How accurate is theuniguide.co.Uk for grades achieved vs entry requirements?

SeasonFinale · 01/10/2021 10:38

I don't know about Leeds but Lancaster did previously give conditional unconditional offers. Statistics showed that this actually lead to students "relaxing" and thus achieving lower than their predictions hence the lower average grades.

Original poster

DrunkenUnicorn · 01/10/2021 11:33

Thank you.

I vaguely remember reading something a while ago about universities offering much lower offers if you put them as your firm choice or something… I guess that would lead to lower offers. Does that still happen often?

One of the Bs is a stretch… the other two grades are solid, possibly even could push the other B to an A. Worst case scenario we could be looking at ABC…. Best case AAB… so the school have said they’ll predict ABB and that’s what he should be looking at in terms with of entry requirements.

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RampantIvy · 01/10/2021 11:42

The general advice for university applications is to put one or two aspirational choices, two or three achievable choices and at least one insurance choice.

SeasonFinale · 01/10/2021 15:35

Yes. This year I might suggest only one aspirational and two more safe as it will be more competitive this year due to deferrals, the numbers applying with grades in hand and a high birth rate year.

jgw1 · 01/10/2021 15:47

@DrunkenUnicorn

Hi all,

I’m wondering if anyone knows how much weight/faith to put into information on entry requirements vs most popular a level studied and grade achieved?

This site lists both sets of information. For some courses they are the same, for others a grade or two lower for the ‘achieved’ grades- eg entry requirements say AAB, but average grade achieved is ABB.

And the golden question I suppose is, even if they were accurate in previous years, will they be accurate this year with lots of deferrals and grade increases?

DS is looking at ABB predictions and interested in politics and international relations. For example when I was looking at that website last week it was saying Leeds and Lancaster both wanted AAB for their course… but when you scrolled down the average grades were ABB.

We’re looking at it thinking is there any point in putting them down when they are a grade higher than he’s predicted?

Thank you

UCAS have a function on their website that is available to schools that shows the historic grades data that those studying each course at each university actually achieved.
Currently the data is for the years 2017-19.

For Politics and International relations at Lancaster 34% of students who started courses achieved ABB.

I am not seeing Politics and International relations at Leeds, but for both Politics and International History and Politics most students achieved AAA or higher.

It is worth noting that those years were prior to the pandemic grade inflation and that only 16% of students achieve the grades that they are predicted, with the majority getting lower grades.

jgw1 · 01/10/2021 15:49

@SeasonFinale

Yes. This year I might suggest only one aspirational and two more safe as it will be more competitive this year due to deferrals, the numbers applying with grades in hand and a high birth rate year.

The UCAS figures show that the number of deferrals is about 4000 higher this year than last year, with the demographic increase in number of 18 year olds it is possible that the proportion of deferred applicants will be lower this year than last year, and certainly will be lower than in 2012 and years before then.

SeasonFinale · 01/10/2021 18:53

I think however @jgw1 there may be more reapplying with grades in hand due to the much higher proportion of A*/A at 48%. Also the medics and some law students have been paid to defer and also have had free accommodation or other incentives too.

Boulshired · 01/10/2021 20:25

The issue may not be if they accept a drop in grade but if they will offer with grades predicted lower. AAB and above requirements are generally the most competitive. With exams and the unpredictability of Covid aspirational offers maybe more stricter. Quite a few universities were struggling this year with too many offer holders gaining the required results.

aeganblue2 · 02/10/2021 09:30

Watching this thread with interest. I’ve also noticed the difference DrunkenUnicorn and whereas the grades achieved are achievable the predictions are less so. So also scratching our heads!

Original poster

DrunkenUnicorn · 02/10/2021 10:35

Thanks all.

Sorry @jgw1, I’ve looked at so many institutions/courses and university websites as well as generic guide websites I might have got mixed up. They all start blurring into one after a while…

I didn’t realise the schools had that information, thank you. I suppose it’s therefore worth asking the school their opinion on a case by case basis in term of average grade for each course and therefore whether it’s worth applying.

@Boulshired, yes that’s my worry. If a course is showing as average grades bbb or whatever, but is asking for abb entry requirements, is it worth applying or will you get knocked back at the offer stage… hmmm I suppose that’s the important question.

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Boulshired · 02/10/2021 12:35

Five is plenty to take a risk of not getting one or even two offers. DD was advised to remove at least one or two of her safe choices as they would probably be in clearing even during covid. At the time she had one above, two at predicted and two below. She ended up with one above, three at predicted and one at a one grade drop. She was AAB predicted. It depends on the person resilience if they don’t get the offer, but if they don’t try and it’s a course unlikely to be in clearing/adjustment it maybe the only chance for the following year.

