How to choose which universities are realistic

[Failingteenparenting]

If you have experience of uni admissions I would appreciate your advice.

When a university says the normal entry requirement for a course is, for example, AAB, then can you answer the following:

• is it ever worth applying if your predicted grades are, say ABB, so slightly lower and you are NOT a contextual admissions candidate
• if you are predicted AAB and apply are you quite likely to be accepted? Is that like 90% or 30%?
• how much do GCSEs matter. If yours are lower than others at your school does that impact?

I help with UCAS at my school. Unfortunately it's hard to generalise.

It is incredibly rare to get offers if the predictions are lower.
The percentage chance is a "how long is a piece of string?" question depending on the ratio of applicants to places (varies by uni and course).
Some unis look at GCSEs, but most don't. If they do, it's likely to be "we will give a contextual offer if you've out-performed your school average" rather than penalising lower grades.

• is it ever worth applying if your predicted grades are, say ABB, so slightly lower and you are NOT a contextual admissions candidate

yeah of course, your kid might over achieve. Mine did, predicted ABB & got lot higher.

• if you are predicted AAB and apply are you quite likely to be accepted? Is that like 90% or 30%?

That I can't say, but imagine it depends how in demand the course is at that specific location.

• how much do GCSEs matter. If yours are lower than others at your school does that impact?

Beyond a basic threshold, like 5 x 4+ and passes in both English & math, GCSEs tend to only matter for Oxbridge, Vet & medicine courses

I don't know about the chances but my DS who is doing A levels now was predicted ABB and applied to 1 X AAB RG, 1 X AAB non RG, not contextual, and got offers from both, at the advertised AAB (one offered to drop to ABB if firmed). He also applied to 2 at predicted ABB and got ABB offers from them (plus one safe with much lower)

I'd say (from one go and not seen results yet so no expert) one above predicted seems to be perfectly fine. But make sure some at predicted and a safe below I guess? {Two above? I don't know, DS didn't want to push it that far)

My observation form this year is if you are non contextual, they pretty much seem to get offered at advertised requirements, if they get an offer (with a bit of 'drop by one of you firm us here and there).

You should also realise that often the published entry requirement is a minimum, and I know of several candidates who were predicted over this by at least two grades and did not get offers. If the course is popular, the university can skim the top.

It's also depends on the course, if it's over subscribed it's less likely than an under subscribed course

If UCAS predictions are ABB, he may get an offer for an AAB course at AAB so long as it’s not too competitive/popular a course. UCAS predicted grades are normally slightly aspirational at most schools. Do you think your DC could exceed ABB? My DS’s school said to put one or two aspirational, two or three at expected grades and one or two bankers where they’d be happy to go if things got trickier in Y13. If the UCAS predictions are already aspirational maybe don’t go much above that. Perhaps one at AAB. If your DC feels the UCAS predictions are pessimistic then maybe one at AAA, one at AAB, two at ABB and one at BBB? It seems that DC In disadvantaged schools are more likely to be under-predicted.

Thanks all. How can you find out whether a course is over subscribed?

Might be better to say what subject he's applying for OP. And what sort of unis? It really depends.

The higher the grades required, the more over-subscribed it’s likely to be.

So, Economics at Durham has a standard offer of A star, AA. This year, lots with 2x A star and even 3x A star didn’t get an offer. There are just too many applicants. So for these places, with lower, you really are unlikely to get offers.

They will be allocating some places to international students (for the higher fees) and some will get lower contextual offers, and then there are the others and possibly they are targeting g certain numbers to state schools etc. It’s difficult to know as some with lower predictions will get offers.

At Exeter Open Day they talked about basically ranking all the candidates by their predicted grades and then working down the list until they had made all the offers they could, nearing in mind they significantly over-offer as it won’t be everyone’s top choice and not all who accept will make it. They said each year it differs a bit, but basically it depends on the competition and strength if applicants that year.

Many Unis who want A/B type grades will make offers to pretty much everyone who has the right predictions. Lots applying will actually be hoping for ‘better’ places and again, tigers will prefer similar standard places and others not make their offer. Most universities and most courses aren’t actually over-subscribed in the end, so actually if you have the right predictions you usually get the offers.

