Part of the timing decisions, I think is part of their recruitment strategy. It’s about maximising the uni outcome in terms of the optimum number if students and the best students they can fill the places with. It’s not about maximising individual student welfare.
Those that can’t afford to be so picky, often give offers much quicker and will give to everyone or very almost everyone who has predictions/grades that meet the standard offer.
Ofhers that have more applicants and are more popular, still know they need to make significantly more offers than places to fill….as they won’t be everyone’s top choice. In the middle ranks of RG for popular courses, some talk openly about putting applicants into ‘tiers’ with a candidate with 3 x A star being top tier. They will be offered first and anyone applying with those grades will get offers. They then work down the tiers until they’ve made the number if offers they think they need to in order to fill. As people start firming and insuring in the new year and the picture becomes a bit clearer, they might make further offers if more than expected decline.
The really top unis, and courses that are so significantly over applied for, who end up rejecting some candidates with seemingly perfect applications (3 x A star plus great PS) are often offering up to the deadline for offers as they try to maximise their outcomes. Often they won’t make offers before the end of Jan and if they do, it will only be to very top candidates (but quite why it’s some and not others who are equally good is unclear….maybe some element of purely selecting X number randomly of those top applicants) and then they keep gradually offering and are responding to candidates firming and insuring, so they can get their numbers as right as possible. Doing this means lots of offers have to be given late. It’s for the uni numbers’ benefit, not the individual students. It’s a business and it’s vital they get their numbers right, so this is why they do it.
The thing that complicates it a bit for me, is that all unis know it’s difficult to know what actual student performance will be. They know 80% of predicted grades are wrong, with most being too optimistic. The top unis know that the 3 x A star candidates have their pick if unis and may well have another place that is their top choice and won’t come. So whilst those candidates have the most leeway to miss their prediction by a grade or 2 and still hit the standard offer, they also might firm elsewhere. And as some do that, the uni can offer more places. But the interesting thing is that some of these very top unis decline some 3 x A star candidates and make an offer to a 2 Astar candidate or 1 Astar candidate or someone who ‘only’ have predictions at the standard offer level. I think this is about knowing those candidates have less options and are likely to hold less offers from very top places. They are more likely to firm if they get an offer as they are likely to have less top choices. And so unis want to give some offers to these candidates too as they are more likely to convert to actual bums on seats….if they make the grades.
And all unis know that come results day, if results are poorer than hoped, they can still take firmed or insured applicants who failed to meet their offer. The firms in particular are emotionally invested in the place, will have applied for accommodation and want to come. And are likely to come if accepted. Unis hope to not have to take too many via this route, but are very willing to do so if they need to. And they see it as preferable to the uncertainty of Clearing applicants, who in results day are in the phone to many unis, receiving many offers and likely then going elsewhere. Many will have to accept candidates who didn’t meet their offer AND go to Clearing too. Because most students don’t achieve their predicted grades and lots don’t meet their offer.
It’s all a numbers game and unis working with incomplete information as they need to offer based on predicted not actual grades…and until results day (or when the embargo starts) no-one knows the result s and until results day, no-one knows if applicants will convert to bums on seats.
As people often say, a post-qualification system would be better in lots of ways. But we don’t have it for various reasons, so whilst we exist in a system with pre-qualification applications, this numbers game will continue and Unis need to play it.
I suppose what candidates can take from it is a number if things; - predicted grades matter a lot in getting offers and at top unis and most popular courses you might need in excess of the standard offer to secure a standard offer (the amount if unis in this position is probably smaller than most think)
- Many unis will still take you if you miss by a grade. Again this won’t apply or might not apply to the very top few courses at very top places, but a surprising number of very good places will end up taking some of their firmed candidates who miss their offer.
- The more popular the course, the longer you’re likely to have to wait. Again, this is probably a smaller number if unis than people imagine.
- Clearing has many opportunities for those who are ready to ring at 8am on results day. Many unis will have places available on a surprising number of courses, including very good and popular courses. They will want to fill up and ‘bargains’ are available with grades which would have never secured an offer at standard application time. But the best of these will be small in number and gone by 9am, so a plan, with phone numbers, actual A Level results to hand (and ideally module results I r elation to grade boundaries) will put candidates in the best position to secure the places.
- Unfortuantley its a system where those in ‘the know’ have better opportunities. Those with info and good advice are better placed to apply aspirationally and secure the best places that their grades can achieve. Too many have limited advice and could have had a better place than they go to, if they had understood some of this stuff when applying, when firming and insuring and when deciding what to do on results day.