Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

Oh Lordy I think there is going to be absolute chaos

DS has finished his A-level work and is doing enrichment / university prep work in maths, physics and chemistry. If he doesn't get the required grades for his offer and goes to insurance choice (or even through Clearing) then the maths & physics work will still be relevant. He is reading New Scientist regularly and watching some online lectures too.

Did none of your DC take IB?

No but some of DS1's cohort did IB and seem to have confirmed their places. DS1 is very jealous that the waiting is over for them.

Chopc do any state schools even offer it? I always assumed that you had to pay for the privilege.

Sandy I've quickly worked out the days/weeks left. I think your DS has a good point, there is a long wait still.

@hoghyni
DD's state school offers IB

Interesting. I know nowhere locally does. I assumed it was usually in the private sector as it's more portable for going on to study internationally afterwards.

www.ibo.org/programmes/find-an-ib-school/?SearchFields.Region=&SearchFields.Country=GB&SearchFields.Keywords=&SearchFields.Language=&SearchFields.SchoolGender=&SearchFields.ProgrammeDP=true&SearchFields.TypePublic=true

24 state schools offering the IB Diploma.

I'm getting a bit twitchy about the A level results 😬. D1 has heard lots of horror stories about the IB grades.

In the online media, only the TES seems to be reporting anything on this year's IB. (Just registered for free access). Apparently, the grades this year are up overall, but there are also many students (and teachers) unhappy with shock downgrades from what they were expecting.

Like you, @JulesJules, this doesn't help my twitchiness about A level results.

@JulesJules - don't listen to the horror stories. People who have something horrible tend to post. Those who don't have something newsworthy to say don't.

DS1 is a mixed IB / A Level school and was worried when he looked at Reddit etc but then he spoke to his IB friends and everything is as expected.

Actually slightly up on last year so don't worry too much @DadDadDad

@sandybayley - I did say in my post just now that grades are up overall. I read that yesterday and my spirits rose a little.

Then I see today's story from not just those that are a bit disappointed, but teachers saying how the results don't stack up with their previous assessments, and my spirits fall.

Obviously, this is not entirely rational, but I can't help the feeling of twitchiness!

I know. But if I know one thing it is that you are a rational fellow so read everything with your usual scepticism. Who is writing it, what's their bias and what are the facts?

So what will Oxbridge do if a larger number of offer holders than expected don't make their grades? Plus, some international offer holders decide not to come to the UK, because of the virus situation? Do they accept some people who have not made their offers, or do they offer to candidates who were previously turned down? Or do they use Clearing?

Apart from the Cambridge access scheme I think they will happily run with fewer numbers. They don't need to use clearing to get 'bums on seats'

I'm sure that a lot of the colleges need the student fees.

Even the ones that don't will want to keep numbers up, surely? Not getting as many students as they wanted is a failure that you'd expect to see at the least prestigious universities, not the most prestigious.

I would have thought it far more likely that they'd still accept those who've missed their public exam grades but got aptitude test marks and who they liked at interview. They may well decide that this is a year in which to trust their own judgment to an even greater extent than usual.

Missed out the word good before aptitude test marks. You'd hope everyone scored at least 1 :)

I hope they will make a distinction between those who miss grades because the teachers didn't think they would achieve them and those who missed grades because, as someone put it up thread, "computer says no". None of us seem to have much faith in this computer and I imagine (hope?) the Oxbridge admissions tutors will share the same concerns. If there are indeed many downgrades then the colleges will be besieged by angry offer holders and schools. I really hope it won't come to that though.

I agree with the view above, that colleges will trust their aptitude test results and teachers’ judgements rather than grades awarded by a hastily cobbled-together standardising system.

I think there is zero chance that anyone will get in to Oxford who isn’t already holding an offer. The university will let places stand empty rather than change their established methods.

One person in DS's college offer holder group chat took the IB. They got 45, so presumably made their offer.

SnapSnap according to DD's college admissions tutor, universities won't know whether missed grades were due to teacher assessment or standardisation. She asked at an offer-holder's event and this was the answer.

But I agree that the universities will be aware of the issue and will potentially rely on their own aptitude tests and interview performance in case of missed grades. They already know if students are in small classes at lower-performing schools, so I'd hope they are aware that those students' grades appear to be at risk of being disproportionately affected.