Predictions and offers

[sergeantmajor]

How does it work? Are you more likely to get an offer if your predictions exceed the grades asked for, than if they just meet them?

And is it worth applying for a uni that asks for one grade above what you are predicted, or is that a waste?

Would it be better to apply to 4 unis where your predictions match the grade requirement (with one lower one as back-up) so that you have a few chances at the right level, or go for a wider spread?

Thanks!

It’s often suggested to go for two aspirational ones, two realistic ones, and one safe bet.

A lot will depend on how sensible the predictions are for the DC in question. Some schools are much more conservative in their predictions, whilst others will give ‘if they work extra hard and everything goes well and the wind blows in the right direction’ top end predictions.

In terms of whether or not they’ll offer it predictions are slightly below, again depends on how popular the course is and how many other people have applied. DC could try contacting the admissions tutor for the course to try and get a sense of whether it would be an outright no or whether there may be a little wiggle room.

And generally yes, more likely to get an offer if your predicted grades exceed what they’re asking for, although personal statement and other factors might come into play depending on the course.

There’s no right or wrong and everyone seems to have their own rationale for doing their way. Some only apply to predicted grades and higher feeling certain they’ll achieve the predicted. It depends how conservative the school are with predictions. Students also know that some universities may offer AAB but commonly allow students with lower grades. But sometimes they don’t. This year is a good example as there were so many students vying for places some universities were harsher than usual. For example at DDs school a few teens who had offers of AAA (firm) AAA (insurance) and were predicted AAA or even AAA but results were AAB. They didn’t get into their firm or insurance. Although Ucas points of AAB equal AAA the universities said no.
It’s a dreadful system and I really wish they’d change it so students can apply with grades in hand.

I know two kids who had higher than asked for grades and still didn't get offers. It's been an odd couple years so it's hard to predict.

Just to mention you don't have to submit all 5 choices in 1 go. DC submitted a "realistic" one. Once she got an offer she submitted an extra aspirational one instead of a safe bet.
Obviously no guarantees you will get the offer before the deadline....

If you are in A* territory you need to be careful. It is worth looking at the Complete University Guide and sorting by entry requirements. The Universities at the top of the list will be in high demand and are likely to be rejecting applicants who meet entry requirements. You can then look at the University website and the offer/place to applicant ratio for that course. If it is more than 5 to 1 and the University is talking about the course being oversubscribed, and giving detailed guidance on the PS, follow that guidance and have a think.

Mine were both applying for oversubscribed courses. The tactics they used were to apply for those only and to plan a gap year as a fallback. Given the number of qualified applicants courses like Warwick Economics become a bit of a lottery, and so the chances of getting on a very competitive course are increased if you apply to all of them. They both ended up with two offers, but friends applying for similar courses got none first time round, though one boy then received a Cambridge offer on reapplication, and another friend got Imperial.

Thanks all - really useful. I did all this once before with my eldest but he was a top student. My middle boy is more of a wild card!