How were your DC's year 12 mocks?

[lifeturnsonadime]

What grades did they get and what will their predicted A Levels be? Do those match their planned universities?

I do think we do the UCAS grades way too early. They're halfway through. But the system kind of forces this on us.

Absolutely and I don’t blame the teachers. If it was GCSEs I’d get it - the exam result being more important than the predicted grades. But how are you supposed to get uni offers with lower predicted grades?

DDs school is well known for being very strict with predicted grades - none of this “on a good day” business. If you’ve never had the grade in a test they won’t predict it. Even if your progress suggests you might get it in Y13.

That's not good... UCAS specifically state that predictions should be optimistic! obviously not wildly so..)

I do hate the whole mad system!

Indeed. It favours those with generous school policies. As did TAGs - but hey that’s a whole different thread!

But in DC 's year they overpredicted with only about 20% (he doesn't know about the girls) getting first choice or insurance . Obviously some did gap year, apprenticeship etc

My son’s school have been very clear that the UCAS predicted grades are now set and won’t be changed. The Y12 exams provided the floor for the predicted grade, but they also looked at prior attainment and contextual information. At least one of my son’s friends are very disappointed, but to be fair they have been predicted higher than their assessed grades and as I have said they were warned.

The school seem to be keen for all students to UCAS application sorted early, even for those that don’t need to. There was an organised mass UCAS registration session last month after school via teams and they will be spending all next week on university choices, personal statements and apprenticeship options.

Schools and colleges do it differently, but all make it extremely clear that this yr12 work determines the predicted grades.

Nowhere tends to purely set based on one set of exams, but there has to be a cut-off of further info schools and colleges can look at. Many schools and colleges want the applications in the end of Oct. There is limited time in the autumn term time doing further mocks and marking them when they have had all the opportunities of yr12 to evidence their level.

Many places have a formula. They include all the key assessed pieces through the year and the one or two sets of yr12 exams which are weighted more heavily, but because the other things are included too, a poor exam performance doesn’t ruin their chances for a better prediction….if they’ve evidenced the higher level before.

Timescales are important. Uni open days have been going at full belt for the last month and are also in September. Kids need a good sense of their predicted grades to choose meaningfully where to visit. A lot of the angst about predicted grades comes when they aren’t realistic about what their predicted grades will be, visit unis which are behind what’s they will be predicted and fall in love with them and then think the predicted grades should fit where they want to go, rather than the other way round. Lots will informally visit universities I’ve the summer holidays, so if it’s all still up in the air then, that makes it difficult to pitch visits at the right academic level.

It’s also worth knowing that most predicted grades are too generous. Students are far more likely to underperform than overperform.

It’s a tricky one as the timescales don’t quite match up. Few places want to do yr12 exams after Easter and get the results and predicted grades out before May when Ooen Days start in earnest. And many teens are only just starting to think about it all and haven’t even chosen a course.

It makes you realise again how 6th Form whizzes by and there is t a minute to waste or rest in your laurels. One minute they are getting GCSE results and being inducted into the 6th Form and within a few short months they need to know which degree they want to do, have proved themselves for predicted grades and be thinking about UCAS. Honestly they are warned of the tight timescales over and over again, but it catches people u awards every year it seems.

And that's wrong IMHO - predicted grades should be realistic.

Stating that they should be optimistic gives licence to schools to inflate predictions, especially so those schools which thrive on the marketing aspects of "x % of pupils apply to Oxbridge, Russell Group etc"

That is literally UCAS advice though!

Not wildly optimistic but 'best day, wind behind you' grades aren't mutually exclusive from realistic.

I don't work in one of these boastful schools but ime they tend to boast about the ones who actually secure places, not the applications as that might reveal a failure rate!

At the end of the day, I can be talked round to a UCAS prediction (I do always make it clear that this isn't a grade guarantee) of an A rather than a B if it helps a student get an offer but any decent teacher would pad this with plentiful warnings and advice . The student does need to actually get the grade, and that is down to them!

As I said, one of my subjects has coursework , so basing UCAS predictions solely on year 12 exams simply wouldn't work for us.

A lot of what you wrote wombat tallies with why I think September Open Days (unless Oxbridge inclined) are far more useful and focused.

I have no doubt my DDs school have made it abundantly clear since the start of Y12. It doesn’t favour the ones who take a while to adjust to A level learning. My DD struggled the first term in all subjects to adapt and is only now starting to do well, so you start to wonder if it’s all too late? By taking time to adjust for one term. All wrong.

Some open days are over the summer - many clash and many aren’t Sept but Oct which is after school cutoff.

Wish you were my DDs teacher! They’ve been told explicitly they won’t be predicted an A if they haven’t achieved one in a major test - even if they were one point off.

This is where the system stinks IMO, now that even offers are so highly competitive.

DS got CCC he has done virtually no homework and is struggling with SEN related organisation. That said he is happy, has friends, isn't stressed and doing lots of sport. I'm focusing on the last bits. He could get AAAs according to the teachers but needs to focus. I can't work out how much to push him. I think he will be a late bloomer in life in general so not overly concerned at the mo. He can always resit as well.

Oh, that sucks. Meanies .

Although not sure on course and predictions DC has been visiting various unis and towns outside of open uni days just to see what it's like. Was able to shortlist on this. Will attend offer days, presuming she gets a choice😁

DD’s history teacher said they typically see a 10% improvement in marks between the end of Y12 and the A-level, which I thought was quite a lot. But it does seem to be the case that very few kids in her cohort got an A* this term, whereas the school has quite a good track record with them in the actual thing.