Thigs like Maths and Econ for the very top places…people with 2 Astar predictions and fantastic personal statements say that if you apply to 5 of the most competitive places, you’ll be lucky to get 2 of them…..but this is a tiny fraction of courses that are like this.

With A/B courses and predictions, i’d say it doesn’t hurt to have 1 or even 2 that are 1 grade above what you’re predicted, as long as your others are at the grades/below what you’re predicted and you’re actually prepared to go to them. As long as you aren’t going for the most most competitive places and courses and some of your choices require the grades you’re predicted,you really should get some offers. If the aspirational one comes off that’s great, and if it doesn’t, we’ll hey ho!

There is an online thing called Unifrog which schools often log them onto (they need a password). They can put in their predicted grades and subject/s and it will give them lists of safe, realistic and optimistic options for their course.

When do they get predicted grades? Ds1 hasn't had his yet, just grades from exams and targets based on GCSEs and another from class but none are apparently their official predicted grades. They're expected to do open days from now and apply in November... No idea what grades to look for and so which unis are realistic.
Luckily DS wants a gap year (to train as a bus driver, his back up career!) so will have actual grades and can apply again next year if needed.

It's hard to figure out, we don't have unifrog and the predictions aren't done yet but open days are now. Wish it was a bit more uniform!

It varies by sixth form. My school give them out before the end of year in Y12 after EoY exams have been marked. My DS’s school issued them in September. Early entry for Oxbridge and medics is mid October so they normally come out before then.

We got predicted grades today. Actually he got A*AB predicted. He wants to do Politics and a International Relations at Leeds but that’s AAA. Not sure it’s worth trying. He’s also interested in the same course at Bristol AAB, Bath AAB and York ABB.

He goes to a private school so I wonder whether that will make it harder.

If you are predicted AAB and apply are you quite likely to be accepted? Is that like 90% or 30%?

Well worth checking the courses and universities you're interested in on uniguide.co.uk

It tells you the typical grades and subjects admitted onto the course.

Also tells you breakdown of international vs UK entrants so you can judge if course is popular with international entrants or not.

Uni admissions metrics are usually available too which will provide more details on this, in terms of number of applications, number of offers made etc

They’re great grades. Definitely worth applying to the ones he’s chosen. Keeping one spare isn’t a bad idea either (DD only applied to 4). Bath read the personal statement twice - two academics and take a little while to offer but communicate along the way. Given York offer within 24/48 hours I doubt they read them very thoroughly if at all. I’ve no idea about Keeds or Bristol but Either way he should write a stellar statement. Or is it changing this year?

Is he doing an EPQ or Core Maths? Bath will and York may drop a grade for either (they both did for my DD) - I don’t know about the other two universities.

Some schools do more testing after summer hols and base predicted grades on these if better than end of year.

If he really wants Leeds then I would get him to ring Leeds admissions and see if his predicted grades would be acceptable.

It’s worth asking Leeds admissions if A*AB is deemed same as AAA as at some universities it is, but certainly not everywhere.

He’s also got until January to apply so could that B be worked on whilst maintaining others?

As a former admissions tutor, I definitely think it worth DS emailing Leeds. People appreciate the chance to reply according to their own timetables. We have a soft spot for applicants with A star predictions.

Could he develop a realistic plan for improving the B? If so he should briefly xain it in the email.

As long as DS doesn’t actively mess up his application I would expect him to get offers from the other choices you have listed

This is exactly what our DS did and got an A in that subject.

@Failingteenparenting Do check the entry criteria at Bristol. Many of their courses DO weight GCSEs. Can be 20% weighting or more. So it’s not a case of GCSEs do not matter everywhere. At Bristol the PS is a tie breaker. So on a popular course, that can matter too! Never assume it’s not read.

Saying that, I would apply but you don’t really have a fall back university in the list. I’m surprised York is ABB though. He might also need to think about what his career might be and look at a year abroad. Always worth it.