Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

Mums and spreadsheets: I can relate. Back when DS was picking his college (doesn't that feel a lifetime ago?) I made a spreadsheet for him and he actually used it. Was v proud.

I feel so sorry for the DC who have reason to think that moderation will be particularly unfair to them. I wonder whether it would have been better for each exam centre to have been given an Ofqual / exam board liaison person to help to thrash these types of things out.

Oxford have added to their ‘information for offer holders’ page. I was hoping that, like Cambridge, they would honour 2020 offers for 2021 (subject to results gained in autumn exams), but alas this is not happening. They use the dreaded phrase ‘you are welcome to reapply’.

They also say that they will bear in mind this year’s unusual circumstances when judging candidates, presumably those who have just missed their offer. Ah well, only two weeks until we know how our children have done.

No surprises there then.

I must admit I feel quite cheated. What was the point of their previous statement, that they were waiting for assurance that autumn resits were for all subjects and available to all? Yes and yes, but they haven’t followed Cambridge’s lead (stated months ago, in April) and allowed offers to stand for next year.

Dare we hope that this means they will be lenient to those who miss their offers?

My guess: they will be lenient to those who miss their offers through standardisation, particularly if the offeree is from a low-performing school. I guess they'll be less lenient to those whose school assessments were below their offers (and they should be able to make the distinction by speaking to the school). I wonder how many people are in the latter camp? We've talked about this before and there were differing opinions on whether schools would (against the rules) take extra care that their Oxbridge offerees met their offers.

That would be sensible SnapSnapDragon. It seems that most parents on this thread are worried about moderation and not about teacher-given grades, so let’s hope you’re right.

I would expect Oxford to be most lenient to those they scored the most highly at interview and who scored the best in the aptitude tests, regardless of school.

DD missed the boat to ask for her aptitude test score.

So did my son. It’s awful to think of them still being judged though, after all that long process that got them an offer!

My guess: they will be lenient to those who miss their offers through standardisation, particularly if the offeree is from a low-performing school

I knew I'd heard / read something about this.

Samina Khan, director of admissions at Oxford, said students who dropped a grade or two below their offer would still be admitted.

Decisions on each student who fails to meet an offer will be made before results are published on August 13. The university will also look at factors including the school's region and the candidate's postcode.

Khan told The Times:'Despite these unusual circumstances because of Covid-19, we will recognise the academic potential of students who are under-represented at Oxford, who tend to be students from poorer backgrounds.'

'We want to be flexible with students who have had a rough ride this year ... (and) will apply a degree of clemency.'
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8561347/Oxford-accept-brilliant-pupils-struggling-schools-fail-expected-grades.html

(My original source is unlikely to have been the DM, but it was the first place that came up when I searched just now. Also, it'snot behind a paywall, unlike the original piece on The Tmes).

As long as they have made up their mind by 8am on 13th. Dithering over a decision would be so cruel.

The meetings take place before results day Hoghgyni.

Yes, but it's not until 13th that schools will know whether a student has been awarded a grade lower than the one they submitted, so although I accept Oxford will have made some decisions before then they must also be ready to hear from schools who want to make the case for a student who has missed their offer.

That's what Barnaby Lenon was suggesting a week or two ago, although having just googled, this suggests Cambridge have rejected the idea... inews.co.uk/news/education/a-levels-2020-cambridge-university-teachers-grade-predictions-schools-students-offers-563121

Reading the article it's a little more nuanced - the unis are obviously facing uncertainty and are not going to commit publicly to exactly what they might do in two weeks' time.

TWO WEEKS!

DadDadDad at our school it's always been the case that Oxford makes its decisions on students who have missed their grades before results day but is then open to cases made by the school for those who haven't made it through the college meeting - sometimes successful sometimes not.

This is being discussed on the "Official Cambridge 2020 Applicants Thread" on TSR, and as reported in the article linked by @DadDadDad , Peterhouse Admissions have implied that they will not be taking CAGs into account when considering narrowly missed offers. They have also disclosed that they have received the STEP results already (but not the A-level results yet).

Yes, but it's not until 13th that schools will know whether a student has been awarded a grade lower than the one they submitted

I believe the exam centre receives the results a day or so before they are released to the candidates.

Thanks, goodbye, that's good to know. DS holding Oxford offer is our eldest so I'm a bit unfamiliar with how this might work (and I left teaching over 20 years ago, so my experience there is a bit out-of-date, even if I could remember... ).

This is agony.

It's nice to be able to talk about things here. If I mention my concerns to friends IRL they roll their eyes and say, "Master Snap will be just fine"

I believe the exam centre receives the results a day or so before they are released to the candidates.

I know, but for the sake of making my point, I was assuming that schools are not going to start contacting unis until the student knows the result and has heard the uni's decision, but maybe some schools are more proactive than that.

I am anxious too, but I think we can all take comfort from the wording on Oxford’s webpage. They acknowledge uncertainty caused by covid and say ‘please rest assured that we are committed to limiting any impact this will have on your ability to take up your place’.

They also say they ‘will be taking into consideration the difficult circumstances in which grades have been awarded this year’. It sounds as if they will not ignore the fact that no exams have actually been taken and the grading system is untried and untested.

Given the exhaustive testing and interview process, they may feel they have enough information already to accept offer-holders regardless of this year’s unreliable grades.

@SnapSnapDragon

This is agony.

It's nice to be able to talk about things here. If I mention my concerns to friends IRL they roll their eyes and say, "Master Snap will be just fine"

Agreed. My dd is extremely worried and we've had tears many times. Her dad and I are trying to be breezy and keep extolling the virtues of choice number 2 but the truth is we are all very invested in this.

Unis (including Oxbridge) can approach the schools too once they receive the results on 7 August if they need to, to inform any decisions.

I'm getting the impression that neither Oxford nor Cambridge will be approaching schools much/interested in school opinions?

Cambridge (or Peterhouse at least but presumably its widespread amongst colleges) have stated they won't - with their greater number of offers holders, they are unlikely to have many gaps to fill. However they guarantee the place for next year if exams are successful in autumn.

Oxford colleges, from what I hear in press and from friends (I used to work at one of the larger colleges), who have fewer offer holders, anticipate not filling all the places they're allowed from offer holders who meet their grades. If they're right, they plan to pay more attention to all that data and less to the assigned grades for filling the rest of the places.

DD is Oxford offer holder and currently wishing she applied to Cambridge instead as believes she can perform in exams (mocks went well) and wouldn't mind a year out - and has no idea how she ranks in entrance test/interview. Her plan if it doesn't go well in 13 days is turning down insurance and taking exam for any subjects she needs to, so she's continued studying all summer. She's extremely stressed about it all, which results in bloody mindedness single mindedness.

(namechanged from earlier threads)

Thanks for that, deFleury. I was wondering if there is a different approach between Ox and Cam because the latter makes more offers per place so is nervous about breaching it's DfE limit if it takes everyone (or nearly everyone), whereas Oxford has more wiggle room on this.

My head is telling me it should be fine for DS (and he just seems to be fatalistic that it's all determined and there's nothing he can do), but the anxious waiting is still unpleasant....