Predicted grades vs expected offers

[MadamBuxton]

My DS has been told today that his reference grade for University applications is a B in a subject where he is hoping for an A. He doesn’t have all of them yet but this most likely means he will have ABB predicted rather the AAB he was hoping for. Most of the Universities he was planning to apply to want AAB for his course (according to the likely offers published on websites etc.).

Does anyone know the likelihood of him getting an offer from these places based on these predicted grades? Any past experience?

TIA

Hi @MadamBuxton. UCAS grades are not the same as predictions. Generally speaking schools err on the generous side when giving UCAS grades: it's a bit of a vicious circle because schools know other schools do it, and universities know that schools do it, and so they set their offers higher to compensate (universities also need to be seen as competitive in a buyer's market, so no institution wants to be the one asking for BCC when every other 'good' uni is asking for AAB).

However, although they're generous, they shouldn't be totally unattainable; if a pupil has, say, a 20% chance of getting an A, or has produced A grade work but not consistently, then I'd be happy to put an A as a UCAS grade, but I wouldn't for a pupil who had only ever produced C grade work.

Generally speaking, universities won't offer to pupils with lower predicted grades than their official requirements, although it depends slightly on how competitive the course/university is.

Assuming your son's school operates on a similar system (and I think most should), it sounds as though he might be being over ambitious in his choice of courses. He might be better off looking for courses with lower grade requirements, to avoid a situation where he receives an offer and then fails to meet the grades.

At my school we give predicted grades later in the year, post mocks, and these are the grades we actually expect the pupils to get: they're much more accurate than UCAS grades for that reason!

I meant to add, clearing can be a good way for pupils who've exceeded their offer to get onto more competitive courses, as universities often drop their requirements if they still have spaces after results day.

www.ucas.com/advisers/offer-rate-calculator/
Depends on the market basically. Lots of places will ask for AAB. Some will only offer to those students with those grades because it's an easy way to whittle down the numbers. Some will only take those grades on results day, some will take a whole lot less. Depends on their numbers that year. The UCAS calculator takes into account historical data - so what has been enough to get into that course in previous years.
Aim high by all means as universities will often take a firm candidate in a lower grade. If he's not sure yet leave a space or two free on the form for a lower tariff option closer to the deadline.

when my daughter applied last year, leicester uni asked for ABB and when she got her offer it was BBC. So what ever they say on the uni websites, its not always strictly the offer. Some are if they are popular and over subscribed, but some are not and do offer lower than advertised.

This year it will be less likely that there will be low offers for competitive courses at competitive unis due to the deferment issues.

Thanks all. He now tells me it’s a preliminary grade that could change depending on performance in upcoming tests so at least he’s got the opportunity to improve it. I’ve had a look at the UCAS offer calculator, which is encouraging, but like a pp said things might be tougher this year.

@sammyjoanne, what were your DD's predicted grades for her UCAS application? I think that e.g. Birmingham makes low offers to those predicted high grades, so to speak, ?as their replacement for the 'unconditional if firmed' offers. I assume it's so that they can be fairly confident that the student is capable of doing better, even if they slip to the threshold in the actual exams. So not offering at all to the CCC predicted applicant, but offering CCC to the A*AA predicted for an AAB course or whatever? Although not sure about this year, when - unless one attended a school which decided to pre-moderate results - grades at the threshold would indicate both that the school's UCAS prediction was a bit OTT and that, had exams happened, getting CCC or whatever in August wouldn't actually have been due to a series of unexpected hiccups on exam days.

Perhaps that will only have happened in so few cases as to statistically meaningless, though. And I may have completely misunderstood the university's system there.

Generally speaking, universities won't offer to pupils with lower predicted grades than their official requirements, although it depends slightly on how competitive the course/university is.

Where on earth do you get this from? It's utterly wrong.

OP I'd put £100 on him getting 5 out of 5 offers, even with ABB predicted if he's aiming at AAB institutions.

That’s encouraging thanks @titchy and seems consistent with what the UCAS offer predictor told me. I’m hoping the ‘preliminary’ nature of the grades is being used as a motivational tool by the school for mocks etc.!

[quote MarchingFrogs]**@sammyjoanne*, what were your DD's predicted grades for her UCAS application? I think that e.g. Birmingham makes low offers to those predicted high grades, so to speak, ?as their replacement for the 'unconditional if firmed' offers. I assume it's so that they can be fairly confident that the student is capable of doing better, even if they slip to the threshold in the actual exams. So not offering at all to the CCC predicted applicant, but offering CCC to the AAA predicted for an AAB course or whatever? Although not sure about this year, when - unless one attended a school which decided to pre-moderate results - grades at the threshold would indicate both that the school's UCAS prediction was a bit OTT and that, had exams happened, getting CCC or whatever in August wouldn't actually have been due to a series of unexpected hiccups on exam days.

Perhaps that will only have happened in so few cases as to statistically meaningless, though. And I may have completely misunderstood the university's system there.[/quote]
Hi Marching frogs.
My daughter did Maths, Further Maths, Chemistry and Physics and her predicted grades from teachers that were put into her UCAS were AAAA
She applied to 4 unis:
Oxford - wanted AAA website - got to interview stage and rejected.
York - wanted AAA on website- got offered AAA to get in
Leicester -Wanted ABB on website- offered her BBC
Lancaster (for 2 physics courses) - Wanted AAA on website, offered unconditional offer if she firmed (which she took a week after oxford rejection)

So as above, some unis offered what was advertised, some dropped their grades by a 1 or 2 grades, and some offer unconditionals.
From the 2020 applicants there was caps on unconditional offers, even before covid; and I imagine offering a low grade entrance offer is another way of getting that student to choose them.

Uni will drop a grade offer if they feel the student has potential. So if an offer is AAA and the student is AAB student, then they wont reject them, they may still offer the AAA or even drop to the AAB; its more down to the department, and the admissions staff there, number of applicants etc. And even if they offered AAA and the student actually achieves AAB on exam day, they will still accept them on grade forgiveness.

I would say if a student is making an application for 2021, my advice is to choose a uni which are aspirational. Then choose 2 or 3 unis which are achievable to what the student feels they can obtain comfortably, then have a uni choice which is what they would choose if they got clearing (but is still a pretty half decent uni).
Then come January-March after the offers come in, the student is in a better position to judge themselves what they think they are going to get and make the choice from that. By Feburary March the students should have covered the main bulk of their course and have more of a better judgement on their abilities, and thus make a decision which they feel comfortable with.

My son got three Bs in his summer assessments. College says it will go one grade higher but no more. So he could get AAA predictions. However, realistically I think the best he will do is AAB.

He has one uni in mind that may ask for AAA, but the rest will be AAB to BBB, possibly BBC. I'd definitely apply for a bit of a mix..

@cologne4711

My son got three Bs in his summer assessments. College says it will go one grade higher but no more. So he could get AAA predictions. However, realistically I think the best he will do is AAB.

He has one uni in mind that may ask for AAA, but the rest will be AAB to BBB, possibly BBC. I'd definitely apply for a bit of a mix..

Thats a good idea, then by the time January February comes, he can make a decision then as to how he feels hes going to fair in exams.

" Generally speaking, universities won't offer to pupils with lower predicted grades than their official requirements, although it depends slightly on how competitive the course/university is."

As pp have said, this isn't true. All of DD's friends applied to at least one uni with higher grade requirements than they were predicted, and all got offers.

The whole process frustrates me. I wish there was more transparency about what grades each university and course will accept. It must be so hard to navigate if you are new to it.