So schools like Sycamore’s are really being quite harsh if they don’t anticipate any improvement in grade. Plus it makes it that much harder for their students to get offers for popular courses, where you often need the high predicted grade to compete with the other candidates rather than the demands of the course itself!

DS got A Astar Astar+ for his Yr 12's, and got A Astar Astar- for his predicted grades (don't ask me what the plus and minus mean) it definitely doesn't appear that his school anticipate improvement in grades though! His previous report however had him at ABB and I think he was definitely one that needed a bit of time to adjust to A-levels (he got 17 out of 45 in one of his first tests).

Wonder what on earth the + and - for A star means?

My DS sounds similar he started off at D's in psychology at the start of year 12 and was considering asking to change course at October half term but was told it was too late, ended up with an A in the year 12 mock so will be predicted A , we don't actually ever get the actual UCAS predicted grades set out but are told they will be in line with working at or year 12 mock result which ever the higher and they go up a grade if the DC is working 'above expectation' in terms of attitude. So someone who gets 3 As in A levels will be predicted 3 A *s generally.

I think my reason for posting is that one of DS's teachers says that an A prediction is relatively rare. I know Mumsnet isn't truly reflective of society at whole but I just wanted to gauge whether that is right as DS will be predicted 3 A but has below par GCSE results for a variety of reasons and I wonder how much of an issue that will be.

Oh the formatting was screwed again that should have 3 A stars will be my DSs predictions based on his yr 12 mocks but anyone with 3 As in their mocks will also be predicted 3A* at my Ds's school because they go up a grade.

It’s also worth knowing that most predicted grades are too generous. Students are far more likely to underperform than overperform

Not sure if it's the case but something to bear in mind. I bumped into a mum of a boy who had completely over estimated his grades so A level results day was dreadful..she was really shocked by the stress of clearing & accommodation finding, so was making other parents aware to be realistic.

As the cost of Uni has increased parents are keen for offers at prestigious universities to ensure it's worthwhile but realism tends to go out the window.

My dc hasn't had formal feedback yet, due next week but looks fine from unofficial feedback. They were given guidance on likely grades before exams and if aspirational they were told what they would need in the exam to secure the predictions. I think that was sensible as it highlighted if the grade was marginal so they needed to work harder on revision.

Lots of places will use a rigid formula. It usually includes the end of yr12 exam marks and other assessed pieces too - so not just determined by one exam. The reason they use the rigid formula is that otherwise vast amounts of time are used up with students and especially parents haggling for higher predictions, and it’s not fair because some students and their parents won’t haggle and why should they end up with lower predictions because they aren’t so sharp-elbowed. Colleges with thousands of yr12 students might especially need to be fairly rigid…and their system will have been honed over many many years.

Some places will be prepared to be a bit more flexible on one grade. However, really there needs to be evidence to support an increased grade. And an increased prediction might be caveated with a letter to advise that they must include at least one or two applications which rely on the previous predicted grade, and are well advised to use one of those as insurance if they get offers.

Timing is difficult. Many schools and colleges want UCAS done by Oct half term. Oct open days are useful as uni terms are underway, but it’s late in the day for decision making. Internal school deadlines cannot be totally enforced…UCAS deadline is in January and any applicant wanting to delay u til then can do so. Someone delaying until then might be able to make a good case for an uograde in predictions based on another term of work…but schools and colleges must be fair and it doesn’t seem fair if some students get more opportunities than others to provide evidence for predicted grades. Sitting exams, especially in 6th Form colleges is a mammoth task in terms of organisation and marking. People who suggest that they should be given another chance to do another exam and prove themselves don’t always understand the practicalities or think about the fairness or timings. I understand that all parents want their child to be able to aim for whatever they want to, but the reality is that not all doors to all courses in all locations can be open to everyone. Predictions have to be based on a realistic possibility - those who say the actual grades themselves should determine the outcome and not predictions, forget that universities have to manage the number if offers and to be able to differentiate between candidates. It can’t all happen between A Level results and term starting, with our current system.

As always, some kind of post-results application system would be better, but there are many many reasons why the change doesn’t happen and why it would be extremely complex, so we are stuck with the system we have.

The last thing I’d say is that schools and colleges absolutely do t want to withhold predictions and limit options for students…it’s quite the reverse in fact. They really want to be able to send the students out to the next stage that they’d like to go to and they push themselves to be generous.

As always, some kind of post-results application system would be better

Yes please! I know there must be reasons why it doesn't happen BUT it would seem much more efficient.

@lifeturnsonadime I think some predictions could have differences due to the subjects. Am example previously cited is History, there is a maturity of writing that develops as students get older and also if they read around the subject more.

Regarding University, if you had 2 students with similar A level predictions and one offer (assuming no mitigation or contextual info) but one demonstrated GCSEs all 9s and the other was patchy GCSEs who is more likely to get the offer?

Wasn't there a consultation a year or so back looking at the idea of changing the university entry system so that students apply once grades have known (so removes the entire need for predicted grades and offers)? Sadly I can't remember any more than that and I'm now wondering if I've made it up. Ring any bells for anyone else?

Regarding University, if you had 2 students with similar A level predictions and one offer (assuming no mitigation or contextual info) but one demonstrated GCSEs all 9s and the other was patchy GCSEs who is more likely to get the offer

Well the person with the better GCSEs, but this might be where a good tutors reference comes in handy where there are significant mitigating circumstances.

As one of DCs teachers said a discrepancy can be powerful evidence of potential where it can be explained.

Time will tell.