Phphion · 02/10/2021 13:15

The most popular A Levels and Average Grade Achieved is pretty meaningless statistically.

Each of the variables are independent of each other, so all it tells you is, for example, the most popular A Level taken was history and on average the people taking history got a B. Separately, the second most popular A Level taken was politics and on average the people taking politics got a B, and so on.

So for example, I have 3 students and they all take History, Politics and Economics for A Level. These are their results:

Student 1: Hist A, Pol B, Ec B
Student 2: Hist B, Pol A, Ec B
Student 3: Hist B, Pol B, Ec A

The most popular subjects and grades achieved are:
History B
Politics B
Economics B

But all the students have achieved the ABB entry requirements.

maofteens · 03/10/2021 15:41

All I can add is I know two applicants who had above the published offer grades and still did not get a place, presumably for the above mentioned reason of more than usual applicants getting higher grades, and deferred places from last year.

SeasonFinale · 03/10/2021 16:16

And it is set to be worse this year in terms of offers made.

Original poster

DrunkenUnicorn · 03/10/2021 16:43

Thank you all. @Phphion that makes sense and I’m very glad I asked!

The one he seems keenest on at the moment is hull. We haven’t been to an open day yet tho so we’ll see.

It’s such a worry for them. What with GCSES, missing so much time during the A level course, I really think this year group have been completely shafted (obviously not intentionally, just the way things have turned out)

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SeasonFinale · 03/10/2021 21:08

If it is Hull then I know a 2020 student that got in with BCD through clearing for Politics and IR so am fairly certain an ABB prediction may draw an offer and indeed were he to miss grades they may still accept him

aeganblue2 · 03/10/2021 21:49

DrunkenUnicorn good luck to your son! To have not only a course chosen but a first choice uni too, he has already accomplished a lot!
How do you- or is it possible- to know which courses went into clearing last year?

Blubells · 04/10/2021 08:12

Quite a few universities were struggling this year with too many offer holders gaining the required results.

Yes, that's the problem - Universities have had to honour too many offers due to the huge grade inflation (and way more students than normal achieving high grades) So I think they're going to be more cautious with their offers this year.

Boulshired · 04/10/2021 09:37

I am still hoping that covid will lead the way to a system with applying with grades in hand. As I do think this year offers are going to favour the aspirational grading college settings. DS2 was a pre covid example of grade prediction. He did not receive an offer for his aspirational but achieved the results and was accepted in adjustment. Two of his friends he met there did not meet their offer but got accepted anyway and both private educated.

jgw1 · 04/10/2021 17:43

@Boulshired

I am still hoping that covid will lead the way to a system with applying with grades in hand. As I do think this year offers are going to favour the aspirational grading college settings. DS2 was a pre covid example of grade prediction. He did not receive an offer for his aspirational but achieved the results and was accepted in adjustment. Two of his friends he met there did not meet their offer but got accepted anyway and both private educated.

Post result applications are fraught with difficulties. Who would support the students with their applications as schools do now? For regulated courses that require interviews (medicine, nursing, teaching for example) how would that be fitted into a reduced period of time? Universities would need much expanded admissions teams to handle the workload that is normally spread out into a much shorter a period of time? What would they do the rest of the year? Universities use the time from making offers until courses start to build a relationship with their new students- offer holder open days, courses, accommodation, clubs and so on. How would that be arranged?

And it presents particular challenges for international students where time is already very tight to ensure that visas are in place before courses start and if they do know they have a place in the UK may go to universities in other countries.

Blubells · 04/10/2021 17:48

Post result applications are fraught with difficulties.

Not really. Most European countries manage very well. Final exams are in April/May and results are published at the end of June. In Germany the deadline for the winter semester is 15 July.

It works very well!

Blubells · 04/10/2021 17:52

The problem is that the UK exam marking takes way too long. By only releasing results in mid August, it leaves little time to apply to Uni for that October.

SeasonFinale · 04/10/2021 18:28

Not forgetting those courses that interview too!

jgw1 · 04/10/2021 19:23

@Blubells

Post result applications are fraught with difficulties.

Not really. Most European countries manage very well. Final exams are in April/May and results are published at the end of June. In Germany the deadline for the winter semester is 15 July.

It works very well!

Reduce 6th form teaching time by about 10%. Are you also proposing cutting the specification contents?

Blubells · 04/10/2021 19:49

Are you also proposing cutting the specification contents?

Yes, that might free up some more time. The British curriculum is much more advanced than that of most other countries. It's not really necessary imo.