Bulge year? Sensible uni choices

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Hi, I posted in chat and was recommended to come here.

I can't figure this out by googling... trying to work out if my current Y13 (upper 6th) child would face more competition for uni place by applying now, or by doing a gap year?

I seem to remember they were in a bumper birth year. Or was that the year below?!

They are not likely to achieve super high grades so I want to support them and maximise their chances of getting on a reasonable (not overly ambitious) course.

We are in England, they are considering England or Scotland for uni.

They want to go to uni so they can experience leaving home, getting more education, and keeping career options open rather than narrowing down with an apprenticeship.

The pandemic (and ever since) has been pretty tough for my family, life is swamping me at the moment, and so any info appreciated. Tia.

I'd suggest applying next year with grades in hand. Its easier to understand the best options available.

Bulge years are just one factor. It also doesn't necessarily follow that more 18 year olds means more university applications, and the course your child is applying to may always be more or less popular so the difference would be insignificant.
Could they not apply this year and if not successful apply again next year with grades in hand?
How do they feel about taking a gap year? If done right it can be a great opportunity to learn more about the world and themselves.
Do they have a definite career goal? A gap year may help - a bit of growing up.

They may as well apply now. Can always ask to defer or withdraw if they feel their choice has been limited for next year or they perform better than expected.

Apply now. I posted on your other thread. The number of 18 year olds is growing year on year for the next 10 years. Demand from that cohort has also been rising year on year for the last 20 odd years, and shows no sign of reducing. As each year goes on it will get harder and harder to get offers unless the Gov does something pretty radical like raise tuition fees (hint - it won't), supply is becoming a problem. This years UCAS cycle was the start - with fewer applicants placed than ever before. The problem will get worse.

Thank you. Wow that graph @titchy ! Bloody hell these poor teenagers, I really feel sorry for them.

I would apply this year as the first year of the Covid boom intakes will be leaving so there may be a few more spaces around.

If grades are not going to be stellar then I would suggest you give Scotland a miss. They are competitive universities generally and will take Scottish and overseas students first.

After steady increases in the birth rate, we have had a dip in births in the last few years. Essentially since a lot of young Europeans could no longer easily enter the UK because of Brexit and then Covid. Still around half the births now in some parts of the country are to foreign born mothers (doesn’t say anything about the fathers!). Births will go up again as we start to see more immigration back into the country if restrictions are eased.

So you would have a long wait to see a fall in university applications. It is easier for universities to give students an offer if they already have their grades but waiting has an element of risk. Some courses that two years ago were asking ABB, are this year asking for AAA because there are more applicants for their places.