Oxbridge 2020 (thread number 9)

[DadDadDad]

What a year! Just as we've all become experts (at least in our own minds ) about how to write Personal Statements, Oxford admission tests and Cambridge STEP, the complicated dance of the interview process, and how to simultaneously boost our DSs' and DDs' confidence while preparing them for the possibility of disappointment, we have a new topic to learn: statistical modelling of expected grades.

Of course, like all those previous topics, we're not in control of teacher projection and OfQual rejection, but we have this thread to support each other through the coming months.

All welcome. For the record, I have a DS with an Oxford offer for a humanities subject.

You are all calmer than I am. I find computer-determined moderation a problem. And no student appeals allowed because there is no evidence such as a paper which could prove a wrong grade.

I also find teacher-assessed grades a problem because coursework has been phased out as it was found unreliable. Why is a grade given by a teacher acceptable now when it wasn’t in previous years?

@Flyonawalk because we are in a pandemic?
My son did A levels last year and I have no doubt the teacher assessed grades will have matched his actual grades.

To be clear, my disappointment is not that teachers have been asked to provide for grades. When I was a teacher I would have been delighted to be allowed to assess my students in this way, provided it was part of a reliable system. My problem is anticipating computer-generated lowering of grades, where students are not looked at individually.

I don’t doubt the teacher-given grades, Purplepooch. I doubt the justice of whatever computer programme is going to change many of them. Yes we are in a pandemic but so are the others countries which are managing to administer exams this year.

Flyonawalk- have you read the guidance. It is very clear on the range of matters being taken into consideration. Also many A level subjects still have NEAs. As you a posting on an Oxbridge thread you would anticipate that people posting here would be fairly relaxed that their kids will be able to meet their grades as they must have been working at a high level to even apply let alone get offers.

Ad I understand schools can appeal grades if they believe incorrect data has been used. I'm not sure if that is at a school or individual level. My son is outlier in his school and predicted 4xA* (and achieved this in 2 sets of mocks) and I share some anxiety as his school historically don't achieve this some years. But there is nothing we can do and we have to trust that schools have lots of good data.

My problem is anticipating computer-generated lowering of grades, where students are not looked at individually.

But isn't that what happens every year? The grade boundaries get adjusted up and down to make sure that x% get A x% get B.

The model will look at the school and say typically you get 20% B however this year's school cohort got slightly better GCSEs than last year's so let's amend that to show 23%.

Then look at the teachers grades. If it shows teachers have given between 22 -24 Bs then it will prob be OK. If it shows 50 then that's clearly dodgy. They will then look at the number either side and if the school has given fewer As than normal they will bump a few candidate up. If not they will bump some down. Same sort of thing as amending grade boundaries.

If it's a small school with few candidates then it's going to be harder for averages to reflect reality. They recognise this and are therefore going to rely more on the teacher grades.

I really don't see the problem unless you think the teachers aren't able to rank their students.

HuaShan that is my son’s position too - sure to be given four A stars in a school which has had a couple of years of not doing very well. His year are the brightest for several years and many will expect to be given top grades.

It isn’t going to look realistic where a school awards a bunch of A stars in a subject which only got one A star for the last three years. That is what will happen in our school and so I assume several deserving students will lose their grades. Here’s hoping the autumn exam season does actually happen to allow some students to prove themselves.

As long as DD gets the grades she needs to meet her offer, I don't care what she gets. Their GCSEs opened the door to the next stage of their lives and A levels will do the same. Beyond that they don't really matter in the great scheme of things.

But fly if the cohort is brighter then they would have got better GCSEs. If they collectively got better GCSEs then the model will adjust the expected grade profile and award more A*

And no, I am not confident that DD will get the grades she needs. She needs AstarAA. We are both confident that she will get 2 x Astars but she is likely to get a B in the third due to class ranking. In an exam she would get an A but there was always an outside chance she would get a B on a REALLY bad day (humanity)
If she does get a B she will have the chance to take the exam if she wants or she can just go to her very respectable insurance choice.

It's not a problem. In fact you could argue that a lot of the stress has been taken away.

Bpisok - true about the year group getting better than usual GCSEs. Fingers crossed that this makes a difference. Also fingers crossed that your DD gets what she needs.

Hoghygyni - completely agree about just wanting to meet the offer. My DS needs A*AA and he simply wants to get this and make sure of his place. A levels are small in the great scheme of things but they do hold the key to the next stage.

Every year people miss their grades and it's really hard. They were clearly bright and had potential to achieve them but didn't. This year will be the same.
Good luck to your DC though and I hope they get what they need.

In terms of the likelihood of DS getting the grades needed for his offer, I feel more confident with the method being used this year than I would have done if he had been taking exams.

For example, his offer includes A* in Further Maths...

Using centre assessed grades and ranking:
At his school, between 10 and 20 pupils each year get an A* in Further Maths. DS came top in the year group in both the end of Y12 exams and in the Y13 mocks.

If he had taken exams:
He was getting A* in Further Maths practice papers, but anyone can underperform on the day or have a paper which goes badly.

If a lot of students defer university, and some international students decide not to risk coming to the UK, are Oxbridge likely to be a bit flexible over grades do you think?

Unlikely. Their offers are already relatively low.

hello, I was looking for an A level thread but this one seems to be even better for what I wanted to ask about!

