And so the 'A-level misery' starts…

[HappySonHappyMum]

So nice of The Mail this morning to start preparing us for the massive grade deflation our DCs can expect next week😡

The whole situation just seems to be such a mess. I’m increasingly thinking I want DC to go abroad for university. The UK sector seems to be falling apart from every angle I look at it from.

People seem to feel that allowances should be made for the disruption experienced by this year's Y13 students, but then are complaining that Wales is doing exactly that! (The number of students in Wales is very small compared to England so do not worry about this.)

I do think that going straight from the 2022 grade distribution to 2019 is a bit drastic, and England should have had one more year of splitting the difference to allow 2022 and 2023 DC to be compared more fairly.

But that is the only negative that I can see - universities know exactly what's what, and will fill their courses with people who dropped grades if necessary. Grade boundaries will reflect the performance of the cohort, as they always do, so if covid has had an effect, grade boundaries will be lower than in 2019.

Schools have known about this plan for ages, so should have been assessing / marking mocks / predicting grades etc with it in mind, and uni applications should be as realistic as they ever are.

So this won't make much difference I don't think.

Are all these angles the right leaning media, though? Because I really don't think it's the case. I think the current government is after the HE sector, for whatever ideological reasons but I don't think it's falling apart - and our universities are hugely popular with and admired by overseas students for a reason, surely?

@HappySonHappyMum I think your argument is silly. When we are not in a covid era, GCSEs are the first proper external exams the students have sat, but we dont suggest we bump up the grades

@HairyKitty I'm not suggesting we bump up grades! And this year's A level students haven't sat GCSEs - these A levels are their first proper external exams.

My ds is in this year group and I do feel like they’ve had the first bits of shit from the dfe- first new SATs, first year to have ‘proper’ Covid assessments, which varied wildly from school to school after over a year of lockdowns and remote learning (not just the TAGs based on a vague feeling in 2020 when the y11 kids just went home for the summer starting in April), now first year of back to normal expectations, into 40 year students loans at higher interest rates.

All schools I know have been working to 2019 grade boundaries since the start of year 12 - my dd has known all along that this would be the case and it was officially announced by Ofqual last October time from what I remember.

it’s hard there’s no easy solution- I have a child who did A levels 2 years ago - so at the height of grade inflation and I feel his grades are on the harsh side of fair - as were all in his year at school - the fact that some schools had a more generous approach just devalues the hard work of many sadly.

This year I can’t think about it - we’ve had a terrible year with both children having a very challenged time and other awful stuff going on - as have very many sadly - dd doesn’t think she’ll meet her offer but what will be will be and I’m sure everything will work out.

From the Gov announcement:
'...2023 cohort will be protected in grading terms if their exam performance is a little lower than before the pandemic.'
'....a typical student who would have achieved an A grade in their A level geography before the pandemic will be just as likely to get an A next summer, even if their performance in the assessments is a little weaker in 2023 than it would have been before the pandemic.'
'We expect that overall results in 2023 will be much closer to pre-pandemic years than results since 2020. This decision means that results in 2023 will be lower than in 2022.

My understanding is that it's not going back to 2019 levels, but somewhere in the middle.

Why on earth do exam boards announce now though that grades are going to be deflated when the ship has sailed!

They haven't. We've all known about this since the end of 2021 when they decided on the mitigations for the 2022 exams.

What's slightly concerning for my subject and exam board is that 2019 results are the worst . There was a year's grade protection built in post 'reform' in 2017.

I'm sure exam boards will be doing a LOT of tweaking and have had lots of meetings....

Iirc, that press release had to be clarified lots of times.

I have children expecting GCSE and A level results. The impact on covid on the eldest's year in particular has been huge. Not just the access to the teaching more the impact on MH, confidence, maturity. They didn't even get to sit proper GCSEs.

However - the emphasis on "top grades" is unhealthy and unrealistic.

