No offer despite better than required A levels

[Midlifephoenix]

If a university states the offer level requirements for a course is, say, A,A,B, and your predicted grades are A*,A,A, surely you could expect to get offered a place? Extra curricular includes gold D of E, grade 8 music and work experience in the proposed field of study etc. Do you think the increased last year acceptances due to the better grades plus those who deferred entry last year has decreased the numbers universities are admitting this year? It was the second choice so now fear she won't get her first choice which is tougher!

The application will have been ranked alongside the other applications. There are always only a finite number of places available.

Yes there will be some unis that have deferred a number of places last year.

Yes there will.be people perhaps applying with better grades in hand.

Yes the unis are expecting the grades to be higher still than 2020.

All these factors and the fact that they do not want to be in a position whereby they have to accommodate everyone meeting their offers mean they are making fewer offers this year at recruiting unis.

In a normal year only 17% predicted grades are correct and therefore there becomes a natural deselection of students at each tier after exam results come through.

sorry correction : that should say "selecting " unis not recruiting unis.

Have they got any offers?

DS is also waiting to hear from his top choice, very competitive uni, plus his second choice. He's trying hard to manage his expectations, so I recognise your sentiment. It's been a tough 12 months for Y13.

In my experience the offer level is unrelated to who gets an offer at a selecting university . Everyone who applies will have at least the minimum offer as predicted. If it’s an academic university then the music and D of E will be irrelevant as they are only interested in your academic interest in your chosen subject and the personal statement should reflect this. Also bear in mind the more selective the university the more they are putting together a cohort.

This has just happened to my DS with Warwick- rejected last week despite predictions of AAA which is higher than the course requirements.
I think had he applied earlier by the oxbridge deadline then he would have had an offer.His school were only interested in getting the oxbridge, medical, vet and law kids sorted so his ucas form went off later. However since the exams are now teacher predicted admissions have changed their criteria. I'm actually wondering if this is ethical/legal to change admission criteria halfway through the year? Would anyone from admissions have the legislature on this please?

What course is it? Have they changed the criteria or have they said that because the applications are so competitive that this is how they have scored them. For example, medicine courses so have different cut off levels each year. Historically Exeter interviewed all med applicants who applied with 3 x A* predictions. This year they did not due to the increased number of applicants and priority being given to those with grades in hand.

@nancypineapple why do you think admissions have changed their decision making? What are you basing that on?

Predicted grades are not assumed to be correct. They often aren’t and some schools are assumed to be optimistic rather than realistic. Are the GCSE grades good?

Gcse grades were six 9s the rest 8s.
I would have thought the extra stuff (d of e and music) would help when deciding between kids that have the same grades - i realise that many children will have the same predictions. He has got in to his third choice, but it's a distant third.
I also know of a girl who got all 9s at GCSE, did an extra one on her own in Y10 'just for fun' (got a 9 too), was in cadets, drama, sang, volunteered all over the place, all A* predicted (your all around perfect candidate - bright, creative, self motivated, etc), and didn't get in to Cambridge (to do English).

@nancypineapple I was accepted everywhere I applied apart from Warwick eons back, fingers crossed your DS gets good news from his other choices!

Getting the required grades only means that an applicant will be considered for a place. It doesn't automatically guarantee one.

As a pp has said, Gold DofE and music are not relevant to the application. They are concerned about the academic interest and achievement. It’s very different to the statements many of us parents wrote when we applied years ago.

I'm actually wondering if this is ethical/legal to change admission criteria halfway through the year? Would anyone from admissions have the legislature on this please?

But they haven’t changed the criteria. Predicted grades is only one part of the admissions process.

@nancypineapple which Warwick course has changed its entry criteria since exams were cancelled?

It’s not so much changing the entry criteria but giving too many offers early ( before exams were cancelled) and now unable to give offers to potentially stronger applicants for the fear of having too many students meet the offer with grade inflation.
Universities are meant to consider each applicant equally as long as they submit their application before the deadline. There seem to be some anecdotal evidence that this is not happening since news exams were cancelled broke.

It happens every year. Nobody is entitled to receive an offer from a particular university, but it's usually a shock when it happens because it's often the first time that DC have been rejected. Last year DD was gutted to receive a "Sorry we can't make you an offer, because we've had too many strong applications" email from the uni she wanted tobe her insurance choice. Her predicted grades comfortably exceeded their standard offer. Luckily she got the grades for her firm.

Sorry I think my post was misleading- it wasn't supposed to be a statement but more of a question. DS has applied for economics-waiting for LSE and UCH, offers from Nottingham and his insurance Loughborough.
His ps was v competitive, his grades are good, goes to a London state non selective comp, has v good work experience in top global firms. Previous students from his school have been offered Warwick on less whereas this yrs cohort have been rejected. ( theres around 10 of his friends that he knows of) So I think my question is has their admission process changed since December/January and if his was an early Ucas entry would he have stood a better chance? If so is this an ethical way to run admissions?