My daughter has an offer to study at Oxford but we faced serious bereavements not long after Christmas. This meant she didn't take February mocks. Her attendance the last few terms has also been patchy. Most teachers ahve been very understanding but one has been borderline nasty & sends passive aggressive emails asking about work and attendance. This teacher is her form teacher as well as subject. My daughter is incredibly anxious about the grade she will receive from this teacher and there is no calming her about it. She is fairly confident of As or A*s in her other two subjects and the essays she has submitted in this subject have been graded at 26/30 at the lowest, with one outlier 23 she says. Also plenty at 27+. I assume this is good enough for an A. Would it be a bad idea to email this teaacher to ask whether my daughter's attendance issues will affect her chance at a high grade? Or request that the other teacher does her grade as there are two teachers for the subject, 2 lessons a week each? I am seeking anything to reassure my daughter, who has sobbed to me about this on multiple occasion. It's a challenging time for her at the moment for many other reasons and I want badly to minimise stress. It's heartbreaking.

She really wanted to sit her exams as a distraction and some thing to focus on! I'm sure all your children are feeling pretty similar. Any advice would be appreciated a lot and so sorry for any bad english. Even though I've been here for year it will never be my natural language!

Hi RoiseCap. I am so sorry to hear about the disruption your daughter has faced. It is indeed very hard that she has no exams to aim for and no chance to prove herself.

One teacher who is ‘down’ on her shouldn’t affect her grade. If she is taught by two teachers for that subject, they both have to setbthe grade. Then the head of department has to agree it, before the head of centre (often the headteacher) checks it and it is sent off.

I think schools will want to avoid favouritism or the reverse affecting grades.

I hope your daughter can be reassured and that she doesn’t worry too much. This is a very tense time for lots of us and our children.

Hi @RoiseCap, it sounds like it's been a really tough time for you as well as your daughter and it must be hard seeing her so upset on top of everything that's happened in the last few months.

I don't know which subject it is and I'm more of a science and maths person, but those marks for essays sound pretty high to me. Hopefully high enough for an A anyway. You asked for advice about emailing the teacher. I wouldn't do that; they are under pretty strict instructions not to give any hints about grades and I think this might antagonise a teacher who you already think is not a big fan of your daughter. Probably I'd ask to have a phone call with the head of year or head of academics and have a chat about your daughter's mental health. Given the bereavements, I'd imagine that the school should be keeping a careful eye on her anyway, so this would be a natural thing to do. (I am assuming that, like my son's school, they still have an interest in the pupils and haven't washed their hands of them). I wouldn't directly ask about the grades but you may pick up a reassuring tone (fingers crossed). I do hope all turns out well.

I don't feel angry about the new arrangements for awarding A-level grades... yet. If DS doesn't make his offer I will be hopping mad.

Let’s hope the code which adjusts teacher-given grades is better than the one from Imperial, which predicted a massive death rate and is fast becoming discredited. Rising voices are claiming that lockdown was a mistake. It is interesting to read in today’s press thoughts from a Nobel prize winner (Peter Levitt I think?) that lockdown has saved no lives and in future will be found to have cost many.

I hope none of our children’s Oxbridge places are casualties of what looks more and more like a disastrous mistake.

Thank you Flyonawalk and SnapSnapDragon! Her school is a very big one, I know there were 300 children in her first until fifth form. I think the lower and upper sixth are even a little bigger because most local schools end at fifth form. Because their school is so big I will say the support from a few staff members has been wonderful, but there are also many who have had no idea. Luckily my oldest daughter was quite a "big face" around the school as deputy head girl and a lot of clubs in diferent departments so I think the heads of year may recognise her. I think you are right to call them. I have had lots of positive communications with office staff and other subject teachers. I think this is the only teacher to cause any concern for us.

The subject is English Literature and my daughter says usually it is 24 up to 26 for a minimum A and then 26 up to 28 for a minimum A, so to me 26+ on 95% of her timed essays should equate to A or A. But I suppose I am not a teacher! I just know she has worked very hard and performs well in exams so it would be very sad for her to miss out because of mental health. Reading back I can see many of you fear the same. The school doesn't do that well in A levels as well because a lot of pupils do one or two A levels and then an alternative B-TEC so these students are less practised at exams. I hope she will not be penalised for this. I know she is the only one in her year with an offer to Oxford or Cambridge and there were none last year.

Her score sounds like a solid A at the least and surely an A star. It is very impressive to consistently score so highly on timed essays (former literature teacher here) so let’s hope justice is done. It sounds as if she should be optimistic!

I agree, sounds like every reason to be optimistic. Crack open the champagne now, why not? I've already done so and if the worst comes to the worst at least I have the memory of a rather lovely bottle.

@Flyonawalk, I'm so relieved to hear you talk about lockdown. I've been a lockdown sceptic since, well, ever. I didn't want to mention it hear for fear of causing offence, but you've said it and I agree. It's not that I don't care about saving lives, but I think we are risking more lives by lockdown than we would have been with the herd immunity plan. And I hate that our children are part of the collateral damage.

Thank you! I think all her worrying has projected on to me. One month ago I was calm and confident but as she's got worse I've started to doubt. She only needs 3As and one of her grades is almost certain to be an A* so I'd be surprised if she misses out. I'm just nervous because her insurance offer is for quite a different course at a university that requires very low grades so I'm not sure it would do her justice. If she had a good insurance but it was the same course and still wanted AAB or ABB I'd also feel happier. Her insurance only needs 112 UCAS points! And she already has some from music exams!

I know in my home country the lockdown was very different from the British one and schools have been back for a while. It's interesting to see all the different death/infection rates and how they seem to correspond very little to economy or policy. I know the British people were very pro-lockdown compared to the rest of the world as well. Only now are people starting to question I think.

Thank you SnapSnapDragon! It feels socially unacceptable to question something that most people seem to have swallowed. I am very uneasy about the lack of questioning of experts, the disregard for our economy and the sketchiness of plans going forward.

I have felt convinced from the beginning that the fallout from lockdown will be worse than risking the virus. Surely illnesses are going undiagnosed and untreated. Tanking the economy will kill the NHS which we are all being told to protect. I fear greatly for vulnerable children who need the protection of school and whose life-chances are being diminished.