Predicted grades and university applications

[Sarahcoggles]

Is there ever any point in applying for universities if your predicted grades are lower than the published entry requirements?

DS is getting predicted grades that are one grade down from what he was expecting in 2 of his subjects.

He is doing an EPQ but won't get predicted a high grade in that (he's considering giving it up anyway to focus on the A levels).

He doesn't have any extenuating circumstances or anything that will make him particularly stand out.

He had more or less decided on his 5 university choices (school UCAS deadline in 2 weeks), but is now facing going back to square 1 to look at places with lower requirements.

I'm confident that if he knuckled down he could get good enough grades for the places he likes best, but is it worth even applying if his predictions are too low? He doesn't want to waste an application, and is keen to avoid going through clearing because of the stress and accommodation hassles.

I've said we could speak to the teachers but he's adamant the predictions are set in stone.

Anyone know?
Thanks

Very little point unless there's something else you're not telling us. Most unis have to reduce the number offers this year to compensate for over recruiting the last few, and because of growing numbers of 18 year olds, and an easy way to do that is to make minimum requirements a hard cut off. If he's applying to a course with an added extra like a portfolio, there's more flexibility there, or if he's only applying to less well ranked unis then there's a chance. If not, and he wants options, then having more than one above his predicteds is a waste of a spot.

Sorry!

Some advice on rethinking choices:
If he's set on a uni: look and see what related courses there are and if they have lower reqs. Lots of things when paired with a language have lower requirements, for example.
If he's set on a city: look for other unis there. Nottingham is a great option in Nottingham for many courses for example, iirc their psychology course is really well ranked.
If he's set on his courses already chosen: have a gap year and apply with grades in hand.

What's the course amd where dies he want to apply? If you're talking Russell group unis he may miss out on some, but I wouldn't think all. Were his gcses decent?

Depends on lots of factors

What's the course and how popular is it?
What universities is he applying to? (Russell group / high end or lower down )
Sometimes Relevant work experience can offer you a grade lower in 1 subject
Strength of personal statement can sometime sway

It's usually worth applying to 1 ambitious universities with higher grades then predicted but only by 1-2 grades , 3 on par with predicted grades and 1 lower for insurance.

Could he maybe take a gap year and apply next year once he has his grades if you think he will achieve higher than predicted ?

As others have said it's entirely dependent on course, uni and current predictions! Of the five he has selected, it's probably worth seeing if any of those also offer a foundation year - he'd likely get an offer for that if he didn't meet their standard offer so keep those. Swapping two for places with lower published offers would probably be a sensible course of action though.

Don't forget even in these competitive times, unis are still advertising standard offers with half an eye to appearing to be competitive and high quality - in reality many will still offer to most applicants and accept a dropped grade. Not as many as previous years true, but still a good amount.

It really depends where he is applying to and for what courses - creative courses that ask for portfolios can be much more flexible than something like Medicine for example.
The university I work at makes offers at our published entry requirements, irrespective of predicted grades - because these can be so wildly off what is actually achieved.

Both my dc have friends who have been offered places at grades above their predicted grades.

But

Schools predict what they think a student will achieve in their best day with a following wind so if your dc has been predicted lower then they had hoped for you should be realistic about their chance of achieving higher grades. You say you are confident they would achieve higher grades you f they knuckled down to it but a) what do they think? B) would they be genuinely up for doing the requisite amount of knuckling down?

Out of my eldest child (now at Uni) friends who were given offers above their predicted grades I don’t think any of them met those offers. I know last years grades at my dc school were pretty much what had been predicted. Obviously this may vary from school to school.

Our school says pick one stretch ie a grade above predictions 3 at or about predicted level and one insurance which should be below your predicted grades (ideally two grades below)

so if predicted AAA you’d choose one at A star AA, say two at AAA and one at AAB (for your three at or about your prediction) and finally one insurance at ABB

it seems to be paying off for those who have submitted so far and are getting offers in.

I’ve always somewhat disagreed with the pick one low grade course on your UCAS form (and neither of my children have picked courses above their predicted grades.

as you can only firm one and insure one these should both be courses you actively want to do - so many times you see posts / hear in real life “oh they got their insurance but it’s not somewhere they want”.

So if a student is predicted AAA and got offers of AAA, AAA, AAB, ABB and BBB assuming the AAA was a real genuine prediction which they should expect to achieve they should surely insure whichever they prefer out of the AAB or ABB? Tbh the low tariff courses will probably be in clearing.

I’ve explained that really really badly but maybe someone will get my drift!

Yes that’s why at DSs school they say one or two grades below. So if predicted AAA you would pick an insurance at AAB or ABB

Take a gap year, earn some money, gain some life experience, apply with grades, much less stressful.