Difference between UCAS grade and predicted grade?

[MrsGethinJones]

Based on DDs Lower Sixth mocks she has achieved UCAS grades of AAB. She and I have been using this information to determine which universities to visit.
DD now tells me that her ‘predicted grades’ based on the same set of mocks is BBB, and ive just noticed this in the small print of her school report too.

Im really confused - whats the different between these 2 grades, and should we be looking at universities with entrance requirements of AAB or BBB?

I sat exams in the Scottish system which seem very different, and a very long time ago!

It might be the difference between a secure A and a more likely B.
But probably worth speaking to the tutor with regard to what they will submit to UCAS

UCAS grades are what they will submit to UCAS and range from best case scenario through slightly optimistic to realistic depending on the school. The predicted grades are probably ‘on course for’ unless your DC makes some improvements, which they might throughout Y13. Best to check with the school to see what they mean by them. Some unis will only offer if the UCAS predicted grades meet the standard offer, but might accept you even if you miss a grade.

Thanks @NotRainingToday i will definitely check with school when DD returns.

The school will submit AAB to UCAS and there was even discussion about submitting A*AB if she can bump up one subject over the summer with revision.

Stilll confused about the difference between the AAB results and BBB and what this means about what level of universities to look at. Wished I’d realised this at the end of last term as open days are very soon!

Thank you @SusannahSophia, this is helpful. Will definitely check with the school

It means that the UCAS grades are optimistic and she should make sure she has an insurance offer that is more realistic.

At our school they list 3 grades: predicted grade ie what they will put on the form, most likely grade - what they think the pupil is likely to achieve on exam day (may be the same but may not be) and current working level (self explanatory).

A higher predicted grade as explained by other above allows a student to one or two aspirational universities. However if their most likely grade is lower then they should ensure they include unis that accept at that level to in their application together with perhaps an ultra safe one in case even those grades are missed on the day.

Also, my school advises one to two aspirational, one to two realistic and one to two safe insurances on the UCAS form. By the time you have to choose firm and insurance next year, your DC and teachers will be more confident with their ‘on course for in the exams’ grade so you’ll be able to make good choices of firm and insurance if you have a good mix of offers.

They think that, on the basis of what they know at the moment, she's most likely to get BBB. However, it's possible that that might go up to AAB. If they put BBB on the UCAS form, universities that want AAB may not bother making her an offer. So by putting AAB on there, she may get the AAB/ABB offers, but she should definitely make sure she has applied to universities that will make lower offers, since there's no guarantee that she could achieve the higher ones. If she can get herself offers ranging from AAB to BCC, then hopefully by the time she needs to accept she and her teachers will have a better idea of what she's heading for, and she can accept a first choice offer that she has a realistic chance of making, and a second choice that she is reasonably sure of making.

I suspect schools are getting better at explaining this, as I think a lot of people assumed during covid that what went on the UCAS form was what their child would get as their teacher assessed grade.

DD had 3, predicted grades were based on GCSE so never changed, UCAS (teacher predicted) and currently working at grade. When there was big differences the teacher would explain the discrepancy. With DD it was her knowledge was there but needed to improve his answers and referencing. So as this was down practice a B to A could be predicted. DS1 only had 2, predicted first from GCSE but then became teacher predicted which would go as UCAS and currently working at grades.

Thanks everyone!

Gosh, DD and I have been doing this wrongly by looking for AAB/ABB type universities 🤦‍♀️.

I think Ive missed a communication from school about how to interpret DD’s grades. Oddly the careers advisor in a 121 meeting told me that Bath would be a good option for DD if one of her As is uplifted to A* however I honestly dont remember her saying that this would be an ‘aspirational grade’ and may not be achieved!

Anyway, this I’m so glad i posted here last night as the explanations make a lot of sense. Thank you!

You should still pick 1 or 2 AAB universities though. They may be aspirational now but might become realistic next year.