How many students will be allowed to defer university ?

[IrmaFayLear]

Obviously no clear-cut answer possible at the moment, but how would this work if thousands asked to defer, or withdrew in order to apply again next year? Presumably grades will be up (as they will be a)predicted - so often aspirational and b) matching university asked-for grades) so current yr 13s would be applying in the privileged postion of having grades in hand.

On the TSR loads of kids are saying they won't go to university as planned if their experience is going to be crap (eg no social interaction, or if it's online). What if 50% of 2020 starters say they want to go next year instead? Obviously the year 12s would then defer and push on the problem ad infinitum...

Isn't it the case that 2000 was a bumper year for births - so they would be starting university in 2019/20 ( and perhaps 21, depending on gap years)

Then a bit of a decline? Or have I totally misremembered?

Because deferring from a peak year might have an effect of flattening the demographic curve.

And of course, it's a case of whether applicants are looking at the first term or the whole length of the course. Plus (if university doesn't defer) whether they want to go through applications again, which I guess might be less likely for a course someone really wants to be on

No this is actually a low birth year

Presumably grades will be up (as they will be a)predicted - so often aspirational and b) matching university asked-for grades)

I don't think grades will be up will they? That's why teachers are ranking the kids and they
are using previous years grades as a guide.

It's going to be so tricky if all the kids defer and I feel sorry for the current year 12s.
My Dd is hoping to go in the autumn (if she gets the grades!), even if it's online for a couple of months it's got to be better than hanging around for another year.

It is a very low birth year this intake year. We don't see a significant rise until 2022/2023. I feel sorry for the next 2 years of intake. Do you gamble on going this year and maybe just having a virtual experience for at least a few months? Or do you gamble on next year and there may not be enough places to go around?

As someone who works in HE if we don't have a decent intake this year it will finish off some unis. Which will then make competition even harder for next year!

If it was my child applying I would go for this year I think.

If universities are reading the runes and think first years wont go ( and some 2nd yrs may drop out) if its online only, they will i assume make huge efforts to start up ‘properly’ in september. Halls, shared kitchens - given the age/risk profile of 18-23 yr olds - may be considered an acceptable risk by then? Whereas Delaying ‘proper term’ to january seems like it coincides with winter flu, doesnt it?

On the other hand what do the deferrers plan to do - work may be hard to come by, travel still restricted? Is there a good alternative to going to university this september? (Though not running up a bill for £9k for online only may sound like a good alternative, i do see)

And, finally, who can say what will be happening by september 2021? We are in a somewhat unpredictable world!

(Sorry this post repeats what ive said on other similar threads - repetitive i know, but i do find the discussion interesting.)

I have a year 12 and we’ve had this discussion

They need to ‘look’ at universities and start preparing applications etc

I have no idea how it’s going to work with year 13 deferring, I would also assume there will be a lack of international students coming as apprentice won’t want them to be that far away, assuming they are able to travel, or if they can, they might get stranded for a second lockdown.

I think the lack of international students alone will affect the University’s more

The current estimate for deferrals is 1 in 6, I believe, but I think this will change once the grades are out and questions about what the provision will be are answered.

I'm not sure how the 1 in 6 figure compares to a normal year ...

The moderation will ensure grades are in line with the usual averages.

But I think numbers will want to retake, and some will want to defer anyway, and that is a problem.

DS was planning a 2021 start as he had planned a year out to compete at his sport , earn some money and then travel.

Hes decided to start this year as none of the above are likely to happen next year and rather than idle away a year, he's planning a year out when he finishes his degree.

I know I keep saying this but if very large numbers of students defer and their places aren't filled, many universities will go bankrupt and won't exist for 2021 entry. And the students who lose their current courses when that happens will be looking for other universities to transfer to.

interesting point sir toby. I imagine there might be some mergers as well, and that may not be a bad thing if they can be managed in the interests of students.

But i assume/ hope that they’re taking into account the likely impact on students’ choices when planning what to do in september, and will do their best to start ‘properly’ rather than online. I could even see a case for bringing forward start dates to early september so that travel, meeting new people etc, happens well before winter flu.