No-one will miss out on university places, it affects the whole cohort and things will work themselves out. (DH programme director at a midrange Uni)

Whole system is radically overdue an overhaul, its hardly fit for purpose any more.

How would you overhaul it?

Not my problem thankfully!

Not sure why it’s radically overdue an overhaul though?

The system seems ok, not as streamlined as it could be with use of predicted grades etc

But radically overhauling stuff is not easy

The university we’re going for does seem really good so far. It’s the last few years and MAB that has been incredibly hard on the students though

I was reading in one of the papers that according to the head of education research at Uni of Buckingham’s CEER, it is unlikely in reality that grading will go exactly back to 2019 levels because it would cause too much upset, so like last year (grades weren’t exactly half way), grades will still be between 2019 and 2022.

Prof Alan Smithers, the director of the CEER, said: “My view is that the percentages of top grades will be reduced, but not to 2019 levels, because of the pain and upset it will cause to students and parents, because only England of the three administrations is seeking to do it this year, and because of the wider spread of A* across subjects, some of which used to have a lot, and others which didn’t

its well known that there is no valid criticism of the UK university sector; it’s all made up by the daily mail, which people believe uncritically.
I am actually basing much of my concern on the experiences of the young people I know who have been in the sector over the last few years. And pointing out that overseas students are coming here is hardly likely to put my mind at rest when we have senior people within the sector telling us they are more popular with universities than uk kids because they bring more income.
that’s before we get to the ways in which academics make a show of themselves on SM. Do I want my kids at a university that thinks some of this dreck is professor material, I ask myself.

Ah, OK. I have two DCs in the sector atm. No huge complaints or issues.

PS ,DM is not the only right leaning paper.

They are aiming for the Same percentage of each grade as in 2019 but expecting overall performance to be worse so the grade boundaries will be lower.

If lots of people miss their offers then the universities will be more lenient with letting people in despite this for firms and insurance. I guess the numbers of students in clearing might be higher than before but the number of courses available may also be higher as not so many courses will over full with so many meeting their offers.

Some kids might miss out on the places they really want but with clearing they are very likely to get a place somewhere...it needn't be a disaster.

I bloody hate headlines like that, it's dispiriting and mean-minded.

@DontMakeMeShushYou I was going to make the same point. My child has just done A levels and the 2019 thing has been known for ages

But yes, I completely agree with the OP's original point about why there is the endless too high / too low hand wringing in the gutter press when it comes to public exams

I agree this cohort have been affected by Covid, and the lack of GCSEs were a major issue for them.

However...

All schools know about the pegging to 2019, and have known for quite a long time. Certainly this year in all exams, including mocks, we've used 2019 grade boundaries. Beyond this, we've been marking to the mark schemes as we always do- there's no "marking to 2019 standards vs marking to 2020 starndards" in my subject anyway.

To be honest, 2019 grade boundaries are the last set of useable grade boundaries for most subjects- it's not fair to mark against 2022 grade boundaries, due to the advanced information given, and the cohorts who actually sat November exams in 2020 and 21 are too small to give useable grade boundaries.

If your school hasn't been doing this (although I doubt it) then it's fair enough to be concerned, but teachers have known about this for a long time, and have been using it to inform their assessments, yes...

In terms of predicted grades, I would argue that every school is at least slightly optimistic in their predictions- we assume every student will have a good day during their exams. We don't predict things that are completely unrealistic, and we are cautious in terms of predicting A star grades, but there's no value in giving students pessimistic predictions.

Unis know this, and they also know about covid, and lack of exams and all the rest of it- they'll have made their offers in this context.

I'm sorry if this is genuinely news to you, but it's not a decision that's just been made and it won't be news to the school. I know it's a really stressful time, but this shouldn't be a cause of worry to you.

It’s just how they report a regular bit of press. It’s not just in the DM

When you say "culled", do you mean they asked them to leave? Is this a private school or a state school?