How do you work out a “safe” and a “teach” uni for UCAS

[LeonardTheLeopard]

My child’s school advises applying for two reach and two safe unis but doesn’t say how you know what is a reach and a safe choice.

if you are predicted AAB and was to study politics then is an AAB course safe or reach? What is safe???

Very Safe bbc

Safe abc or Abb

Assuming you mean predicted is AstarAB, stretch would be Astar Astar A/B, safe AAB or ABB

Sorry, I typed stars and it thought I wanted to do that to bold my words!

The prediction is A star (politics), A (history) and B (chemistry). Plus a B in French AS but nobody seems to take account of AS.

Don't they subscribe to one of the software programmes like Unifrog? Those give you this information. Ask.

It's worth clarifying the prediction. There's "this is the grade we think you are most likely to get" and there's "we think you've got a 30/40% chance of getting an A, so we'll put that as your prediction for UCAS". Some schools do actually name both a "most likely" and an "optimistic prediction". It's normal to be a bit generous about predictions for UCAS, because if predicting them a B means they don't get an offer, and then they get the A, that would be unfortunate. Obviously if all three predictions are "with the wind in the right direction", then that would probably be your "reach" level.

Interesting. My ds predicted A star for politics, A for maths and B for history. He got A A B ( with history and maths switched). He had Bath for firm (AAB) and Surrey for insurance (BBB). Got Bath. When choosing his mix he had York (ABB), Essex AAB and Royal Holloway AAB.

Agree with this. DD has told me that when she was in sixth form, it was repeatedly drummed into the students that predicted grades for UCAS purposes did not represent the school's best estimate of what students were actually going to get in practice. If you've got a parents evening coming up, ask the teachers what they would predict if they were erring on the side of caution (but assuming no disasters on the day).

Former Russell Group admissions tutor here, echoing @lanthanum and @MadridMadridMadrid . UCAS guidance suggests that teachers give PGs assuming that the wind is at the pupil’s back. The disparities between PGs and achieved grades last year suggest that this may have become exaggerated.

OTOH it is sadly well documented that some schools, particularly those that do not send many pupils to university, routinely under-predict. This is a grave disservice and should be stamped out.

You need to know what your school is doing to know how your DC should use their PGs. The ideal PG is lightly tinged with optimism, encouraging growth but recognising that there is no point encouraging offers that will not be achieved. In this case I would suggest 2 or 3 applications at PG standard, 1 or 2 a bit below it and 1 dead cert. In a highly competitive field that would be 2,2,1.

If the PGs are highly optimistic, 1,3,1 or 0,4,1 and try to get the school to see that the policy makes no sense.

If the PGs are pessimistic, 3,1,1 or 4,0,1 and launch a social campaign. This is holding your DC back and it is just wrong.

Agree with PPs about understanding how the school approaches predicted grades. My DD's school is really clear that they are a bit optimistic not what the school thinks you will definitely achieve. My DD got AAB in her end of year 12 mocks and her predicted grades are AAA. She knows if she wants to achieve the predicted it means continuing focused, hard work. Her spread of uni requirements are AAA to BBC.

They also don't routinely predict A stars so if student needs an A star or grades above their predicted to apply to particular unis then there is a clear process to request an uplift in the grades where the work/improvements required are really explicitly set out and agreed with the head of sixth form.

In relation to their insurance 'level', my DC aimed, at most, for one grade lower across each subject (eg firm AstarAA and insured AAB); so their range of offers would (and did) fall into a fairly narrow range.

They applied in December and did not select firm or insurance until May, by which time they had a better idea of whether the highest of their offers was a bit risky and whether the lowest of their offers likely to be unduly pessimistic.

They avoided unis using early accommodation selection to 'force' early firming (eg U of Notts, U of York - policies actually contrary to UCAS code) and made sure at least one of the possible insurance offers was at a uni without known accommodation pressures eg think Southampton rather than Exeter or Lancs rather than Bath).

I am not sure whether having a huge gap in range of offers is actually helpful unless DC's performance in Y12 and early Y13 has been very variable. There are so many stories of people rejecting their insurance choice on results day because they never actually really contemplated going there.

