Sons UCAS forms

[StrumpersPlunkett]

Hi folks,
DS has completed his form and school have advised him to put a crisis choice on his form.
We are reasonably certain that he shouldn't do this as he is not going to accept offers.
If he doesn't get into the places he has on his form now he wants to choose a totally different course.
Is there a different reason he would put a crisis choice on his form?

He wants to study Physics with astrophysics

I guess in case his a level results run out so badly that he doesn’t have the grade to switch paths. But if it is that bad, there is clearing I guess

Isn't the usual rule something like 2 aspirational, 2 reasonable 1 insurance?

Crisis sounds a bit dramatic, if they just mean insurance, eg ABB if predicted Astar A A??

(NB not up to speed my DDs haven't done uni)

Also, might be the general advice they give all students. But if he doesn’t have another target option, might be better to fill the space than leave it empty? Maybe choose a uni that offers the alternative path he fancies too, to give possibilities for switching course if he needs to?

He has put 5 on his form. Each his slightly less requirements.
AAA then AAA then AAA then 2 at AAB
He is predicted AAA For him AAB is his insurance offer.

Sorry OP your post has been messed up by MN formatting! But if he is predicted A star AA then AAB is more than reasonable as an insurance choice.

I don't know about how far below insurances usually are.
Is one grade down in only 1 A level considered sufficiently insurance?

I think that is terrible advice from school. He should apply to universities he wants to attend, and where offers are realistic based on his predicted grades. If a crisis happens he can get in touch on results day and explain why he has mitigating circumstances for missing his offer, and he can go through clearing.

I have had two kids go through this, from excellent private and state schools btw. It sounds like your ds’s school is reducing choice for students and placing loss-avoidance (perhaps for the institution) ahead of likely increased chances and choice for students.

think he might have picked something a grade down in two tho - or even all three if his PG are Astar Astar A - it's hard to tell bc of the bold and italic

It's good to have a realistic insurance option, if there is a course which would be acceptable that has lower requirements, but I don't think there is any point in applying to Universities which you've got no intention of accepting under any circumstances. It just creates pointless work for the Admissions team. In your DS's shoes I would probably have looked for somewhere that offers ABB but if there is definitely nowhere he considers suitable then there's no point in listing somewhere just to placate school.
He needs to make a contingency plan though. What's he going to do if he doesn't get the grades - go through clearing, take a year out and reapply etc etc? Hopefully that won't happen of course but sadly it does sometimes. A child of one of my former colleagues was predicted Astar Astar A and was holding AAA and Astar AB offers but actually got BBB, was rejected from both and had no other plan.I'm not sure what they're doing now but it's certainly been a very stressful time for them. Having a plan for the worst case scenario doesn't have to mean applying for somewhere you don't want to go at this stage but I think everyone should have thought through what they would do if they don't get their hoped for grades.

Yeh good advice from @MrsAvocet

My dd PG AAA/B had offers of AAA and ABB IIRC but got BCC. We had a day on the phones to clearing and it ended well but kinda wish we had done some legwork ahead of time.

Schools are in the business of covering their backs and managing their statistics and they absolutely hate having students with no offers and nowhere to go, even if the student and their family are sanguine and quite prepared to take a gap year and reapply for a different subject.

I agree with you OP, assuming I'm reading it right that he is predicted A star, A, A. Realistically he will prob get at least three offers and even if he added a crisis CCC, presumably wouldn't insure that uni anyway. Wherever he insures, if he does miss slightly, will in all likelihood still accept him given the subject. (Some years ago, but dc's RG accepted him with three dropped grades for the same subject...!)

Hopefully relevant / helpful, my daughter is completing her UCAS forms right now, she has 2 aspirational, 2 "safe". She will hopefully firm and insure from these.

The 5th slot we are using for a Uni/course she would be happy with if results day goes badly and she has to go in to Clearing - but she will likely not insure with #5

Three reasons we have done this
(1) thinking through the lower grade scenarios encourages the conversation about what she will do if Firm & Insurance reject on results day.
(2) It creates a list of Clearing options / priorities ready for results day if needed. She has four acceptable options to ring on results day, if needed.
(3) it means the preferred Clearing option uni already has her application details - might not matter, but you never know . . .

