Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

Yes exactly, I booked that w/e. I looked on DD's college website for 2019, saw which day of the week they got their freshers in, and booked accordingly. DS4 doing postgrad has more flexibility so DD's was the critical date. Most colleges are Sunday but a number (Turl St and Merton St) stagger arrivals, so that's less easy. The Cambridge DS will have to go on ahead by train and I'll bring his stuff a couple of days later, before circling back to Oxford - that's the only way it could work.

Thanks for that, I'll get onto it!

Thanks Pepermintea. STEP paper 3 is underway upstairs and I have a day off so DD and I can have a relaxing lunch together when it's all over. No idea what she's going to do with herself after today - it's been pretty much solid maths since end of March!

Interesting stuff from Guzel about the evidence for calculated grades. Like others, it's the moderation that worries me, but it's good to know that the guidance allows teachers to take things like success in aptitude tests etc into account, which will of course be applicable to lots of very competitive universities, conservatoires etc etc etc.

Good luck to all those doing step

Ds is getting a well deserved break. Same as chicken he has been working non stop since lock down

Hi could I just ask anyone with DC that have applied to Cambridge - DS has “provisional predicted grades” of A,A,A and an A for EPQ. Is this high enough to apply for a subject at Cambridge that makes standard offers at A*,A,A? Or do their predicted grades need to exceed the standard offers to have a realistic chance of getting to interview?

They have exams in September and the chance to nudge the grades up, but, as things stand - would this be enough or should we not bother? The course he’s applying for is one if the lesser competitive ones when you look at the admissions statistics (if that makes any difference)? Thanks!

3cats sounds like he should absolutely give it a go, assuming he wants to and the course is actually a good match for what he wants to study.

Thankyou. The thing is, the subject he wants to study is one of the ones he has the prediction of an A for. For Cambridge, I would have thought they’d be looking for an A in the subject you want to study? Having said that, the EPQ is in a relevant topic and the subject he does have the A in is kind of relevant (in that they’re both social sciences).
To be honest, I think he can probably bump another subject up to the A in September. But this has just been such a weird term and it’s hard to know what’s going on really. I would have thought most if the applicants will have all three or even four subjects at A? I just don’t want him to put himself through something if he has no chance ...

Hello everyone, a long time since I've posted on here but wishing all those doing STEP all the very best.

Hope everyone is keeping well and your DCs are enjoying the summer. It must be so strange for them, keeping my fingers firmly crossed for good results for them all.

DS has had an encouraging email from his college so keeping my fingers crossed things will start as planned - just looking at hotels although I'm not yet sure of dates. He's been told more information on that will come later but thought I might get organised with a couple of bookings on the days I think might be the ones - and which are fully refundable if I cancel! No doubt there will be no buffet breakfasts!!

3cats it's a tricky balance. Cambridge publish statistics on what grades each year's offer holders actually achieve, which would give him a sense of what the competition is really like. Have a look at www.undergraduate.study.cam.ac.uk/apply/statistics and scroll down to the PDFs at the end of the page. And I'd suggest getting to open days (even if they are online) and listening carefully/asking questions about specific grade requirements.
The bottom line is that the only way to be sure of having a chance is to apply and see what happens. But definitely have four other really good options up your sleeve so that everything is not focused on Cambridge. There are lots of elements to what they are looking for and there's a good chance of at least getting to interview stage with predicted grades that are in the right ball park. But treat it as "let's see how far I can go" rather than making it the be all and end all.
Does that make sense?

JulesJules, freshers are supposed to arrive afternoon of Sunday 4 October, subject to additional advice. I think that’s across all colleges.

@3catsonthebed, just sharing totally anecdotal experience, own DD got the standard offer for her Humanities subject of AAA. In that subject’s group chat there were plenty of others whose offer was above this at AAA and A at EPQ which surprised people. She is at an Indie, I would imagine that the higher than usual offers would be at schools where achievement was high or there were other factors at play. A bit like childbirth though, we remember the awful stories if you see what I mean. Its a standard offer for a reason and your own DC’s circumstances will mean that you have to read it all with a pinch of salt and let them have a go and try to enjoy the ride. Agree with Chicken, look at the stats. Good Luck!

Hope STEP went well for the Mathmos and they can now “relax” !

Flyonawalk it varies with eg Jesus/ Lincoln/ Corpus/ Oriel.

Ah best to wait for individual information then. At least we know which weekend we’re looking at.

There is a statement on Cambridge's web page about arrangements for October. It includes:
"The academic year will start as normal and term dates will not be changed. Michaelmas Term will start on Tuesday 6 October and end on Friday 4 December, although some postgraduate courses may start earlier as previously advertised. New and returning undergraduate and postgraduate students are advised to be flexible in their travel plans at this stage; more advice about arrangements for the start of term will follow in July."

I'm interpreting that as arrivals may well be spread over a longer period than usual, to avoid crowds. So I think booking hotel rooms etc at this point is potentially risky.

I'm certainly not planning a Drop and Go (although DS might have other ideas). I suppose it's possible that there may be a no visitor rule in the college, but there's nothing to stop us meeting him for a meal or a walk.

We have a very long way to travel to get to Oxford but luckily can stay with friends and therefore don't need to book hotels. Sounds like it might be a bit tricky otherwise.

Is anyone else getting nervous about the news that schools have been too generous and will have to be moderated downwards? I guess this was to be expected, but it is still unsettling.

I'm finding this to be a strange time. DS is about to enter his last week of school and I am so sad that we are not able to do the traditional things such as sports day, speech day etc. I'm also sad that we can't get to say goodbye to the teachers, parents and pupils at the school where he has been for the last 11 years. To be honest, I think I'm more sad than he is. I need closure!!

@Guzel, may I add my congratulations to your charge on her offer. That is an amazing achievement. Hopefully she will make her offer but if she misses out I can't imagine that Oxford would want to lose her, and will, I imagine, think very carefully about their decision.

Well I've booked for the Sat. We will have to drive down on Sat and back on Sun, its too far to do in one day.
I'm trying not to look at all the sensational headlines about grades being reduced

Cross post @Snapsnapdragon!

Waving to Coleoptera - hope you’re feeling better?

I’ve just no idea how things will work out in terms of dropping off etc but thought I’d be optimistic and make a couple of bookings (which can be cancelled last minute with no charge). I’m sure we’ll hear more as the time gets closer.

t would be so lovely to have a w/e in Cambridge 🙂🤞

There is an article in the Guardian online today about a father of an A level student, preparing to sue Ofqual for the moderation process. It makes for interesting reading but doesn’t tell us more than we already know.

Chicken and hobbema - Thankyou for your replies and good luck to your DC.

3catsonabed - I don’t know, but I’d guess that they’ll be putting less weight on predicted A level grades and more on the aptitude test results this year, since presumably predictions are even less reliable than usual.
The only certainty is that if he doesn’t apply he won’t get a place. And the first hurdle of doing the test isn’t really that onerous imo, compared to the potential benefit. The tough bit is the interview and by definition if they get that far then there was a point in applying - the uni thinks they may have the potential.

That's a really good way of thinking about it @ErrolTheDragon: if they get an interview it will definitely have been worth the application. If they don't, well there's an argument that they would have wasted one of their five UCAS choices, but I wonder if many people really need five anyway. I guess it depends on how competitive the courses are, but my own DS needed three at most I think. One of my friend's sons only put Oxford down on his UCAS form which I thought was crazy and arrogant brave.

Think I read somewhere that the article about overgenerous teacher grades was mainly GCSE related but could be wrong.. it’s been a long week!