Obviously these MN threads abound with stories of DC applying to only Oxbridge, Imperial, Edin, StA, Durham and receiving no offers but that is typically for very competitive subjects and a very narrow set of unis and often very narrow, rarified band of 'typical offer' grades.

PG are tricky. My daughter was predicted A star, A , B. She didn't do UCAS last year as she decided on an Art Foundation course and is applying this cycle.
She comfortably earned all A stars (plus A star EPQ). And now she can set her sights a bit higher. But also realises the competitiveness is such that even grade in hand A stars is no guarantee at some unis due to the amount of students applying with equally great grades (Cambridge says A star A A, but most have A star A star A star - plus that extra factor no one can quantify - for her course according to Uniguide). She is also applying to Exeter that says AAB for example, but most students have attained AAA. Though requirements for a similar course also says A A B but most successful applicants have ABB.
Without a radical change in the system (sigh) we are stuck with predicted grades though. And it still irks her that if she had applied last year she wouldn't be able to apply to a couple top choices. At least now she won't have the agonising wait for results day!
For yours, have a look at Uniguide, and choose to firm/insure unis she'd be equally happy at. It is not uncommon to have a change of heart in the few months between confirming and actual results though! Then a gap year becomes tempting.

Start with where they actually want to go. It may be that the uni that they actually want to attend is well within their capabilities. Lots of places that may look great on paper they may hate when they actually visit them. There was a particular institution that I was certain I would apply to as they had a really interesting course, but after 2 minutes talking to the course leader he was extremely rude and condescending without knowing anything about me I walked out and said there is no way I am applying here, I don't want to look around the campus now, let's go and look at some other places on the way home...

It is worth visiting some unis of different ages/cultures/set ups (old, new, campus and town unis), in and out of London as well, and see what type of environment they think they would be happiest in. Even if they don't get to visit everywhere they apply to, it will allow them to get a feel for what uni life could look like in different types of places. Obviously consider hobbies etc, and also things like how easy it is for them to get home independently if not taking a car to uni.... I ruled out applying to some places because it would have been 4 changes of train, for example, which is just not practical!

I personally (albeit many years ago now) went for a spread from hitting the grades down to missing every subject by one grade. I did not bother with doubling up on places that required the full grades from me but required me to put them first for accommodation if there was no way they would be my first choice option.

Thanks everyone. Helpful stuff here. I have asked the school and the feedback is the A star and the A are well within grasp it the B is on the optimistic side. A star, A, C would be quite an odd combination. Would universities asking for ABB take A star, A, C if that’s the final result?

Some would, some wouldn't. Depends on the uni and the course and if it's oversubscribed. They'd be less likely to take it if the C was in the degree subject.

Hoping the C is not the subject of the degree programme, because that doesn’t bode well. It would help if the A star is the specialist subject.

As @Tellerium says, it depends whether the programme and School are oversubscribed. If they need bums on seats they may well be happy with this. It’s technically a wash so in a bad year I certainly would be (if the A star is in the specialist or a facilitating subject)

If oversubscribed they will need to turn people away and this provides ample reason.

Would universities asking for ABB take A star, A, C if that’s the final result?

Not necessarily. The issue here is that if a university findson results day that it has committed to take more students than it intended for a particular course, it will reject all the students that it legally can. That will include a student who got A star, A, C when the offer was ABB. If, on the other hand, there are still places available on the course once places have been allocated to those students who the university is obliged to take, I would think that a student who has got A star in the degree subject, A in a related subject, and C in a less relevant subject would almost certainly get a place.

At any open days you attend for which the standard offer requires a B in the third A level, I would try to seek out an admissions tutor and ask whether, for the most recent year, they in practice took students who got A star, A, C or AAC.

Even for "reach" universities, I would advise you to avoid any with a standard offer that requires more than a B for the third A level.

Thanks all, the A star is in the subject they want to study at uni, the A is in a related subject, the B/C is in a science and very different from the two humanities.