2020 A Level Results and moderation

[ClarasZoo]

My son is awaiting the result of one A level this year. He is predicted an A and has had A exams/assessments throughout the year. Following on from the thread on the Scottish Highers disasters I am starting to worry about the results, both for him and for two family friends in the year above.

Can anyone who understands the system better than me please advise/reassure me?
So, the first example is a child who needs an A grade in one particular subject to go to the uni they want. That child is predicted an A/B. there are 5 pupils doing that subject at his school. Last year one got a B, two got Cs and two got Ds. the two years before were similar. This year, for some reason, it is a clever cohort of 6. 5 are predicted A stars and one A(friend's son). Based off previous years, there is only one B, 2 Cs and 2 Ds to hand out - can that be right? In that case, my friend's son is going to get a D, even though he should get an A/B. Please tell me this is not how it works, although looking at the press it does seem to be.
My other example is a girl who needs an A star in Italian A level. She is Italian so would breeze an A star. However, her school has never got more than a C in Italian. So will she get a C? That CAN"T be right?!
My son's grade is clearly also in doubt, if the school does not have sufficient to "hand out", isn't it?

Meaning you are then the one to get bumped down to a 5? The other 9 x 6s are safe

It depends how many have been bumped down into that grade from grade 7 as well, as they then form the higher part of the rankings.

OP - I worry about this - my DS2 is awaiting GCSE results . He is at a local comprehensive school and normally they have pretty poor results. This year they have a super clever year. There is one girl right at the top who was no doubt predicted 9’s across the board. Then below her probably around 5 more pupils this year who might get a 9. I don’t know where my DS will be ranked. I reckon if he actually had taken the exams he would have achieved a few 9’s, some 8’s and 7’s. But based on the last few years I think that some top pupils will be downgraded which is a shame. I don’t think my DS will bother to retake in the Autumn , he’ll just carry on with A-Levels at college.

GaraMedour - if his y11 is significantly different to other y11s the school has had then the school will be able to take advantage of the new ground for appeal mentioned above.

yes as Hoghyni says it will depend whether the over estimation is at that grade level only or across all levels as it will start bumping down from the top. However one sample I have seen shows that there wwere A*s down to As and As down to Bs but because they had underestimated the Bs none of the Bs were bumped down. This was not an actual set of results I hasten to add but a sampling set that was used as an example.

People need to just wait and see what they get, they may be presently surprised

I hope you’re right...i feel sick thinking about it 🤢

I do hope so - I will keep my fingers crossed.

Devils advocate...

If a school has only ever achieved Cs as the highest grade or normally gets b-ds then the centre assessment of an A* would be questionable because the teachers are not used to awarding those grades so you could argue their grading decisions are not as informed as others. Regardless of the learners actual ability there is not any teacher history to confirm that grading profile as firm grade and effective application of the mark scheme
(This assumes consistent staffing over the years).

Secondly, what were the predicted grades on previous years compared to actual achieved grades? That is a much much greater indication of whether the CAG is reliable...Since aos don't routinely hold that it makes that cag much more volatile to use.

It seems convenient that there are so many bright cohorts this year...I wonder if the KS2 sats from this year group reflect that or the GCSEs from 2 years ago.

Returning from devils advocate
Ofqual have relaxed the appeal rules this week so in both of these scenarios, there may be scope to appeal the grade awarded as there would be a lot of periodic assessment evidence available to support the claim of a*

No idea why I bolded all of that text - apologies!

My other example is a girl who needs an A star in Italian A level. She is Italian so would breeze an A star.

Brighton College list Chinese A level for native speakers on their website - only 2 students were awarded an A* last year - with 11 students scoring an A.

Please could someone clarify how it works with looking at the candidates previous results. In the case of A level would they be looking at a projection from GCSE results eg. if a student got a 7 at GCSE they might be aiming for a B at A level or would they look at A/S levels and mock results for the background. So if someone had got a 7 at GCSE but a D in their mock they would be awarded a D?
Originally I thought they were looking at the prior attainment of the year group as a whole rather than individual students but as I understand it now they are looking at the usual results of the school and the individual student's past record.

When it comes to “predicted grades” there are massive variations between schools, particularly at GCSE. For instance, DS’ friend goes to a very large state school that predicted him and loads of others 9s at GCSE, but in the event, the highest grade in the school was an 8 and this friend who was the hailed top student and was confident he was going to get all 9s got 6s and the odd 7. You wonder what they’re doing predicting 9s at GCSE because obviously it breeds complacency in the students, which is the last thing they need in the run up to GCSE. Also, last year, it was the first year of 9s across all subjects and I can’t see how any of the teachers knew the proportions that would get the 9s.

Meanwhile, in very full-on schools where half the students did achieve 9s last summer and 95% of grades were 9-7 (I have a DS in one of these), nobody was predicted a 9. It just crashes didn’t happen. They were predicted 7 or 7/8 at most, so that nobody sat back on their laurels. So I can see that the moderators have a hard job. I’m sure the same must happen at A-level too.

