Do you have to have a reserve and clearing tips?

[Stanleystuck]

At the start of the process my son was predicted AAA. He applied for five courses with varying entry requirements and now has four offers which have ended up being similar (because of contextual offers and one inexplicably wanting higher grades) - so 3 are for ABB and one is ABC. He will put the ABB university he likes the most as his firm choice but now he has visited the ABC uni on an offer holder day he has realised that he doesn't like it and doesn't want to go there. So my question is can he just put a firm and no reserve down? Or should he put two of the ABBs down? (there are two that he loves).
The second part of my question is that the work actuallyisnt going as well as those early predictions. In his last mocks he got A*CE so I think we need to be prepared post exams for a clearing scenario and would love to hear any tips on how to approach it. I keep thinking what a waste of time it all is, the research and the visits etc all before they even have these grades. I wish they could make their decisions based on actual facts!

I'll follow with interest if I may. Although my situation is slightly different, DSs school have done their usual and under predicted him - certainly if his mocks last month are anything to go by.

Our issue is that although he has 5 offers, he's now only interested in two and they both have the same grades. So not sure much point in having an "insurance".

I think there's still a point in having an insurance. This is because although 2 unis may have the same grades, you need to ask yourself, which one of them is more likely to flexible on results day? many universities make offer of grades they know they're probably not going to get on results days and drop a few grades when results come out.

Has either of them been regularly in Clearing before? if they have, chances are they will drop grades on D-day, however, there are no stats that tell you whether a university has been in Clearing previously, unless you've taken note in previous years.
But there are sites that tell you e.g what subjects and grades students who were made offers have had in the past by university (can't remember URL) and there's a site that tell you likeness of you getting an offer with your predicted grades by university (also forgotten URL)
Hopefully someone who what I'm referring to will be able to provide those links.

Uniguide for example here you can see what subjects and grades previous applicants who got offers got. I've chosen a random uni Newman uni and Computer science, if you scroll halfway down it tells you the following:

Most popular A-Levels studied (and grade achieved)
Computer Science
C
Physics
C
Law
B

You can do this search for any university and course and use that to decide which uni you're going to put as your firm v insurance regardless of their offers being the same.

Thanks kolani. I don't know how we have got this far without seeing the Uniguide. It is a great resource.. doesn't give me much hope for our case though. I wish I had looked at clearing last year

He should always of course put the one he likes best as first choice.

Then he can use another same grade offer as insurance as you can make enquiries and there is even time at present to do a FOI to see how many are accepted with lower grades. If you don't think it too outing to say the course or unis involved we may have an idea of whether he may get a place with dropped grades. DSS had QUB at BBB as his insurance and was accepted on BBD

@Stanleystuck

Thanks kolani. I don't know how we have got this far without seeing the Uniguide. It is a great resource.. doesn't give me much hope for our case though. I wish I had looked at clearing last year

There is a poster on MN who has a lot of clearing info and was able to give me data for what was in clearing for DS's subject for the past 10 years. I can't recall her name but perhaps she will see this

It's a fecking minefield, uni applications. It seems to massively favour those who know what they're doing.

I'd never thought I'd need to look at Clearing last year when DS hadn't even decided what degree he wanted to do , never having been to uni myself and DS being first in the family etc means we are working blind.

Add into that careers advisor at school saying definitively not to choose any aspirational options as it's such a tough year, and then his school under predicting him etc. A sorry mess, feeling a bit cheated tbh.

Still, won't be in this situation with younger DD...all over it now.....

Even if you haven't got enough time to FOI (up tp 20days turn around)you can get a pretty good idea of those who were in Clearing by just looking at the 'Grades Achieved' v Entry requirements for said course. Quite a lot of them are telling. You can PM if you want with the course name and universities.

I keep thinking what a waste of time it all is, the research and the visits etc all before they even have these grades. I wish they could make their decisions based on actual facts! This is so true. I think schools are so frantically funnelling everyone through, it’s easy to forget this is possible.. That way you know your grades, you can look at grade requirements (and sometimes there’s more wiggle room at this stage because the uni Is making an offer to the finished product rather than try to estimate where it needs to set the bar to avoid being overwhelmed while still filling it’s course). It’s something to think about if he doesn’t get either of his choices.

Hi Lillian, do you mean applying again next year with grades in hand rather than going through clearing? I think that is definitely worth it for him rather than make a quick clearing choice. He is applying to do maths and computer science joint and his favourite is Lancaster and his second favourite is York. I don't think there will be wiggle room on the grades as they have both given generous contextual offers. But if anyone has heard if they were in clearing I would be interested to know. Also if Heriot Watt were at all. They were the ones he liked who were always going to be the insurance but they also offered ABB which is higher than their advertised grades.

That’s exactly what I mean @Stanleystuck. My DD did this after a disastrous false start at Cardiff (her first choice) on a course she hated (long story!) She reapplied for the following year and was offered a place at Bristol practically by return of post - even though they hadn’t even made her an offer first time round. She then did the same in France (where we live) and also got a place in her first choice Paris uni which is where she is now. What is noticeable - certainly at UK universities - is just how many students have had at least a year (if not more) out. Everyone in my DD’s flat at Cardiff was a year, if not two, older than her. With the benefit of hindsight, I now realise that the rush to find a place while you are in the midst of exams and perhaps not quite sure how you will do or where you want to is just not necessary. Last year when my son was in a similar position to yours - holding a high offer for Birmingham (AAA) but with exams cancelled and Covid uncertainty about results - my advice to him was to do his best, but be prepared to take a gap year if he missed by a whisker. In the end he got his grades in the French Bac so all was well, but he too is one of the youngest on his course with a large proportion who have had a year or two out. Good luck to your DS - such a stressful time! So glad my two are now happily sorted - hindsight is a wonderful thing so I hope you can benefit a little bit from mine!

Realise the conversation has moved on somewhat but just wanted to echo that it is absolutely worth putting down another uni as an insurance. If there are any offer holders talks or opportunities it's always worth asking the question of how lenient the uni might be with offers (especially worth asking if there's any chance to talk to current students as they are likely to be more candid!)

Some universities are more likely to let you in with reduced grades than others depending on how popular the course is. For example, you're unlikely to get much leeway on results day from places like Durham, St Andrews or UCL but if you're thinking of others which aren't right at the top of the RG, maybe Sheffield, Liverpool, Cardiff (depending on the course) they might have some more leeway. DD scraped into her course at a RG uni with ABC, when her offer has been AAB.

The discoveruni.gov.uk website gives a breakdown of ucas points for those on the course. It’s useful as a course at somewhere like oxbridge or St Andrews may have entry criteria of AAA but realistically most of their students have 3A*s, whereas somewhere else may also ask for AAA but their students have an average of, for example ABB so you can judge who is likely to take people who’ve missed the grades. He could put his favourite down as his firm, his second favourite, but same grade, as his insurance with the hope that there will be wriggle room on the grades, and also look at other courses and anything that he likes the city and course content which has realistic entry criteria he can. He can identify places he likes who routinely take students with the grades he is likely to get so when clearing opens he will know what to look out for.