Covid19: The 21 universities at most financial risk

[ResultsDayWorries]

www.frontier-economics.com/uk/en/news-and-articles/articles/article-i7594-covid-19-the-21-universities-most-at-risk/

I've named changed for this so I can specify the uni's I'm worried about and hopefully seek reassurance.
A relative sent this article which has BOTH of my son's uni choices as potentially in financial trouble thanks to over-stretching themselves and now facing the fallout from Covid! He has Leicester as his firm choice (and where he'll most likely to going as the offer he holds should be very achievable for him) and Reading as his insurance. Should we be trying to secure an alternative place elsewhere in clearing rather than commit to either of these places? I feel quite panicky with such short notice and having visited both L and R he was happy with them in his mind.
This is going to effect a lot of people as there are some highly regarded and very popular universities on that list.

Personally I wouldn't worry. Two universities that I personally know whose management are very worried aren't even listed!

They've taken a too simplistic view of what the key measures are - and whilst I agree reserves are an important metric for example, the USS required a major revaluation of some uni's liabilities which means the latest set of figures don't tell the full story, they're an outlier in a lot of ways.

The story is more nuanced than the article says. They mention reliance on overseas recruitment, but don't include metrics. Nor on home recruitment which is where most income comes from.

In other words don't worry!

Oh jeez there are some quite good ones in there

I went to Leicester back in the day. Sad to see it on this list! Reading was also on my UCCA form. I had heard Reading was potentially in difficulties. Very, very surprised to see Nottingham on there!

Isn’t this list just guesswork on behalf of that publication, though? And would the government really let 21 universities go under? There’s no clear ranking apart from the number of factors, either.

Hi OP the link doesn't work, could you tell me if Bolton or Liverpool John Moores are on there?

Here's the table from the article

It would be sheer madness to let a recognised medical school in the United Kingdom go under (St George's). I believe there would be government intervention if this were to become a possibility.

No London Met or SOAS which are normally trotted out in these articles?

The university where I work is on the list. Looking at the very simplistic formula they have used I don't completely believe this list.

Also it is a dangerous game to play publishing this list and could become a self fulfilling prophecy as students avoid the unis listed and they fold due to that.

There are lots of these lists because it is a game with numbers that anyone can play. But that is all it is. It is not only completely context-free, but weight your data differently, use or discard different measures and you come up with a completely different list.

Just looking across three of these lists, there are only 3 universities in the Frontier Economics 21 that also appear in the 'most at risk' category on both of the other two lists. And 7 don't appear in the 'most at risk' category in either of the other two lists.

I agree the formula is simplistic.

Reading U is interesting. They had to close their new campus in Southern Malaysia very early on, in line with both Malaysia, and nearby Singapore's prompt response to Covid 19. Both countries appear to have a "good pandemic", at least so far, and the campus will be reopening for the new academic year.

If I were a SE Asian student looking to study in the UK, I might ditch my KCL place and, depending on the options to later transfer to the UK, opt for starting in Johore Baru.

So yes the University, like all businesses, might appear to be stretched if they made major investments just before lock down, but in this case it might prove a sound decision.

Ditto SGUL. I suspect they have virtually no assets. Their teaching is delivered in a hospital presumably using hospital facilities, so don't need the sort of buffer the article is looking for. They have strong demand for their courses, so as long as revenue is greater than costs, they should should be at no more risk than they were before lockdown - and indeed less than many as they don't have a large dependence on overseas students, and some of their staffing will be in the form of Clinical Teaching Fellows etc who will essentially be borrowed from the hospital, as opposed to more standard Universities with tenured staff.

it is a dangerous game to play publishing this list and could become a self fulfilling prophecy as students avoid the unis listed and they fold due to that

I was already worried about the extended Covid lockdown in the city of Leicester as that's not exactly good PR for the university

No SOAS! And it is acknowledged to be in difficulties, sadly. I think I’d be taking this list with a large pinch of salt.

It would be sheer madness to let a recognised medical school in the United Kingdom go under (St George's).

Leicester Medical School, however, one might happily throw to the wolves along with Nottingham and Swansea?

MarchingFrogs I think Bangor has medical students too.

I think Bangor has medical students too.

So it does (a GEM course).

I'm very surprised the uni I work for isn't on the list, but maybe that's because its woes predate covid

Marching, even if a University closed some functions would remain. It’s a bit like a company going bankrupt and the profitable bits are sold off.

Which is why having SGUL on the list is odd. It’s effectively a standalone medical/healthcare school. Its metrics will be different, which is why it may have been captured by the over simple analysis.

I don’t see any medical schools being closed unless the Government decides it wants to train fewer doctors. And even then, the very newest ones might be more vulnerable.

Ditto SOAS. It has several unique departments and has a role beyond teaching UGs. Employers will use them for language teaching, and they have a research role. Even if SOAS were to fold, someone, probably UCL, would take over some functions in the way that SSEES is now the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies.