A level inflation - half to get A or A stars......

[mids2019]

So we have maybe up to half of A level students getting A or A stars this year due to teacher assesed grades.

This degree of grade inflation does seem unsustainable but are we prepared for significant grade deflation in future years to get back to pre pandemic normality?

How many students will now be deferring with the hope of entering a higher tariff institution?

Does this means newer universities are going to be losing out on students?

Should there maybe even other methods of identifying high achievers if courses are competitive?

@mids2019

Interesting responses. I would think some kind of extension of top grades to A star star or a number system may be the way forward.

It will be interesting to see the impact on educational inequality on the new means of assessment. If those from disadvantaged groups have faired relatively well under the new system will the government wish to continue with this form of assessment in some form?

I think universities will be under pressure to re evaluate their admissions criteria; the question is how to make this fair?

Unfortunately Unis are already committed to this year's offers. If an offer holder gets the grades in the offer letter, they have to be given the place if they want it. I just hope that Unis learned from last year's almost identical situation and gave higher offers or fewer offers this year in anticipation of history repeating itself.

Looking forward, there's no way that the exam boards can lower the grade boundaries back to normal levels next year as that just makes the unfairness worse - they "could" do it gradually over a number of years but more urgent action is needed. I agree with you, I expect an A* grade to be introduced for next year. Then Unis will increase their grade requirements accordingly - a BBB entry requirement will become AAA, an AAA will become AAA and A requirement for a specific course subject (i.e. Maths) will become A*.

Very tough on people who got their A levels pre Covid, back in the day when a B or A was respected and showed a high standard. Those people are now downgraded when competing against covid year students and potentially future years.

Well looking at the results today it would appear that there has been massive grade inflation. This will have a big impact on universities and is going to make it a nightmare for the kids sitting A Levels next year. There will be less places and the universities are going to have to hike up their standard offers to ensure they have less successful applicants. What a nightmare for next years kids. After that I suspect that the Russell Group Universities will start to introduce their own entrance exams (like Oxbridge) to sort out the truly bright kids and A Level results will become meaningless. Maybe this is the way forward but I wouldn’t want to be a child stuck in the transition.

It was ridiculous to axe the exams this year.

It has so many knock-on effects; I expect masses of kids will now be trying to upgrade or apply to oxbridge with grades in hand - many more than should do in a “normal” year.

The GCSE grades will also be problematic. Many, many uphills who are not really suited to science or maths feeling that as they have the required grade (6 at DD’s comp) then they are entitled to take the A Level course when in actual fact an 8 or 9 is necessary in order not to struggle badly.

There has already been grade inflation for years. Not to mention that wealthy kids get coaching to bump up their grades. This is nothing new.

Actually the big scandal has been kids doing BTEC instead of A-level - because BTEC was marked by the teacher whereas A-level was marked by an external examiner. So the teachers would mark higher and bump up BTEC grades, in many cases telling lies and falsifying paperwork. The result was BTEC students with a huge number of UCAS points vs A-level students who were more capable but had less UCAS points because their grades weren’t being inflated. External exams have now been introduced for BTEC to reduce this problem, but the fact remains that part of the BTEC is still marked by the teacher who undoubtedly inflates the grades.

My feel for this from DS who teaches A levels.
The students have been tested more than usual, test after test along with class work so that teachers have evidence to support the given grade.
Many of his students could easily have sat the A level and done well, particularly the A ones. They were disadvantaged by cancelling the exams because the school "moderated" grades down in many cases. For example 5 in a class merited A based on tests and class work but that would have been disproportionate so only 4 are allowed A*

The big problem will be that when they get to Uni they have missed chunks of the curriculum in their subject.

Is this the new norm? If we don't accept grade deflation in future universities will have to give serious thought about their selection strategies?

How do we go about determining entry to oxbridge and medical courses in a fair and robust way. Will a pupil getting a clutch of grades at a and a star be 'oxbridge material' or just within the top 45% of sixth formers?

I can just see there being more of a lottery aspect for highly competitive courses in future unless resource is given for additional selection procedures.

Also 70% of A levels at private schools were awarded A or A star and so there is still a gap between state and private.

@mids2019

Is this the new norm? If we don't accept grade deflation in future universities will have to give serious thought about their selection strategies?

How do we go about determining entry to oxbridge and medical courses in a fair and robust way. Will a pupil getting a clutch of grades at a and a star be 'oxbridge material' or just within the top 45% of sixth formers?

I can just see there being more of a lottery aspect for highly competitive courses in future unless resource is given for additional selection procedures.

Also 70% of A levels at private schools were awarded A or A star and so there is still a gap between state and private.

I suspect Uni's will increase their minimum grade requirements AND start looking at other aspects again, such as going back to looking at other things which seem to have been forgotten by some unis, such as the written PS, more emphasis on volunteering and other non academic experiences, maybe more interviews, etc. I think Unis have become a little lazy in concentrating mostly on A level grades in recent times.

mids Medical schools and (some) Oxbridge courses already have admissions tests and interviews to select offer holders and don't rely exclusively on A level grades. For example, although very many potential applicants for Oxbridge Maths will achieve 4xA* A levels only half will reach the required standard in the MAT or STEP.

