Predicted grades - one subject one grade below typical offer

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Hi
We've had a fraught time with DS"s predicted grades. He has been predicted AAC. The school won't budge and increase the C to a B, which seems unfair to me as his end of year 12 exam was a C. My thoughts are that with hard work DS could improve by next summer but apparently the school doesn't agree. DS is applying for Geography (predicted an A in this subject).

All his choices are in the range of AAB-BBB. School are saying he shouldn't apply to any of these due to the C prediction. He has a good set of GCSE grades (all 7 and above) and an A in the EPQ. Am I being unduly optimistic in thinking that at least one of the Universities will give DS an offer? None of them are in the super competitive bracket of Durham/LSE/UCL etc. He doesn't want to look at any other options and says that he will take a gap year and apply with grades in hand if necessary. My view is there's nothing wasted in trying for his 5 preferred options for 2023 entry but am I just setting him up for disappointment in supporting his approach and ignoring school's advice?

Just apply to where he wants to go. I bet he'll get at least one offer

My DD applied for two aspirational (both one subject just one grade above her predicated) and three she was confident she would get the grades for. She got offers for all. One of the aspirational universities dropped their offer by one grade as she made it her first choice - she’s there now.

He’s nothing to lose by applying to where he wants and putting in the effort, if he still misses the grades he applies next year with grades in hand, like he suggests. Has he asked the subject teacher where he’s going wrong and for some help?

Thanks for your messages, it’s good to hear others would take a similar approach.
DS regrets choosing the third subject. He’s quite honest and says he has tried less hard than in the other subjects which he enjoys. DS recognises that has to change. I think he has the ability to push the grade up though as there’s still time to improve.

Two of mine applied with one grade lower than typical offer, both got offers and both got in even though neither met the offer. Russell Group.

At the end of the day the school can’t dictate (and shouldn’t) where he should apply. They should be advising only. And as a sixth form teacher I don’t feel like I’m particularly up to date with university offers/requirements - there’s so many out there and it changes so much even year to year I would only ever offer my own personal viewpoint and never go to tell students what they should do. Having said that I’d also be happy to stick a B in as a predicted grade of a student really needed it - they should always put some universities with lower requirements on their UCAS form anyway.

DD also regretted her third choice. She was predicted a C but for a long time was happy if she scraped a D in class. When she got her results she was quite amazed to see she had got C, it was her lowest grade but the one she was most proud of as that course was hard for her.

Just make sure he’s got a back up choice as if he doesn’t achieve there is a high chance he would have nothing,

That tends to be the general rule autumn doesn’t it? But in actuality there is no point him having a back up choice that he doesn’t really fancy. It still has to be a course he’d love to do at a university that’s ok with him. If he can’t find a 5th choice that fits the bill then a year out and a re-think or applying with grades in hand is a good option. When the grades come in many teens really don’t want the insurance option after all.

I would definitely tell him to apply for ABB/BBB courses, but be sure to have a lower grade requirement uni in there as well which he is happy with.

Geography, if not at Russell Group universities is generally not oversubscribed, so there is some flexibility in grades. If there are particular unis he is interested in, it would be worth emailing or calling and asking the question as to if he is likely to be given an offer with his predicted grades.

FWIW for the new September 2022 starters I know at Uni doing Geography with AAB/ABB/BBB courses, on results day with their actual results, they were accepted onto the degree with at least 1 C grade, at Nottingham Uni, Sussex and Leicester (that’s just the ones I know). Just be sure to have a low offer insurance and I think he’ll be fine, especially if his Geography A level is an A.

Where does he want to apply to and perhaps we can suggest one insurance choice which is similar but lower requirement

He still needs one that fits his predictions in case he does in fact get a C. And if he really doesn’t like it he will then have to decide if retaking would improve things.

But otherwise, I agree, put down places he actually wants to go, provided they are in the bit of the uni ecosystem which is willing to give above prediction offers.

i would still encourage applying for a back up option that meet the predicted grades, just in case, and then get your son to work his ass off for the next few month to prove that subject teacher wrong.

my dd wasn’t happy with one of her predicted grades and put the work in and studied and got the higher grade she wanted.

His AAC will get him into a BBB course, suprised the school aren't being more helpful on that. But he needs an insurance unless he'd rather take a gap year and reapply?

Has he checked to see if the EPQ A confers a grade reduction for his A level results. For example, D's was looking at a course that says. AAA. A in the subject he'd be doing at uni and AA in the other subjects but if he gets an A in EPQ, they'd accept AB for the other A levels.

Also, has he checked if he's eligible for a contextual offer?

I'd put 1 aspirational, AAA, 2 X AAB choices, one insurance that he's definitely likely to be offered of he does end up with AAC and fill the other slot as he wants.

Also, ring the admissions tutors (or email them) for some insight. It's what they're there for!

Thanks for all your messages. It’s been very helpful.
The range of typical offers of AAB-BBB already include reductions for EPQ and in one case also the subject combination taken.
I’ll encourage DS to rethink and look for one University which may accept him with a C grade as an insurance choice.
Thanks again to everyone for replying.

Some unis go much lower in clearing, so ABB/BBB courses aren’t that in reality. Hence they will offer with a C but at the higher grades, but accept you with much lower on results day.

discoveruni.gov.uk/course-finder/results/

The above link shows the grade profile of students accepted on to courses. It will give you a really good idea of what they are likely to accept on results day.

Just a quick update from me in case it helps anyone who stumbles upon this thread with DC in a similar position.
DS went ahead (against his school’s advice) and applied for 5 universities all with typical offers exceeding his predicted grades of AAC.
He now has four offers ranging from AAB-BBB including two from his top choices. Waiting to hear from the last Uni but am delighted he ignored the school’s advice to play it safe. His confidence has really been boosted and he is working hard to push the C prediction up to a B 😊

Well done him (and you OP)!

Yes - well done to him for having the nerve to take a risk. Much better to have a year out and apply with actual grades (so long as that is feasible given home circumstances) than to start in a half hearted manner.

Thanks this is so helpful! Just submitted ds ucas for two aspirational AAB-ABB and ABB course, then three back up ones between BBB-BBC . He’s predicted ABC (v able but lazy !)

Let us know how he gets on, fingers crossed for those aspirationals coming good!

@Ronnie2022 I’m so pleased my thread was helpful! I’m chuffed to say that the C grade has improved to a B grade in the recent mocks so it really feels aspirational choices were the way to go. Best of luck to your DS!

Thanks so much ! Xx

That’s great news yaaay your ds!