Not too sure what ‘very full -on schools ‘ are but the implication is clearly not ‘very large state schools’. My daughter is at a non selective state school in one of the most deprived regions in the country. She secured 2 A*s in year 10 and 8 grade 9s and a grade 8 in year 11 and has secured an offer at Oxford which her teachers had no doubt she would meet. It appears there is now a very real risk that she will not gain her place based solely on the results of previous cohorts at her school. She is apparently expected to accept this on the basis that there will always be ‘winners and losers’ . She would not be a ‘loser’ based on anything she has personally failed to achieve. The system which has been adopted will undoubtedly ensure that those who are most likely to be disadvantaged are the highly achieving children in lower achieving schools. Had she gone to a ‘full on’ school for sixth form she would now be in an entirely different position. How can this be fair ?

I’ll be honest

If i thought the college’s previous record would be used to work out my daughters A level grades I wouldn’t have sent her to a ‘low Performing’ college

@user1471448866 her school would be able to appeal her results in that case. If you have a look at this blog it makes it clear that they are allowing appeals in the case of outlier students for whom the moderation algorithm doesn’t work.

ofqual.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/06/fairness-in-awarding/

This is why, in my opinion , the exams should have gone ahead and in particular coursework should have been marked and moderated. At least then there would have been a common starting point .

Ofqual seem to be changing the rules in terms of appeals as they go along (or should I say after they have seen the backlash from both IB and the Scottish results).

However, the appeals process is limited and the results of the appeal may not be back until November! So forget about this years University places.

Also the appeal results will not be back before the ‘resits ‘ in fact the entry date I think is4th Sept so you will have to do the resit To be sure or redo year 13

Being Italian doesn't guarantee an A grade at a level Italian. It s more than just being able to speak Italian.

All you can do is wait and see .
If ot isn't what they need then call the uni / go to clearing / speak to the school

user1471448866 Oxford has made it clear that they will be looking carefully at any students who have missed their offer before Thursday. They hold a lot more data on your DD than other universities would from the admission tests & interviews. I understand that they may speak to schools for clarification of CAGs if they have concerns. (Also waiting nervously for Oxbridge).

@Hoghgyni is correct, I understand Cambridge will also look at Dcs results from disadvantaged schools.

Surely in a robust standisation program this should not need to happen and the onus should not be on Universities to correct a flawed system where lots of DC will/could have unfairly missed their University offers.

I'm a bit fed up of seeing posts from the parents of DC at superselective schools who keep telling posters to ignore the press who have been instrumental in getting the appeals system reviewed. This attitude comes over as 'I'm alright, Jack'.

I’m definitely not trying to belittle anyone’s concerns, but as Hoghgyni says, Oxford will definitely look very carefully at a missed grade (or two), particularly for those coming from less advantaged schools with more variable results, and one of the advantages of having applied there is that they will have other data from interviews, etc. Plus, Oxford don’t over-offer much, so chances are they can be very flexible in these circumstances. Cambridge do over-offer by quite a lot for some courses, but at least they are offering guaranteed deferred places for next year pending success in the “retakes.”

If there’s any more disruption to schools in the coming year it may end up being teacher assessment / moderation next summer too and, to be honest, I have one doing GCSEs then and one doing A-levels and I wouldn’t mind this.

Anyway, I wish everyone the best of luck...

Realistically I have some doubts whether the Autumn exams will go ahead. What happens if an area is locked down?

It's much better to have a fully encompassing appeal system including individual appeals because there maybe just the one DC who is unfairly downgraded in a subject cohort of more than 15. Appeals also need to be free for all so everyone is on a level playing field.

I attended an OCR/JCQ course on appeals yesterday. Appeals can be submitted from 13 August so immediately , the final date is 17 September. However although the exam boards will have 42 calendar days to decide the appeal the school will have the option to flag the appeal staying that a university place depends on outcome and they will do their best to expedite/deal with such appeals.

Appeal fees are not yet publishes but OCR have said there is one flat fee per appeal whether that covers one student or a group of students so I am assuming this may be something the school is prepared to bear unless you need to appeal swiftly as above to get a uni decision.

The reality is if schools are sensible on an overall basis with what their school would realistically get then the odd A* would be allowed through as long as the rest of the results are in line with the historic/prior cohort/national data adjustments.

And by very full on schools, I obviously mean the very selective ones in the state or independent sectors. Schools where there might be 20 applicants for every place at 11 plus and there’s a whole industry around getting kids in and all the neurosis; high-pressure and skewed expectations that go with it.

I don’t mean independent schools per se because some obviously are relatively laid-back and their USP is all about the “rounded” child rather than exam results and the entry requirements reflect this. Independent schools obviously vary as much as those in the state sector. There are some that are amazing for the right child; while for others, you wonder how they stay open. I’m sure there will be some interesting results coming out of the independent sector too because some of these schools seem to hold onto certain teachers who, quite frankly, get away for too long with poor / outdated / eccentric practice to the extent they probably wouldn’t get a job in the state sector - so god knows what they would predict or how they would rank students.

I would expect that most appeals will come from DC who have lost their Uni offer so most will be urgent. Will Universities hold places open whilst an appeal takes place? Realistically schools will not be in a position to lodge appeals until September at the earliest given staff are on holiday.