Insurance choice - how much pragmatism needed?

[RoseZinfandel]

Wondering how people go about choosing insurance choices.

DC hasn’t applied yet, but is planning application.

Top choice (Newcastle) published offer is AAB, which I think is realistic-aspirational.

Second favourite (Liverpool) published offer is BBB, but they don’t guarantee accommodation to insurance.

University in commuting distance (Manchester) published offer is ABB. No need for insurance accommodation as could commute, it’s about an hour and a quarter away. But DC doesn’t like the course as much.

Other option is choose a university with a lower offer that guarantees insurance accommodation, but they seem like hen’s teeth!

So the questions we are wrestling with are:

How likely is firm choice to take you if you drop one grade? Do universities publish this information anywhere?

Is having your insurance just one grade below your firm too close to be useful? When I applied 100yrs ago, we were advised 3 grades below, but perhaps things are different now.

How much of a nightmare is it trying to find accommodation if you end up somewhere via insurance? If anyone had experience of Liverpool in particular that would be really helpful - also interested to know about Glasgow, Leeds and Cardiff.

Has your child had offers yet? I know it's important to think about all you have mentioned, but some of this might be a bit over-thinking - surely it's best to wait for offers, and then you pick firm and insurance. I know people have favourites, and predicted grades might match typical offers published on UCAS, but this doesn't guarantee an offer.

It probably will with MFL involved!

This advice has been really helpful, DC, DH and I have talked it all through, and it’s been useful to look at things from different perspectives.

DC has decided not to put Manchester on the list, as doesn’t want to go there at all, which I think was a really big decision to make. Reading will be the 5th choice instead (despite being a campus uni!) DC’s school ucas deadline is the week they go back in Jan, but I understood submission can be up to Jan 31st?

DC definitely loves the course at Newcastle the most, so that will be first choice if offered - it is for combined honours, so you don’t actually say which subjects you want on the ucas form. So wanting to study MFL won’t make it easier to get an offer, as there are loads of subjects on the list.
If no offer from Newcastle, then Liverpool is top choice (which in some ways would make things easier all round).

Liverpool and Glasgow would both be a joint degree German and archaeology, so maybe languages being less popular would work in DC favour for an offer there.

Cardiff and Reading it would just be doing language modules alongside the main degree subject, less ideal as DC would like to do some culture modules too, but I suppose we’ll see what happens.

As he seems to mostly want archaeology and German how is he writing his PS? Why not actually apply for this degree instead of combined? You are right, the Archaeology and German is more straightforward. With combined, how can he pursue archaeology? Or does he just want Newcastle? Many do.

@MrsAvocet Same issue here. DD got an unexpected contextual offer of ABB from Bristol, which she may end up firming. Exeter (ABB) or Warwick (AAB) were supposed to be her insurance choices. Predicted grades are AstarAstarA so ABB ought to be fine, but if she firms Bristol she is just going to have to make Exeter her insurance and hope for the best! I guess it is a nice problem for our DC to have.

@PumpkinKnitter , is your DD using her five choices? And how does ABB compare to her PGs? That is important.

At minimum I would urge her to consult the CUG to get a sense of historical flex in the Exeter offers. (She shouldn’t count on getting any flex in the contextual offer from Bristol, as many admissions tutors take the view that the flex has been provided.) Then she needs to think whether putting down some other options now seems preferable to going into Clearing or taking an unintended Gap Year, when weighed against this risk.

Usually using your five options now is better than going into Clearing, when you have less control. I think a Gap Year can be a great idea for anyone, but it isn’t my opinion that matters.

Sorry, @PumpkinKnitter . I see your DD has outstanding PGs. I was trying to read and reply whilst hugely distracted. That does take a lot of the pressure off. However if Bristol is her first choice and in the very unlikely event she doesn’t make the offer, everything I said becomes relevant. Best wishes to her

Offers depend on course too. Eg MFL just isn’t as competitive as CS! I would also look at breadth of options available and where a student might like to live. DD found what she liked changed from school to y2 uni with more experience and maturity. She was glad uni had a breadth of options and also that they suited her new found interests!

Thanks @poetryandwine. She has used all five options and thought them through carefully in terms of grades - Oxford (aspirational, rejected), Edinburgh (realistic 1st choice, oversubscribed course, likely offer if she gets one is AAA or AAB), Bristol (expected AAA offer, got ABB), with Warwick (AAB) and Exeter (ABB) as insurance choices. The low Bristol offer is great, but kind of messed up the insurance plan! If she doesn't get ABB she will probably have to take a gap year and rethink what she wants to do.

