Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

DS1 is sad about no matriculation but I'm hoping (if he gets in!) there might be a future event or photo opportunity. I'm sure our youngsters will find a special way to celebrate, they're quite creative like that..

Somewhat reassuring, but there's still a 10% discrepancy between schools' calculated grades and what they will actually get. We just have to hope that the model is accurate enough to make sure that 10% lands in about the right places.

I think it's inevitable that teachers would overshoot compared the statistically expected grade distribution. To give a simplified example...

You have 10 students who you know are on track for a grade B, have shown that they can get a grade B etc, even if they fluffed their mock and got something lower.

But of course statistically, it could be on average 1 of them will mess up in some way and come out with a C (it might not even the student you would rank 10th). Even if you recognise that possibility, as a teacher you are still going to submit a B for all 10 (since drawing lots for one of them randomly to get a C is probably not very professional!)

So, the exam board are expecting 9Bs and 1C, and the teacher says 10Bs, and that looks optimistic to the board, and the 10th-ranked student takes the hit potentially.

That makes a lot of sense @DadDadDad.

I hope the 2% increase in grades is to take care of the high-performing outliers that we’ve talked about on here.

A friend told me about her BIL who is a science teacher in a comprehensive school in the Midlands. Apparently he is very unhappy with the Ofqual plan because it doesn’t sufficiently account for high-performing years. His school doesn’t normally achieve A stars in chemistry; however, this year he thinks that at least 7 and maybe the entire class of 9 would be able to get an A star. I haven’t met this teacher or his students but this feels ridiculous somewhat optimistic to me. Maybe some of this thinking is contributing to the 12% (although, to be fair, I don’t know what he eventually submitted).

Recently DH ran into a teacher at DS’s school and told him he presumed that the school had bumped up the grades on the assumption that all schools would be doing the same. Absolutely not, the teacher said, they played it with a straight bat. I told DH I found this reassuring, but he disagreed and started banging on about game theory so I closed my ears (a useful skill I have developed over the decades).

My kids are very familiar with my matriculation photo - they find my bleached blonde perm funny for some reason. I imagine DS would have liked to recreate it. Hopefully one day...

Actually, @SnapSnapDragon, like your DH, I have worried about the "prisoners' dilemma" side of this - ie it's good for teachers to play the assessment with a straight bat, as long as all the other teachers play it with a straight bat.

But the OfQual approach is primarily to compare each school against a statistically expected outcome for that school, not compare schools against each other, so I'm hoping that any schools which tried the bumping-up trick would be pulled down without any effect on other schools.

@SnapSnapDragon

That makes a lot of sense *@DadDadDad*.

I hope the 2% increase in grades is to take care of the high-performing outliers that we’ve talked about on here.

A friend told me about her BIL who is a science teacher in a comprehensive school in the Midlands. Apparently he is very unhappy with the Ofqual plan because it doesn’t sufficiently account for high-performing years. His school doesn’t normally achieve A stars in chemistry; however, this year he thinks that at least 7 and maybe the entire class of 9 would be able to get an A star. I haven’t met this teacher or his students but this feels ridiculous somewhat optimistic to me. Maybe some of this thinking is contributing to the 12% (although, to be fair, I don’t know what he eventually submitted).

Recently DH ran into a teacher at DS’s school and told him he presumed that the school had bumped up the grades on the assumption that all schools would be doing the same. Absolutely not, the teacher said, they played it with a straight bat. I told DH I found this reassuring, but he disagreed and started banging on about game theory so I closed my ears (a useful skill I have developed over the decades).

If the cohort are much stronger in the subject via prior attainment GCSE's then maybe they will all get the A*? Also very small cohorts are getting their CAG but we do not what is classed as small

Yes, I think it's sensible that the algorithm uses the cohort's GCSE results, and I could easily see that there may be a small number A* candidates in situations like this and I do hope they will be rewarded. It was the whole class that I was sceptical about.

Like @HuaShan's DS DD is planning to self-cater to save money! Although she's apparently getting the maximum loan and some form of bursary so I imagine she could afford to eat in college/out occasionally. She's also still getting furlough pay (a ridiculously high amount this month and next month due to the way it's calculated!) so she's definitely over-cautious.

Re cooking stuff she's not going overboard though - one saucepan, one bigger kind-of-wok with a lid, and then one plate, bowl, and set of cutlery is the current plan. A few bits and pieces (whisk, grater) but other than that it'll just be a small extra bag. She's a pretty good cook, cooks twice a week for us at home.

