Will it be terrible for children applying for good universities next year?

[nesebe7331]

It seems that due to the A-level fiasco this year, many parents decided that their children should take a gap year and will apply for university places next year instead. This is due to:

1. Either their children did not get enough scores for a good place.

1. Or after appeals, the children finally get the scores they wanted but it is too late to apply for their preferred university.

So it seems in 2021, these gap-year children will compete with other younger children for Oxbridge and other good places.

So will it be terrible for the younger children next year?

Not true. I. Fact there's less deferrals this year. In addition this year is a low birth year.

See here:

The number of prospective students who have accepted an offer to start on a degree course this autumn has risen despite disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic, Ucas figures suggest.
Fewer applicants have opted for a deferred university place compared to this time last year, according to the admissions service for higher education.

many parents decided that their children should take a gap year

Firstly, the moment a parent suggested it, the DC would run a mile. Secondly, with no jobs, no travel & the thought of spending another year in and out of lockdown at home with their parents whilst their friends have moved on, most DC are desperate to start the next stage of their lives.

Hi - I work at a university (academic) and it is true that we there is a demographic dip that starts to shift this year. The situation is complex. This year, the cap on numbers was lifted, as you know. It is likely to remain uncapped going forwards. Some unis that rely on a lot of international students predicted a big shortfall due to Covid and were poised to hoover up as many domestic students as possible,. However, it is very mixed picture across the sector, with some groups of international students still wanting to attend. The full picture for Sept starts is still unclear in many places.

Even so, unis took as many students as they could after the A Level U-turn. But they are hampered by resources: no one can employ lots of staff and throw up new student halls quickly (and bear in mind that many HEIs have gone for redundancies already!). Added to that is Covid and social distancing. In this sense, the picture this year depends on the individual uni: shortfall in international students, resources, Covid.

Going forwards, all unis and groups (such as UUK) will press hard for policy decision making early, plus funding. Will there be any of this? So far, it has been beyond poor from the government.There might also be uneven recruitment due to the HEI market. However, the A level U-turn and Covid have thrown the government's plans to keep bashing at HE in the air somewhat: throwing lots of young people under the bus will do the government massive damage. So, we all hope for a better response.

What I can say is that unis are committed to social and public good (in spite of the horrible market in HE): they will fight tooth and nail for next year's cohorts.

The big issues isn't I think pupils deciding they fancy a gap year, it is how many 2021 places have already been filled by universities having to adapt to the grade-surge from CAGs

many parents decided that their children should take a gap year and will apply for university places next year instead

Our last one becomes a legal adult in six weeks time. Even if I thought I had much chance of doing anything more than try to persuade him to go / not go to university at a particular time, I'm not sure I would want to.
Are these mummies and daddies using financial or emotional blackmail to make sure that their 'children's do as they are told?

Depends how you define 'good' university .

@OrangeCinnamon1Agreed!

I think the definition of a "good university" may have changed over the last couple of weeks.

Lots of universities are making herculean attempts to take as many as possible this year. There may be differences within universities for different courses. Almost everyone I know had been slotted in this year with only a handful choosing to defer. Hoghgyni is spot on, some universities have been incredibly responsive and helpful, others not so.

As tryingmybest13 says, some urgent support and planning is needed for next year

This is my worry for DD applying for Oxford next year.

The course that she is applying for is small already.

Actually those applying with CAGS and hoping to retake in Autumn are more likely to be behind this year's y13s at good unis because the uni more than likely take into account that teachers that knew them did not rank them highly or they would have made it either on 13/8 or at least on a cag upgrade. This obviously is a shame for a school that do proper modelling and capped their grades themselves and conversely those that have overinflated grades are watching swathes get into places they may well have missed had exams been taken.

In any event may unis/colleges will have some 15-20% less places to offer and we anticipate y13s will be prioritised.

In any event may unis/colleges will have some 15-20% less places to offer and we anticipate y13s will be prioritised.

Is this because more than anticipated have been admitted this year, or taking into account those that have had to defer?

@SeasonFinale

"unis/colleges will have some 15-20% less places to offer and we anticipate y13s will be prioritised."

How do you know this?

Are we talking Russell Group/Oxbridge ?

I am not sure where the 15-20% fewer places comes from? It is a complicated picture that still has to settle for this year! Poor policy planning from government needs to be sorted!

PS if anyone is interested in defers thus far, this is the latest analysis (Note: international students will always be key in parts of the sector, but not all). Home students - so far, not many defers!

wonkhe.com/wonk-corner/whos-deferring/

This might all change again if Nicola sturgeon announces full online teaching. More might want to defer. What a mess.

untamed yes Cambridge have over offered by 1200 places for 3450 places and they can't all fit in this year so some are being deferred plus they guaranteed the same offer to those taking Autumn exams. Durham is actively paying students to defer because now that cags are being used they are seriously oversubscribed but the government laid down that anyone who met their offers must be offered places at the first (firm) choice if they meet this. Many have taken people through clearing and bow have to find places for those who met their offers once they reverted to cags. Usually there are 25% A*/As at A level this year now CAGS are used it is closer to 40%. The top end unis that many put as aspirational and where many would not have met grades now have leaving them oversubscribed. The International (nonEU) has not dropped off on the way it was originally anticipated.

So the issue is at the top end leaving fewer places available.

Students seem to be returning to uni this weekend so we can now gauge the actual as opposed to estimates of deferrals.

What is your experience?

I am seeing most people going back or starting as planned and only a slight increase on usual deferrals.

It surprised me to learn that international students are also returning. I don't know if anyone here knows roughly how many? I work in some apartment blocks in our city centres which are traditionally tenanted by overseas students and know that many have moved back and are in
quarantine

I expect, when the dust settles, the very top end of universities may well have fewer places on offer. It may also be that there will be huge numbers of courses in clearing, as usual. Some students may well not get their aspirational choices but the students will shake down to the other HE providers. Plenty of these are excellent.

Every student already gets significant support from the government via the loans system which in very many cases, doesn’t get paid back. HE is no different to other job sectors in terms of government support. They are businesses. Life for nearly every business is tough right now.

Difficult to see how with all the additional students taken on this year after CAGs were awarded, the best universities won't be short on places. It's now more about that than deferrals.