FWIW we also went through the "what if you get really high results" question and it didn't change the choices, but we did agree at what point she would withdraw from 2025 entry

There is no point putting a uni down that he doesn't want to go to. So long as he is confident of getting the grades he should go with his gut instincts. My sons Lowest offer was A star A star A so this was his insurance. All was fine and he got his firm choice, I guess it was a gamble but he was confident that he would get the grades and if he didn't a decent enough course would be in clearing anyway. Good luck 🤞🏼

Whether uni will accept a student if they miss the grades offered on results day seems quite variable.

My own (admittedly limited) personal experience is that dropping one grade at a top 10 uni with a competitive course will get a rejection on results day. If the course isn't so competitive then dropping one, possibly two grades will still be okay

Mid ranked unis seem to prefer to offer a place to someone who actually applied to them (even if they are down a couple of grades), compared to someone trying to get a place through Clearing - pretty sure I have seen stats to show the drop out rate is much higher with Clearing students, but don't know where I read that

His choices are fine in terms of hard to get down to easier. My son even firmed a back up once he had to be down to 2 or however the system works which was the same as his Bristol offer as he was so sure he would get Bristol - he firmed Bristol (he rejected Durham). That was very risky of him but has always been a good predictor and good at exam technique and it was all fine. My other children wisely when it got to the firming one and back up were more sensible.

If DS is predicted A star AA, which is how I read OP’s post, then AAB is two grades off.

Two grades off has always been my recommendation for a reasonable Insurance choice. However with PGs now trending so high, it is starting to seem that in some cases three grades off may be safer. This is down to the accuracy of the school’s PGs.

The other thing to consider is that an applicant’s notion of an acceptable degree programme frequently broadens when faced with the reality of unexpectedly weak A level results. Being left with only Clearing choices is not ideal. Of course, if the candidate is clear that a gap year is the preferred option then all is well.

Best wishes to DS

Crisis choice seems a bit of an odd term and makes me wonder if the school routinely over predicts grades. My job is to help our students with their applications and I normally advise them to apply along the lines of the previously mentioned, 2 aspirational, 2 1 grade below and 1 2 grades below. All of which they should be happy to attend. Then don't make a final decision until just before the exams start so they have a very realistic idea of what they're likely to achieve (our school does mocks in December and March). However, our school are normally fairly accurate with predictions at 50% when the national average is around 16% correct, 75% over and the rest under predicted.

Take a good look at GCSE grades against A level predictions (and see if these are the same as will go on the application) and then check against the historical entry grades for the course he wants.

Thanks all we have talked at length about the plan if he gets no offers at all and misses those on results day.

He is completely calm about adding an option on the 26th Feb if needed.
You have been so kind. It feels enormous but we are encouraging him to shoot for the stars if he feels he can achieve it.

"Take a good look at GCSE grades against A level predictions (and see if these are the same as will go on the application) " how do you do this please?

Cant find any newer research but apparently GCSE grades are a good indicator of likely A Level grade - but only statistically, not child by child - so not sure how useful this is in real life

2016 UCAS report

In my mind (not based on anything but my own thinking) the insurance place is one grade down in each subject. So if predicted Astar AA, insurance would be ABB. If predicted BBB, insurance would be CCC etc. So what would be realistically achieved on tough exams.

I would have thought insurance with a drop of two (or more) grades in any one subject would be too much. So predicted Astar AA, insurance wouldn't need to be BBB. Or predicted BBB insurance wouldn't be CDD. UNLESS they really loved the uni/ course.

They don't have to go to the highest grades they can get into, it should be where they want to go. But they also shouldn't put somewhere they don't want to go down!

What crisis grades are the school saying?

did find this, 2020 to 2022 data that show % achieving specific A level grades based on the GCSE grade, subject by subject (on page 11)

If lower tariff universities make an offer they are indeed likely to be amenable towards applicants who approach them in Clearing, even if the applicant turned them down as Insurance earlier in the UCAS cycle. So, yes, one strategy is to have a single lower tariff course on the UCAS form, get an offer, not Insure it and have it in the background as back up should both the Firm and Insurance offers not be met. This allows applicants to take more risks with their Firm and Insurance offers.

This is interesting thanks, and I hadn't heard or considered this before. Roughly what would you class as a "lower tariff" university in this instance? Anything outside the top 20/30? Offering grades of ABB/ BBC/ CCC, or lower than that?