70% of inoverisities facing large deficits -it's the newer universities that are going to suffer

[mids2019]

So I was listening to a radio 4 piece about the parlour state of university finances and I was struck that no mention was made that it wasn't the Oxford and Cambridges of this country that faced the realistic prospect of mass redundancies and department closures but the newer universities.

Mention was made of course duplication in subjects such as English and the need to rationalise but these closures would be occuring let's face it in non RG universities in all lijelihood.

When debating university prospects shouldn't we be open that it is is not a full sector problem but a problem that predominantly hits the newer universities which have perhaps overwxpanded?

You'd be very surprised by the data, then! Sort the table by net liquidity and have a look...

https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/finances/kfi

Absolutely!!!! Great link @PhotoDad

@mids2019 you’d be equally shocked - if you bothered to look - by which universities actually have significantly expanded their numbers.

This is probably the report you heard being discussed @mids2019

https://www.officeforstudents.org.uk/publications/financial-sustainability-of-higher-education-providers-in-england-november-2024-update/

only 11 or so pages and worth a read through. The table on international students numbers - again a lot more nuanced - worth a look. Then cross ref with HESA finance and student numbers and identifying who is going to have problems is relatively straightforward.

The HESA finance data can also show who from a fee income perspective is highly reliant on international post grad tuition fee income.

@mids2019 This is a live page of all the redundancies, restructures, reorganisations, and closures taking place across the sector at the moment: https://qmucu.org/qmul-transformation/uk-he-shrinking/

Of course restructures and reorganisations happen even in good times, as part of strategic change programmes, so inclusion on the list doesn't necessarily mean a university is in trouble.

Can you save us some of the effort and suggest which institutions might be in trouble?!

Can you save us some of the effort and suggest which institutions might be in trouble?!

Just look at the link photodsd posted - will
Take you less than 20 seconds - 10 of which to verify you're human.

Which radio 4 programme was this discussed on? As I'd like to find it and listen

This is eye opening

It was the pm program I think Evan Davis

What is considered a good/ stable number of net liquidity days for a university?

I looked at those with 100 or fewer and there were several well known older universities there. I don't know what level of net liquidity is a concern though.

I work at a 'safe' uni and it is largely down to reputation rather than any key strategy. We also get millions in philanthropic donations from alumni that offset losses. The newer universities just can't pull that in.

Durham and St Andrews are both looking a bit shaky from that table. For St Andrews I guess the international student visa situation has hit quite hard.

I also work at a ‘safe’ university. It is a ‘new’ university, but has solid finances in part because it was less reliant on international students. It also went through the type of cost cutting many universities are currently doing a number of years ago. Many more prestigious universities have been working in what is going to become an outdated model. Unfortunately, I can also say that this new model puts horrendous pressure on academic and support staff, because there are simply no longer the staff to manage the workload. What the government and often the public don’t seem to understand is that academics have had their pay cut in real terms for years, their workloads have increased dramatically and students come in so much less prepared than they were 20 years ago. Cuts to funding often means universities have to cut ever more vital services like counselling. It isn’t about new vs. Prestigious/older universities, it is about shocking under resourcing for decades and a funding system that needs to be radically transformed. Sorry - rant over 😊

Surprised to see the uni I work at doing well

The report which @boys3 linked to uses 30 days as its "danger zone" (my words not theirs).

@CurledUpLikeADog

These are the institutions on the HESA table with 30 days or less liquidity. I haven't cross-checked with the international student breakdown. Many are teeny-tiny, but I've bolded the ones which I had heard of... These are in order, least stable first.

Escape Studios, Cranfield University, Dyson Technical Training Limited, Leeds Conservatoire, Amity Global Education, Trinity College Bristol, London South Bank University, The University of Law, Arden University, University of Durham, Trinity Laban Conservatoire of Music and Dance, University Academy 92 Limited, Futureworks, MLA College, Cambridge Arts and Sciences Limited, Study Group, BIMM University, Central Film School London, Cliff College, London Studio Centre, Bird College, Kaplan Open Learning (Essex) Limited, The Institute of Ismaili Studies, Aberystwyth University, The Islamic College, Kaplan International Colleges U.K. Limited

The HESA data is mostly from 2023 from what I could see?

The place i recently left was putting a lot of eggs in the 2024/5 international student basket and unfortunatley for them the numbers were about 2/3rds what they planned for. Institutions that made realistic predictions or are less reliant on international students (like maybe have massive endownments) or still have strong international appeal no matter how many visa restrictions are in place will do better.

Durham would be the big shock if it went under from that list.

Welsh government might prop up Aberystwyth?

The rest are mostly quite specialist.

Surprised at Durham. I know a few people there and they seem to think all's well. Maybe they had a shock last year and planned better for this?

Yes, the HESA data is from last financial year. What's worrying is that the OfS report's main theme is that universities were much too optimistic about 2023/4 and 2024/5.

@PhotoDad ah right, so the table is really intake from 2 years back now? Definitely my old place had a nasty shock when they didn't get the numbers the hoped for this year. I don't think it was their fault per se, but they really were literally banking on year on year increases in international numbers.

That link is quite eye opening regarding finances!

However, my gut feeling is that the 'big names' at the most risk won't be allowed to go under. They are just too prestigious.

Nevertheless I am glad DS's choices aren't down the bottom of the list.

@DogDaysNeverEnd So was everyone! And, yes, the numbers take a while to filter through to official reports. I have no particular comment on this, but as my DS is currently applying for uni it's a factor I have mentioned to him. I just find it frustrating that so much of the discussion seems to ignore the actual figures that are available! (And@boys3 knows even more places to look for stats than I do.)

So the thread was started on the basis of lazy assumptions about the situation which turn out to differ quite a bit from the data. Helpful. No wonder so many posters on here have swallowed the Russell Group marketing spiel wholesale. Anyone read the piece about Oxford getting most of its teaching done by casual staff on less than minimum wage?

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2024/nov/16/oxford-deliveroo-contracts-tutorials-full-time-staff-gig-economy

But sure, keep talking about how important it is for posters' kids to go to 'top universities' and starting threads speculating that others may go bust.

Thanks for all the links (yes I am placemarking until I can look on a big screen).

What has struck me, while touring campuses and looking at student accom, is that room costs don't necessarily correlate with local housing costs and/or modernity of accommodation. Not that I want them to, but adding £5-£10/ week per student room might help a fair few of the Unis out.

I'm definitely going to be encouraging DD to go to offer holder days.