Well, @PumpkinKnitter , with those PGs Edinburgh seems a realistic first choice. Unfortunately many of their Schools are known for making leisurely decisions.

Is DD genuinely more enthusiastic about Bristol than Edinburgh?

@poetryandwine Edinburgh is very much her preference, but only about 30% get offers for her course so Bristol is her back up - insurance if she gets the Edinburgh offer, firm if she doesn’t. Hoping her PGs and good GCSEs and PS are enough, but we know these things can be unpredictable.

Sounds a great plan, @PumpkinKnitter

I hope she will hear from Edinburgh before too long. I am optimistic for her.

I second the pp who says to be very cautious of being stuck with a uni with no uni owned accommodation. Being a fresher in accommodation with people in different years and from different unis is very hard work socially.

submissions can be up till then, but that’s submission by school. Your son needs to submit to school to be checked and have the reference added, so he needs to work to their deadline ideally, especially this close to final deadline!

@PumpkinKnitter which course is your DD wanting to do?

I have a DC at Bristol, they were offered in October and waited until May to get their Edinburgh offer. Once rejected from Oxford it was equal between Bristol and Edinburgh In that time Bristol did a great job of the hard sell and so eventually they plumped for Bristol.

having got friends with DC in both locations bristol was defo the right choice for their personality, but I’d be very very reluctant to have it a second choice. Accommodation is very difficult to come by.

@RoseZinfandel There is no reason why MFLs cannot be mentioned on ps. If he’s likely to choose them at Newcastle. Surely the ps is there to say what you are good at. He’s presumably talking about MFLs for other options?

@PegasusReturns Thank! She wants to study neuroscience. Edinburgh is definitely her first choice - she loves both the city and the uni. They sent an email saying they hope to make decisions before the end of March, but it could be May, so she just has to wait and see. I take your point about Bristol as insurance being a risk for accommodation. She does really like the course there though. We are going to go to offer days at both Exeter and Bristol before she makes a decision. I actually think Exeter might be a better fit for her, but she hasn’t visited and doesn’t know enough about it. York was her original back up plan, but they withdrew her course and she had to make some last minute decisions.

@TizerorFizz yes, you’re right, good point, languages are mentioned quite a bit on DC’s personal statement which of course Newcastle will read.
Statement is already written, DC was just dithering about the final 5 choices, but seems happy enough now, so I think we just have to go for it!

Well Im not entirely sure Newcastle will read the PS. It depends on how they select. Some universities use them as tie breakers but mentioning MFL really won’t harm an application. Good luck to him.

Wait, what? Universities don’t use the personal statement for selection?! Why do you have to write one then?

@RoseZinfandel Why indeed? Some do of course. Bristol, for example, clearly say how they select. For lots of courses there it’s the correct A level for the course (eg maths or mfl if required etc), then predicted grades for A level and often GCSEs are 20% of the weighting. They tell you the PS is used to split similarly qualified dc. They don’t say how often this happens. The unis and courses that interview clearly read it. So have you checked what the unis/courses say about selection that your dc has selected? Some unis that are not selecting won’t refer to the ps. Other ones will but you cannot assume all will.

Also the PS is changing to a standard series of questions in the future. There’s always been a concern that some dc don’t write a good ps! So now they will all get the same prompts.

@RoseZinfandel some definitely do!! A few university departments definitely don’t but others within the same university may. For her course York definitely didn’t as DD had an offer within 24hrs, whereas Bath emailed her to say two people read them and to expect the process to take a while. She’s at York and some friends on other courses were interviewed as well as having PS. So it’s very course dependant I think and probably how oversubscribed it is plus how close the applicant is to the minimum grades. Maybe Bath bother less with 3Astar predictions for an AAA course but read every PS of students with predictions nearer min grade requirement. Maybe!

I always think it’s a shame courses don’t specify what they do. It’s likely Bath is more competitive than Newcastle though. However as PS goes to all unis, applicants should know if they are used and, if do, when. Tie breaker may well be common on competitive courses. If a course offers to everyone who has the predicted grades, why read hundreds of PS’s? To be clear. Do not assume they are read everywhere but do write a good one in case they are!

If a course is always in clearing are they going to not select someone based on an iffy PS? They will offer to that applicant. Some courses ask for AAA and then take applicants below that at clearing. Will the ps matter at that stage? It really does depend on the course.

Just wanted to thank everyone for their advice on this thread, we read it all, and really appreciated it. Application confirmed submitted, DC is happy with final choices, we just have to wait now…

Fingers crossed @RoseZinfandel !