@LondonMischief this is what I am realising- despite claiming otherwise admissions are now unable to consider each application fairly.

@LondonMischief

It’s not so much changing the entry criteria but giving too many offers early ( before exams were cancelled) and now unable to give offers to potentially stronger applicants for the fear of having too many students meet the offer with grade inflation. Universities are meant to consider each applicant equally as long as they submit their application before the deadline. There seem to be some anecdotal evidence that this is not happening since news exams were cancelled broke.

^. This

Exams being cancelled will have ch as need things

Most unis make a certain number of early offers to high scoring applicants based on historic data and then have to wait to give equal consideration to the remainder. I do not believe that equal consideration has not been given just that they are giving fewer offers because they cannot accommodate every one with the required grades knowing that most will meet their predictions this year. If you believe a uni has not given equal consideration to an applicant no doubt you will report them to UCAS.

@nancypineapple

Sorry I think my post was misleading- it wasn't supposed to be a statement but more of a question. DS has applied for economics-waiting for LSE and UCH, offers from Nottingham and his insurance Loughborough. His ps was v competitive, his grades are good, goes to a London state non selective comp, has v good work experience in top global firms. Previous students from his school have been offered Warwick on less whereas this yrs cohort have been rejected. ( theres around 10 of his friends that he knows of) So I think my question is has their admission process changed since December/January and if his was an early Ucas entry would he have stood a better chance? If so is this an ethical way to run admissions?

It's not really that the admissions process has changed, rather the circumstances have.

Many more students than usual deferred last year, so there's less places this year.

Add to the fact the grading system this year and last have resulted in (or are expected to) significant grade inflation thus meaning there is an expectation that the majority of offer holders will get their expected grade - reducing the number of offers further.

This means popular Uni's are really cherry picking even more than usual this year and even applicants with predicted grades over the entry requirements are being pipped to the post by those with predicted grades (plus GCSE's and personal statements) that are even better.

DS applied early and fortunately got a full set of offers (inc Cambridge) but he was very lucky. On the Oxbridge application thread we saw many, many super able children that you would have thought were a shoe in failing to get an offer (and Cambridge admitted in Radio 4 they were making fewer offers this year).

Several high profile schools such as Eton have seen a massive drop in O/C offers compared to the past.

In DS's school (state) they usually get 5/6 Oxbridge offers - this year there was just 2.

Was the early application an advantage? I honestly don't know and as I've said DS got a "full set". Having said that his friends who applied later have nearly all got a "full set" as well including offers from very prestigious Uni's like Edinburgh Durham, Warwick, Bristol, York, Lancaster, St Andrew's etc so I've seen no evidence in that sense that DS got a better chance as an early applicant.

It's really disappointing OP if they don't get an offer they want and their is no doubt this year it's been much tougher but I don't think the Uni's have been unethical in any way - rather they are dealing with the challenges of the pandemic as best they can.

My DS is predicted A*AA and did not get places at a few uni's requesting those grades.

It's been a bit random. He did not get into Bath, but got a reduced offer for Bristol (AAC) due to "background".

It seems to be highly competitive this year, maybe as 30% of pupils deferred last year, so there's a lot fewer places. coupled with the possibility of grade inflation again.

I don't understand how you can give equal consideration if you start giving out offers before the application deadline. Even if they go by historic data I feel fewer offers have been given after the cancellation of AL.

I think if a candidate is absolutely outstanding and working on previous data of no matter when they applied in the cycle you would have offered them a place, then it is fair and equal access. To cry foul because a child didn't get into their preferred uni is hurtful to those children who did get an offer. Making out that somehow they have cheated the system.

According to UCAS in January of 2020, 568,330 students applied to uni, whereas in January of 2021 that figure is 616,360. How many of those are year 14s with grades in hand I don't know. If Chickeny is correct and 30% deferred then there are much fewer places that usual anyway.

My own child has 4 offers but he has been doing extra stuff outside of the classroom since year 10 for his chosen subject. He has also attended things for adults who work in the industry to get a feel of his subject in the real world.

As a pp has said, Gold DofE and music are not relevant to the application. They are concerned about the academic interest and achievement Every man and his dog has DofE. They don't care about your extra curricular activities, they care about what you have done outside the classroom to show an interest in your subject. So the girl who didn't get into Cambridge spent her time singing and dancing. Did she attend any English workshops? Masterclasses? Summer schools? Engaged in debate in a book club? No? Why would Cambridge offer her a place? What tells them she loves English?

Well OP I think that sounds tough on your child. People are right the D of E etc is inconsequential but the grades sound more than enough. I'd be a bit naffed off too.

The only thing I can suggest is you turn the experience into a positive by bagging those grades and taking an amazing gap year. i appreciate that may be tricky due to Covid but have a think. Your child can reapply early with the grades in the bag and who knows come out on top.