Scrapping into Oxford?

[fakenamefornow]

I think my y12 teen should try for Oxford, she thinks she shouldn't because she won't get in and it'll use up one of her Ucas options. I think she has a chance. Honest opinions please.
Context -
From excellent state school, never been on free school meals or other disadvantage indicators. Not tutored.
11 GCSEs - 6 grade 9, 5 grade 8
Doing chemistry, biology and history, A levels plus history related EPC
Want to study History

1 of my dc went to Oxford and another to cambridge but for STEM subjects.In those subjects there were some people who were very bright, but the majority were gifted in the real sense of the word ( not the school nonsense definition.)
The one who dud chem at Oxford found it quite a toxic environment to be honest.My subsequent DC didn't apply ( well one did but withdrew nearly straightaway)

You need to be really driven to study at Oxbridge. DN doesn't seem to get much respite from his studies at all, even during the breaks. Spends a lot of time in his local library (when at home) studying.

If she wants it I would encourage her to apply. I would want her to have the courage and not just refuse to apply in case she didn't get in. I think her GCSE grades are great and fine to get a offer when in conjunction with all tests/interviews required. I know a number of people without very top grades that got offers/are at Oxbridge. You do not need straight 9s or straight A* s or straight As (depending on when these were the top GCSE grades) to get in. Lots of people have biases towards one group of subjects compared to another. An amazing mathematician or scientist may not do great at Art or a foreign language or English etc. Should they discount them on that .

I think she should go to an open day or visit the city and then decide. Has she looked at course content and if it appeals? As long as she would not be devastated if she does not get in then if she likes the city/course she should give it a go - the experience of applying in itself may help boost her confidence that she is 'good enough'. I don't think anyone 'scrapes' in to Oxford either, the admissions process is robust and selects people the tutors think will do well.
There are plenty of normal people at Oxford and plenty of 'normally bright' people there too. DS is a 3rd year STEM student and out of his year of around 190 students there are 3 'geniuses' he informs me who are head and shoulders above everyone else. And lots of student have time for societies/clubs/sports and hobbies.

In history (unless they have changed their methods again) it really quite matters what her GCSEs are like compared to the average at her school. They apply a contextualisation factor to both the gcse score and, crucially, the result of the HAT test, based on that comparison. Eg multiply both results by 1.05 if the candidate outperformed their school or by 0.95 if they did less well. So someone with fewer high grades could get a 1.04 multiplier, while someone with more is cut down by 0.92, dependent on school performance. I think they treat 8s and 9s the same for this calculation, but can't swear to it. You can see this on the subject reports I think.

So if she did better than her school average, that can help

And re the poster above about history being less competitive, the days of good candidates being able to apply to, say, Oxbridge, Durham, UCL, E'b and St A and be confident of getting 4 offers are rather gone, so it depends on where one is applying.

No - not changed - this is what my daughter was told this year. She had already decided not to go to the super selective for sixth form but if she had been thinking about it still it would have swung it back to her existing school.

But note, the contextualisation is done off the school at which the candidate sat their gcses, I believe, not the one from which they are applying. However, I think the categorisation of the candidate by independent/state selective/state unselective etc is done by the school from which one applies. Same, I think for contextual offers at other universities

Do they apply the same contextualisation for international students?

There is a lot of nonsense on this thread! My DC is at Oxford reading History, having got in with 6 grade 9s, 4 8s and a 7 at GCSE. Also studied two straight science A levels alongside History. I suspect they did very well on the HAT though and would have come across as very passionate and well-read in their interview.

DD should go and have a look, OP, and absolutely apply if she wants to - nothing wrong with her GCSE grades at all and tbh they always say they’re more interested in potential than someone who might have got all 9s but peaked at GCSE level. DC is finding it lots of work but very interesting and isn’t in any way struggling to keep up (all marks so far have been borderline first/2.1). Good luck!

Using the top 8 grades and 8 and 9s counting the same her grades are fine.

LMAO at the implication that 6x 9's and 5x 8's is not academic enough for Oxford. There are lots of great universities that which are not Oxbridge.

Dd1 studied Ppe at Balliol .
She had similar results to your daughter at GCSE.
She is the most driven and self aware of our dd's and she adored her time there and has a great network of friends.
Oxford definitely opens doors for students but is a very intense and difficult environment however she has a fantastic career off the back of it.
It absolutely would not have suited our other two who are in some ways more academic but they would hate the environment.

I forgot to say it is definitely about selling yourself at interview for the college you want and the entrance exam.
DD's offer was AAA after that.

There are onsite interviews to get into Oxford. It's not about just getting these results. If your kids are effortlessly getting top grades in GCSE and maybe fully applying themselves at A level maybe she stand a chance. But I have to say if you are already trying very hard and not getting these top 9s it's an uphill struggle from there

Just one experience @fakenamefornow

It sounds like your daughter has plenty of decent grades to apply to Oxford. The HAT will be important but you can download from the website to practice those. Also during interviews in DS's experience they are looking for more than you have done at School . So Does she have a genuine interest , does she voluntarily read books about history purely from interest not because it was revision for an exam.