I found this interview with a former board member of Ofqual encouraging as well.

inews.co.uk/news/education/a-levels-2020-universities-check-teachers-grade-predictions-schools-students-offers-558730

Hopefully if there’s something that looks like an anomaly, the universities will indeed check with teachers.

Thanks, @LadyM0ndegreen , more reassurance.

I was only just saying to DS today that if the school have assessed him A in a subject and the board moderate to a B (slight concern they might as the school's previous results in that subject are not their strongest), then his best avenue would surely be to get the school to speak to Oxford. This article suggests that's worth doing.

Any other DC getting a UCAS promo email about "Your next step: Choose the right accommodation in Cambridge"? It's from The Railyard, which looks perfectly nice, but in Cambridge, you're supposed to live at your college (and I presume it would be lots cheaper than private?). I guess I just worry about any students who don't realise they'll get allocated to college accommodation/maybe overseas students and will pay a nonrefundable deposit /get duped by this?

Yes Fingernail DD keeps getting those and I feel it's pretty irresponsible for UCAS to let third parties market misleading information to prospective students. It would be very easy for an offer-holder to panic into thinking they need to sort accommodation when they don't.

I also complained about a really dodgy interview-preparation advert that they were promoting and got no response, not even an acknowledgement.

My son keeps getting those regarding Oxford accommodation. As you say, pointless and even misleading.

Anglia Ruskin Uni is also in Cambridge and you may simply be getting the promo email from a "Cambridge word" algorithm.

Anglia Ruskin Uni is also in Cambridge and you may simply be getting the promo email from a "Cambridge word" algorithm.

Probably. From the Railyard website:

Stephenson and Telford boast a younger, livelier vibe – just the thing for new freshers who are settling in. Brunel, on the other hand, is made up of comfortable studio apartments, making it perfect for post-graduates or final year students.

Our shared flats are currently held for 1st year students at Anglia Ruskin University only.

It does go on, though:
However, our range of contemporary studios are available to all students from Anglia Ruskin and Cambridge University during term time.

The all students bit is a bit misleading. (Although might come in handy next year, if Cambridge decides to add the successful candidates from the October exam to the chronological 2021 cohort, rather than taking places from it?).

Do all postgrads at Cambridge have to live in college, though? I only know one, who was married and living miles away at the time and I must admit I have no idea whether they deserted their OH for weeks at a time.

Some Cambrisge colleges only offer 1st and final year accommodation so some Uni of Cambridge students live offsite inbetween whether that is 1or 2 years

From their website:

"Full-time students are required to keep terms of residence in Cambridge in order to be awarded their degrees. In order to keep residence, you need to live (or reside) within the University's precincts during term time.

For undergraduate students, this usually means within 3 miles of Great St. Mary's church, in your college or in other accommodation with your college's permission. If you feel you need permission, you should speak to your college.

For graduate students, 'precincts' are normally considered as the 10 mile radius of Great St Mary's church if you are a full-time student. If, however, there are good reasons for this not being possible or convenient, you can apply to live outside this limit."

This year, the university will consider special arrangements for students with increased susceptibility to infectious diseases or with a disability or long-term mental health condition affecting their ability to live in college while social distancing measures are in place: details here

D1 has heard from a friend she made during interview week, she's just got her results (International student) and achieved her offer! D1's happy and excited for her, and starting to get a bit anxious about results day here.

That's very exciting Jules! Some anxiety creeping in here as we get nearer results day too - inevitable.

DS is excited to have received a booklet of Maths problems he is expected to solve over the summer in preparation for starting. I've ordered a (very expensive and probably very heavy) set text too so it is starting to feel more real.

Oh exciting. DS1 has just had to endure a family gathering of lots of elderly relatives who don't really understand what's happening this year. They all think because he has an offer he's definitely going.

Poor lamb had to explain he might be going several times. He doesn't really like talking about it but he was very polite and I was proud of him.

"Has DD heard yet?" is the repeated question around here.

Nice that your DS has had something from his college HuaShan. DS says his college have said they won't be sending anything until after results day!
Not too long to go now. I think unless you have a DC in exam years people don't really know what's going on this year. People say to me "well DS will be alright won't he!" Let's hope so!

DD has heaps of work set and has also been asked to rank her accommodation options (photos of each staircase, rooms within each staircase, details about different bands etc etc).