Which Universities are most at risk financially, post-COVID?

[ComeBy]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53280965

Any views on which establishments are most at risk?

Should the Government look at the provision overall and what the UK sector needs and intervene to support and cull, saving the educationally, strategically and financially most important, rather than leaving it to a survival of the fittest or Devil take the hindmost?

It seems very unfair to have made that announcement today, leaving our kids potentially backing an old nag in the race to a place.

They have said that it's the ones at the bottom of the league tables most at risk. My guess is that London Met is on there for definite.

I'd like to know this, too.

There was some indication that conservatoires might struggle - lots of postgrads and international students. One would hope the new arts funding might include them.

I work in this sector. To be honest, I'm surprised it's as low as 13. Universities in the Russell Group are, as a rule, quite well sheltered, but even then we are facing massive, massive losses.

If they announce which ones are struggling, they’ll definitely close because students will avoid. I don’t blame the students but that’s why the list hasn’t been released.

If you read the article it suggests there will be no bailouts as it would encourage others not to manage their finances properly and expect bailouts too.

'Amusingly', I posted this on the FB page WIWIKAU, and, after 6 comments, 'an admin turned off comments'.

Admittedly, there are a lot of posters on there whose DC are studying what may very well amount to worthless degrees, thus possibly attend unis they probably suspect are on that list.

as per this BBC article

Disclaimer: My own DS is having to head to uni in Sept to do a course that really ought be taught via day/block release from an accredited employer. But one who know is quite happy for the youngsters to pay for all their own training.

It has also been pondered whether there might be some RG unis who have relied far too heavily on overseas students, and have over-capitalised on flash facilities to tempt them in...

But this is what happens when you marketise university.

If you read the IFS article and appendices in which it classifies the universities it is not hard to work out roughly which institutions are at risk .

www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14919

Several on the south coast have been at risk for years.

Hogh - which ones?!

Pease do you mean the 23 rated as "Q4 (lowest ranked)" ?

You should be able to find the annual accounts online for most unis I would have thought. I’ve found the ones for ds’s uni & although on paper they show they are ok overall, if you know what you are looking at, it is not quite so rosy.

Those which used to be HE colleges rather than unversities or polytechnics. Southampton, Bournemouth & Portsmouth are solid, but Solent, Winchester and Chichester would spring to mind.

It’s not just Q4 but the level of dependence on overseas students plus gearing and crucially pension deficits. Traditionally the new universities , ex teacher training colleges etc have escaped the deficit problems as many of their lecturers are in in TPS ( teachers pension scheme ) rather than the USS but the recent hike in contributions for the TPS is hitting them hard too.

The health of the pre COVID balance sheet is important as well as this will determine their ability to continue to borrow

@Peaseblossom22 you seem to know a lot on this subject. How does UAL seem? Sorry if that's a stupid question but my son is set to start there and London is so expensive, we need to be sure about what we're doing

They have said that it's the ones at the bottom of the league tables most at risk

Not really ; 'they' have also said that the ones that take a lot of overseas students are at risk which includes some very topnotch institutions.

Not really ; 'they' have also said that the ones that take a lot of overseas students are at risk which includes some very topnotch institutions.

Most of the very 'topnotch' institutions have bigger reserves and, perhaps, more earning potential, so are less likely to be affected. I posted this graph on another similar thread on here.

Source: www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/BN300-Will-universities-need-bailout-survive-COVID-19-crisis-1.pdf

@GalesThisMorning UAL looks to be in a relatively good position. It is Q2 in the IFS analysis and an alternative analysis I have seen puts it at 140th most risky out of 178 institutions (178th being least risky).

It has a high risk marker over the proportion of its income that comes from international students, but otherwise looks ok. It is a bit difficult to assess the arts institutions because they tend to be relatively asset rich, but there are questions about how readily they could liquidate these assets or borrow against them.

Thank you @Phphion. That's really helpful and I appreciate you answering my question

When i read this post, it made me think of an article done by the tab in april. Because of unis needing international students to help contribute to the uni there is a list of unis that really depend on them. thetab.com/uk/2020/04/06/unis-could-go-bust-if-coronavirus-keeps-international-students-away-experts-warn-151114

Interesting. I’ve never heard of the first two on that most reliant graph.

I think the second one is a private university. Nearly all overseas students and very very wealthy.

It is certainly a frightening list for many London institutions! And the Arts

Doesn't surprise me about LSE but hadn't expected City to be so high up, or Durham?

Always thought Regent's College is American?