What I cannot stress enough is that the social mix at Oxford is pretty good in that there are enough people from different backgrounds to find your own likeminded people & you don't need to be friends with everyone - just enough friends. To my certain knowledge , DS never went around in an open top Morgan clutching a teddy bear ( and nor did his friends )

Yes terms are short and so work during holidays and fairly intense during the term time but DS seemed to be able to get a very reasonable balance between socialising and working.

I would also support going there on an open day or even just a look round & with five choices why not give it a go ( if she wants to )

Best of luck whatever she decides

Thanks so much for all the info. I'll go through it all properly when I have a bit more time.
A bit more about my daughter. Yes she does love reading, all sorts of stuff, not just history. She's also very sensible and capable. I have no worries about her not feeding herself properly or anything like that while at uni. I doubt she'll be out partying much either. She's shy and lacks confidence though so I'm not sure she'll interview well. Despite the shyness, she's quite independent, I'm sure she could leave home now and manage fine to set up home for herself.

Most colleges have meals provided I think. It’s more about the complexity of the application and whether it’s worth it. As you have a 1:4 chance of getting a place, 75% of applicants go to other universities. Therefore strong candidates will meet similar students at other universities anyway. They absolutely are not all at Oxford.

I think her issue might be confidence. So if she’s not sure, does it really matter?

Have a look at these demonstration interviews on the History Faculty website which I linked to earlier

Interviews | Faculty of History (ox.ac.uk)

@fakenamefornow in case you haven't seen it here is a link to an informative document - Admissions Feedback for History at Oxford for 2022-23 cycle. Key points

1. The HAT is critical as an assessment tool
2. For applicants in autumn 2022 GCSE grades were not used in the decision making at they were considered too unreliable due to being Teacher Assessed (TAG). This may change for 2023/24 admissions cycle as I imagine your DD took actual GCSE exams in 2022.
3. That said they do state the average no of Grade 8/9 GCSEs is 8.78 for successful 'placed' candidates so your DD is perfectly within the average, probably above average given GCSE grades were nudged back last year.

As others have pointed out GCSE contextualisation is based on the school you took the GCSEs at - you do not get penalised by switching to a better performing school for 6th form.

I was a very much borderline candidate when I applied and got an offer and flourished at Oxford. Please don't let her be put off by stories of Geniuses. As others have said it is the style of teaching and learning that is so specific at Oxford and Cambridge - suits some and not others. Open days are key is assessing if it will suit her. My DC1 (now 2nd year O) took a little time to settle but now much enjoying the academics and has realised that vacations are for academic study as well as travel & paid work. DC2 starts at O in October.

Good luck to your DD is deciding where to apply.

While her GCSE grades are "decent" from an Oxford perspective (although the number of 9s has increased significantly in recent years), I feel the big stumbling block might be the interview, considering she's "shy and lacks confidence" (and didn't pass the McDonald's interview...although who knows what that's based on!).
While perfectly valid, she may be asked to justify her unusual choice of A-levels (could appear to be hedging bets/indecisive).
And as others have mentioned, her off-syllabus knowledge of history & writers could well be a key factor.

I think the thing that is relevant, is whether there is a genuine passion and enthusiasm for the subject beyond exam specifications. Does she CHOOSE to read History in her free time? Is she a flexible and analytical thinker about a variety of issues and able to engage in thinking and discussion about topics she knows about and doesn’t know much about? When faced with a topic or question she doesn’t know, is she thrown by that or enthused by it?

LOADS of UCAS applicants have stellar GCSEs and A Level predictions. There are far more of them than Oxbridge places. LOADS will study hard, jump through the exam hoops and get good grades at GCSE, A Level and good degrees from good universities. But far fewer are genuinely interested and passionate about their subject and intellectually curious.

I’d consider if your DD is intellectually curious or just doing well at school and fancies a prestigious uni. What is is about the Oxford course that appeals?

@Mikimoto I want to echo what @WombatChocolate wrote. My DS is also almost painfully shy and I was so worried about the interview process (3 rounds of interviews for his subject / college) and I think a more traditional interview such as McDonalds would be a little torturous for him.
But these interviews were entirely subject based and he really comes alive and has such enthusiasm for his subject that he throughly enjoyed these interviews.
It's passion for the subject that they're looking for and it sounds as if your DD has that in spades,

But these interviews were entirely subject based and he really comes alive and has such enthusiasm for his subject that he throughly enjoyed these interviews.

Same for my DD - shy, but comes alive when talking about the subject she loves. She got in.

The way to look at the interviews is that most tutors are not looking for the smartest, they are looking for the people who love the subject and that they want to work with for 3 or 4 years.

That's the thing, I agree with your perspectives and I think sometimes it's Oxford wanting those who can be truly the best of the best and not just the best of the average so to speak.

@WombatChocolate