the one that your DC wants to go to the most.

My DD is at a 'struggling' uni. I am not worried, as a PP said, all unis are struggling.

I can see huge disruption in the form of strikes kicking off again and cuts to student services/support. Lack of field trips/opportunities/career support too.

As others have said ‘I think it depends on the course’ as unis may cut less popular courses. My dd is about to finish her course which is a less popular one, some unis have mentioned cutting it so I was a little worried.

All HE is having an awful time, some are at more risk than others. DH has just stepped down as head of a STEM dept at a very decent University and taken early retirement. Even Cambridge, two of DH mates are academics there has some sort of reorganisation going on. There are 10 that are apparently at real risk of closing down, lists and info can be found online. STEM subjects are less likely to be cut as they can attract funding from industry.

I think currently they are all under pressure financially. Those I would avoid are the ones quite obviously cutting back on courses. Cardiff in particular - nursing is going, Maths is being combined with CS (someone may know more about this than I do). Ancient History is being phased out and I heard also about MFLs. It sounds like the whole place is slowly being flushed away. This is what I'd avoid going towards, the rest seem to be floating it a bit better.

I think most universities are under financial pressure but they are coping in different ways.

I agree with PP that disciplines attracting grant income have some protection. In this sense STEM is in relatively good shape. In England the popular degree programmes at least attract teaching income. In STEM this isn’t enough but in other disciplines it probably is, so popular programmes have some protection. The smaller degree programmes in the Humanities and Arts are potentially the most vulnerable.

Senior Leadership Teams also have varying relations with their staff. Ideally restructuring can be achieved with Voluntary Severance, pay and hiring freezes, temporary pay cuts, efficiencies, dip into reserves, etc. All of this is much easier when the SLT take the biggest pay cuts, agree measures with the unions, etc.

But this is rare. We’re seeing edicts from on high, threats of compulsory redundancy and strike votes, the most recent at Edinburgh the other day and by a huge margin.

It’s a difficult question

In fairness to Cardiff ancient history and mfl are fairly niche with small numbers so I guess not viable.

nursing is a much more expensive degree to run than an average degree but more importantly numbers of applicants are plummeting nationally due to people not wanting to work in the shitshow of the nhs. There’s 3 universities currently fairly close to each other with nursing courses and I imagine all 3 are seriously under capacity. So not surprising one has decided to fold.

maths is more worrying. No idea why they’d pull it but there may be a local reason such as lack of applications?

i work at a top university and its numbers are appalling. Something will have to change in the next five years. Lots of jobs cuts coming but the admin of the university is already in dire straights with huge staff turnover due to burnout.

You're right that the concern is at programme level but it's difficult to get a good sense of that from outside.
My department actually has a 20% increase in applications, not everyone is badly affected. My university has been very proactive in winnowing programmes though, was painful at the time but it's probably helping now.

All universities are experiencing financial difficulties and have taken measures to implement cutbacks.

Some universities have financial reserves in place and are unlikely to go bankrupt. Oxford and Cambridge are wealthy and other universities have significant financial reserves in place. Edinburgh, KCL, Glasgow, LSE, Manchester, Imperial, Liverpool and UCL make up the top ten in terms of endowments.

List of universities in the United Kingdom by endowment

Many universities don't have these reserves. The financial outlook for many universities has worsened significantly in recent months, increasing the risk of universities becoming bankrupt, according to the university regulator.

https://www.ft.com/content/b51294e2-bcc3-4ec7-b9f5-3c82ca76b3df

It’s not impossible at all. They’ll be wound up like any other organisations

the ofs is supposed to have credible plans in the place so students can continue their studies- both having integrated the university’s Plan to ensure it’s realistic and their own plans to merge universities etc. but I don’t think they’re very good at it.

the universities in deficit now have been for years. The ones not in deficit are probably in operating deficit. You just have to take the risk really

Most of these won’t be able to access them to keep the universities operating activities afloat. But it’s very true that the richer they are the longer it’ll take to go under

once a few universities have gone under the market will start to stabilise, reducing the risk of the rest going under