Would be interesting to know the government’s view - the idea of 1.5mn 18-21 yr olds not starting or continuing university in september, when unemployment is already x, is one that requires careful consideration.

After offers have been made and accepted isn't it up to the uni to agree to a request to defer? They may call students' bluffs and say ok if you want to come in 2021 you can reapply. Which places students in a tricky position bc frankly what sort of gap year will be possible? If they want to travel, well, that's a bit dicey until we have a vaccine. Work? Well the economy will at best be making a slow recovery.

I have stayed away from mumsnet for a bit as it was making me so anxious . Ds always wanted to defer but was advised by the university to apply for next year and then call and ask for a deferral , now that’s out 🙁on the other hand can’t travel so maybe best to get on with it . Feeling so sorry for them

Its no different than any other school. Why should universities be closed when all primary/secondary schools will be reopening?

I expect everything to start back up in September.

I have one DC planning to still start in September, if its online to begin with then so be it. We think it's better to start and deal with the restrictions then defer for a year and possibly not get a place at all. DC has a place already lined up so they don't want to lose that.

It does seem a huge shame for them though that they won't get the same experience as all other years have

Its no different than any other school. Why should universities be closed when all primary/secondary schools will be reopening?

A few reasons:
It's much more possible to teach online, fully (though not quite as possible as many think, especially where you haven't already done this for years like the OU, and you can't have in-person top-ups, like the OU, or where you have a practical subject like Music, Dance or STEM).

Young adults are more affected by CV than primary school aged children (though this argument applies to secondary school pupils too).

The economy isn't affected by parents of teenagers not being able to work (as not sending your child to university doesn't affect your ability to work).

Also schools are not residential

“schools are not residential”

Many of them are residential.

“It's much more possible to teach online, fully”

Not really. Many countries have online secondary school options. It’s not just Universities that offer distance learning

“Young adults are more affected by CV than primary school aged children”
Yes, but the overall risk is still insignificant

“The economy isn't affected by parents of teenagers not being able to work”
But the economy IS affected by the professors not being able to work. Students are consumers whether children or adults. Whether their parents can or cannot work is separate. Also, in the UK because you have such high tuition fees, the lack of students also means universities collapsing which directly affects the economy.

There was an over-supply of university places this year due to low birth rate and Brexit putting off foreign students. But why on earth will students defer? What will they do? Just sit at home like lockdown?
There's hardly likely to be any jobs for them and limited chances to travel. Surely any uni experience will be better than just sitting at home with Mum and Dad?

If social distancing rules are sufficient rigorous to send teacging online then kids won't be able to go out and mix socially with their friends will they.

And by the way, grades won't be bumper this year. The government and OFQUAL have made that very clear.

I'd be extremely surprised if universities agreed to many deferrals this year. Much more likely to tell students to reapply next year when, as pp said, they will be competing with the current year 12s for fewer places as, barring an enormous government bailout, some universities are going to go under. I really feel for the students in both year groups.

On the social distancing - I assume the problem is that school kids are mostly quite localised, geographically, whereas University students come from across the country (if not the world this year). It's like the bloody first winter at nursery where they all get everything, but with less Calpol and more vodka. I don't think many universities are planning for a scenario where they're allowed to open as usual in the autumn.

Good point about the economy - if 0.5mn 18 yr olds decided not to start University after all, there would not be just the financial hit to universities, but also a substantial effect on consumption. Students are not the biggest spenders but they do support local economies, and the important point is that it’s partially on borrowed money (maintenance loans). If they stay at home and are unemployed, they will spend much less i would have thought - though admittedly some of the ‘non-expenditure’ will be on rent, which perhaps only has an impact on landlords (whether university or private halls).
What do the universities think current students and yr 13s will do if they dont start ‘properly’ in september but just start online? Presumably they are doing some market research on this?

I think there would be a case for requiring any overseas student arrivals to quarantine for 14 days - government has suggested this may be a general policy anyway, though who knows?
yes there is an issue about students coming together from all over the country as well, but harder to see what you do about that. As others (and i!) have said that is not a high risk age group, though. I wonder if some students will prefer to stay local anyway - it may feel ‘safer’. So perhaps there will be an increase in students opting for their ‘home’ university?