A Level GCSE update

[Oneteen]

www.bbc.com/news/education-53492283... Finally good news for the small cohorts.

www.gov.uk/government/news/ofqual-summer-symposium-2020

I think I am reassured but then I got to the bit that said 'a substantial number of students will have one subject adjusted. DS needs 2 xA out of 3. He was on track for 3 A but his 2 required A* are in specified subjects. School had excellent evidence including external exams but it's still a worry

HuaShan - apparently the suggestion is that the overestimation is at the B down to C level at A level and 4 down to 3 level at gcse and shouldn't really affect top end students. Indeed nationally they have factored in 2% more A levels at A*/A.

There is a table on Ofqual..

6% A*s over estimated
12 % As
13% Bs

Etc

Not great but hopefully readable

Thanks both, that is quite reassuring

Unfortunately that doesn’t mean 6% of As overestimated, it means ~40% of As overestimated. CAGs have given 13.8% of all grades an A when only 7.8 (compared to 2019) should have got them, so 6 out of 13.8 were overestimated which is around 40%. So that 40% of A grades will drop down to an A.

The A grades are also overestimated. With the 6% from A* dropped down to an A that takes up 6 of the 17.7% to be allocated so only 11.7% left for the 24% of CAG A grades to have, so ~ 12/24 will drop down to a B or 50% of them.

The B grades are also overestimated. With the 12% from A dropped down to a B, that takes up 12 of the 26% to be allocated so only 14% is left for the 27% of CAG B grades to have so ~ 13/27 will drop down to a C so 48% of them. Then similarly for the C grades etc, though in a lower proportion.

The overestimating by schools is worse than the % figures seem to suggest, sadly.

Millicent - so you are saying that teacher assessment has led to a 40% over-estimation for A* grades. That’s a huge over-estimation.

In normal times grades are wildly overestimated for university application purposes, and of course exams can go pear-shaped. That is why universities over-offer, knowing that predicted grades are what might be achieved with all the stars aligned for many candidates.

If in any normal year you compared predictions vs outcomes there would be a big difference.

That analysis is assuming the proportions will follow the 2019 numbers, but they have already said they will be a bit more lenient. In that case the worst downgrading will be from B to C at a little under 50%.

That means the words, ‘most won’t drop down’ is accurate as just over 50% won’t drop. ‘A substantial number will drop down by one grade’ means between 40 and 48% will.

@10km, yes, that’s what the figures published by Ofqual are showing. If 7.8% of all grades were an A in 2019 and CAGs gave 13.8% an A that’s a huge increase. Ofqual have said they will be slightly more lenient than in 2019, but that will only make a small difference. This is why teachers need to be moderated. That can’t help but be over optimistic. It would make the results this year meaningless if they weren’t moderated.

Slightly clearer photo

In student numbers it works out at 44735 based on overall entry of 745585 will most likely loose the A* CAGs....

Sorry I should have added - I quoted 6 percent etc because 44735/745585 is I believe 6%..

I probably should have qualified that the percentage figures I quoted as over estimations was of the total number of applicants..

Thank you for posting the clearer picture..

There were also notes about smaller cohorts on the original presentation which are hidden now... So we will see whether they honour what was stated in the notes (which I did take a screenshot of)

The small cohort has been incorporated into the revised guidance unless they have re-revised it!!!

Not sure... These were specific notes that
have been removed as to how they had treated small cohorts on those screen presentations.

We will see...

p11 of the Guidance - small cohort info is still there