@ofteninaspin

I get your point but dies this mean there will be more emphasis on the bespoke tests/interviews for oxbridge/medicine?

Will these selection systems cope logistically if a lot more people are in a position to apply?

So will oxbridge style additional tests/interviews be taken up by other universities for popular courses as you need a fair filter when oversubscribed?

I guess Oxbridge could simply raise the bar in its admissions tests and still invite the same numbers for interview? More of an issue for Cambridge who have begun to phase out the use of admissions tests for some subjects/colleges, tend to invite greater numbers to interview and use multiple A* offers to filter out offer holders on results day.

In the US where all grades are teacher assessed, and therefore not uniform across the country, universities use standardised admissions tests which measure aptitude, not attainment.

I could see the UK going this way.

I think we will see more of the selective universities using tests, I number already use the LNAT and STEP and I think we will see the expansion of the Thinking Skills test and maybe to a lessor extent the HAT and ELAT. More pressure for our already over tested and over examined teenagers.

University where DH works talking about an 'entrance exam'.

Funny how everyone who’s kids have ‘done well’ claim their 6th form and school have graded fairly and not over inflated!

A couple of universities, in addition to Oxbridge, use the MAT (Maths Admissions Test). Maybe other top universities will use HAT, PAT, TSA etc. It will make a 2 tier university system. My DS's state school already have an inset day on the Admissions Tests day as they have so many candidates sitting. Admissions tests also may mean 'early entry' (15th Oct?)... more pressure on schools.

Just go back to capping grades:
10% A star
20% A grades
20% B grades
20% C grades
15% D grades
10% E grades
5% Ungrades

50% above average 50% average/below average.
Everyone will know where they stand.

(Make some exams easier, so 54% is not an A grade for maths. A star should be 90% plus, A grade 70% plus etc. Students barely being able to do more than half the paper will not see themselves as a competent mathematician even if they do come out as an A grade).

They should have offered something different for this year and last year - "Pandemic Awards" or similar perhaps, denoted with a (p) or a (C19) some other symbol after the grade. Then could have gone back to A-levels as we knew them, once exams can run properly again.

@Olympicfan

A couple of universities, in addition to Oxbridge, use the MAT (Maths Admissions Test). Maybe other top universities will use HAT, PAT, TSA etc. It will make a 2 tier university system. My DS's state school already have an inset day on the Admissions Tests day as they have so many candidates sitting. Admissions tests also may mean 'early entry' (15th Oct?)... more pressure on schools.

Just go back to capping grades:
10% A star
20% A grades
20% B grades
20% C grades
15% D grades
10% E grades
5% Ungrades

50% above average 50% average/below average.
Everyone will know where they stand.

(Make some exams easier, so 54% is not an A grade for maths. A star should be 90% plus, A grade 70% plus etc. Students barely being able to do more than half the paper will not see themselves as a competent mathematician even if they do come out as an A grade).

My ds achieved A maths and Afurther maths, he definitely didn't get just 50%. He consistently scored 85%+ throughout the two years. I can not see how maths grades can possibly be inflated. He earned his place at Warwick. I'm sick of reading posts about so called grade inflation

Plus there was STEP

In the US where all grades are teacher assessed, and therefore not uniform across the country, universities use standardised admissions tests which measure aptitude, not attainment.

Many selective universities in the USA no longer use SATs, and the scope of the tests has been greatly reduced: economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/study/planning-to-study-in-the-us-the-sats-have-changed-and-this-is-what-it-means-for-you/articleshow/81323605.cms. It seems likely they'll disappear entirely in the near future. There will be greater emphasis in the USA on advanced placements (AP), which are externally assessed like A-Levels.

Every year there seems to be more and more kids getting A and A grades. This year they’ve been massively inflated because the teachers did the grading. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. It makes a mockery of the system and is unfair on the kids who don’t sit the exams in one of the years where the grades have been inflated. If we end up with A or A* it would look ridiculous. If I was an employer recruiting new employees and I saw someone had straight As I would wonder if it was in the Covid year. A Levels used to be known as hard. Not anymore it seems.

Grades are not inflated everywhere this year. Just mostly in a certain sector I'm afraid. Moderation was a joke. Nothing to do with on line teaching. All to do with how grades were determined. Not fair on those kids who would have got top grades.

@mumsneedwine private schools only make up 16% of A-level students, there was inflation across the board

So in 2018 when GCSEs were changed to 1-9 for most subjects, only 700 pupils were awarded 9s in all subjects in England. I wonder what that figure will be tomorrow?

I think you need to look school by school. Some elite private schools have held their grades in check. They know they will attract scrutiny and are being very careful. To the detriment of their students who have their grades held in place while grades are generally being inflated.

Also, for selective private schools most of their students are on the upper boundaries so inflation will take them into the A or A* territory. Meanwhile a comprehensive will have the majority of its students pushing from Cs to Bs as a consequence of grade inflation.

You have to study the data carefully.

Scrapping exams was a terrible idea. Everyone should have been given their raw scores as a baseline. (This would have yielded a lot of useful data about which schools were managing better than others and which students were most affected.) student results and grades for the purposes of university entrance could have then been adjusted for time out of the classroom, sickness, etc.

Instead we have a situation where no one can be held accountable. Not schools, teachers, OFSTED, or the government. Funny that.