Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

As I mentioned upthread, it wouldn't be the only reason for deferring but it would probably be a tipping point. DD is a very good dancer and plays netball but she's tailed off her hours in the last few years to really focus on rowing so will do that almost exclusively when she goes to uni I imagine. Her rowing club up here has been allowing them back for single and double sculls, but university rowing isn't usually sculling and is usually fours/eights so she's a bit apprehensive. When I pushed her she looked on their website and they do appear to be running trials so she's going to contact (which it says to do).

@ofteninaspin yes I imagine tennis is one of the most covid-friendly really! Your DS is lucky.

DS will take his clarinet (whichever university he ends up going to) but realises that for the time being, performances will either be recorded from his room (he has done a couple of these with the school orchestra during lockdown) or as a small ensemble widely spaced outside. He decided not to audition for the chapel choir due to the time commitment (there are other things he wants to try) but hopes to sing in the other college choir once they are able to resume.

Pro rugby only started contact training this week with the Premiership resuming on 14 August. Amateur will be a while behind.

Local rugby clubs have started pre-season training this week.

Local rugby clubs have started pre-season training this week.

Local rugby clubs have started pre-season training this week.

4 weeks until results day. I'm not enjoying the wait.

@sandybayley - have local rugby clubs started pre-season training this week? 😆

I’m with you Dadx3. It’s has been such a long wait. I wish the exam boards had stuck to the sniff of a promise that results would be released earlier this year.

DS is handling it much better than I am. Yesterday I asked him how he’s feeling about results. “Good, not worried” was his reply. He feels that the whole thing is out of his hands and if he didn’t make the required grades he’d be surprised and pissed off but would know that it wasn’t anything he did wrong so would just move on. Although he hasn’t been told what grades were submitted by school, quite a few teachers have wished him luck at Oxford so he’s reasonably confident the submitted grades are high enough (and his mock results and class tests all point to this anyway). So, it all hinges on the standardisation algorithm. Like many of you, I am very nervous about this. It will be a relief to finally get the news (if it’s good of course..).

DS is my eldest so I haven’t been through this before as a parent. Maybe it’s always this nerve wracking. I remember when I went through it myself I was very cool and even forgot that A-level results were out, returning from a family holiday to be given the news of my results by a neighbour!

Hi SnapSnapDragon...another one not enjoying the wait! We have been through the wait for A level results before and this year feels far more stressful. Usually it is a two month wait from the end of exams, not five months of suspense after cancelling exams.

My own results day was a non-event as I had (happy days!) a two E offer from Oxford, so I went on holiday and got my results on returning home. It is very different for our children this year.

Like your DS, mine has been wished ‘good luck at Oxford‘ by his teachers so we are sure his submitted grades are fine. Moderation is another thing though. And still no word on whether Oxford will honour 2020 offers through autumn resits...

SnapSnapDragon I'm on my youngest DC, and even so I have concerns - esp about the standardisation algorithm.

I’m incredibly nervous about the standardisation modelling. DS doesn’t go to a top performing school and he is one of only two in his year who have an Oxbridge offer (one Oxford, one Cambridge). He also has small classes so if they’re trying to fit him into ranks and algorithms it doesn’t bode well. Last year, in one of his best subjects, the highest grade anyone received was a B, so even if DS’s predicted grade was A* is it possible it could get moderated down to a B? Perhaps.

You were lucky, Fly, my own results experience for my place to do Maths at Cambridge was the opposite. Got the A level grades fine (was even mildly shocked that I'd also got an A in my "fourth" subject of Geography), but the two STEP results that my offer hinged on were delayed - the school didn't receive them until the Friday!

The hitch was that we were off on a family holiday, so at the appointed time I had to find a public telephone in the middle of Norfolk, and listen while a teacher opened the envelope and read out the result... Nerve-wracking stuff!

(Yes, children, this was a time when email and mobile phones didn't exist for most of us).

DadDadDad, that is why I chose Oxford over Cambridge! The system until the mid 1990s was (very tough) entrance exam in the fourth term of sixth form, interviews in December, and if successful an EE offer usually before Christmas which removed all pressure. Very civilised.

Of course, the other unknown is how Oxbridge might respond to results. I know Cambridge have indicated they will hold open an offer for another year, but I assume generally there is a bit of a "wait-and-see" on whether lots miss their offer. Will the universities fall back on their own assessments? Will they listen to teachers who make the case for their assessed grade (if it is higher)?

If there are many who are similar to LadyM, the universities also might have concerns about how their stats for the intake from "disadvantaged" background will look if they don't make some allowances.

LadyM try not to worry. There is surely a built-in control to cope with A star students in poorly-performing schools. They will not want splashy headlines about students being robbed.

I do share your concerns - my boy has his school’s only Oxbridge offer, the first since 2015. Let’s have faith that even if the system is unfair to them, Oxford will be understanding.

Only two Oxbridge offers for my son's school. We deliberately chose a non-selective school because we liked the more relaxed environment, but I've been second guessing that decision recently.

I think there's a very high chance DD won't make her grade. But I'm feeling fairly positive about her 2nd offer.

The main concern is that it will cost her FAR more money than Oxbridge. I've told her she'll have to earn the money, but it's not sinking in.

What makes you think she will miss her offer Paragraff? Have you had some kind of hint from her school that they didn't allocate the grades? It's such an unknown at the moment, I'm not sure if any of us can be fairly certain about anything.

DS's insurance choice is Imperial which would be considerably more expensive than Oxford I think.

It's strange isn't it? Most people assume the Oxbridge is expensive but DS1 will be so much better off at Oxford than he would be at his insurance of Durham. Cheaper living costs in college, generous grants for things like books and closer to home so less on travel (although I suspect he'll not come home much).

Let's just say that there was a lot of work still to be done when lockdown started.

@Paragraff - maybe there was work to do but she must have been on track if her predicted grades secured her an offer?

The school can predict what they think she'd have got if she'd sat the exam and will have seen what happens when students raise their game in the final stretch.

Letter from school today outlining procedures for results day .

I'd assumed D1 would check Track before going into school, but she says she might go into school first...!