I think schools are starting the process now and the key starting point isn't a grade, but a rank order. The grades come later.
So schools will g through several stages to get a year group rank order in a subject. It might start with each individual teacher and then 2 subject teachers working together on a class they share and then on a year group. They will use whatever data they have, looking at everything from across the 2 years and perhaps giving more weight to recent data.
Data managers will have analysed each subject over the last 3 or 5 years to see what % got what grade in each subject. They might adjust for the ability of that cohort and then know roughly what % will need to get each grade in each subject this year. They can then use the rank order to slot students in. At that point they can compare to any likely grade a teacher suggests - that really won't have anything to do with UCAS. We know that we'll over 75% of grades predicted for UCAS are beyond what students achieve. UCAS predictions themselves won't matter at this stage regardless of if they were too generous or not generous enough - it will be rank order based on performance during the course.
People worry that students would have had a big surge with revision over the last weeks and boosted their marks and this won't be accounted for. There is no need to worry about this and essentially it will be factored in. How? Well, the previous grades from past years which are looked at from students who sat the exam will have been achieved by students who had that last surge of revision and boosted their performance to get their final grades. Their final grades won't have been the same as the perhaps disappointing mock result they got in January and in the same way, the grades the students get this summer won't just be the disappointing grade they got in a mock this January, but will be a reflection of what they would get in an exam sat in late May, after that surge of revision.
So rank order is very important. A student that has always been top, regardless of their exact performance is likely to be given a grade by the school which reflects the top grades students in past years achieved. Those who are consistently in the bottom 10% are likely to get a grade which reflects what the bottom 10% have got on average (adjusted for ability if cohort) in past.
It won't just be what the teacher says,mbut the orders might be adjusted by data managers having looked at things like ALIS which project forward based on GCSE and ALIS test performance, but this is likely to be minor tinkering and the teacher rank order will be the basis of it all.
Of course once the Board gets the school grades there will be further adjustments - some schools will have been overly generous and the Board will be looking at the ability of the cohort and looking to maintain parity of grades between years and based on the perceived difficulty of the subject. It's good that the final grades don't rest with the school but the Board.
In the end, as is always the case every year, most students won't achieve their UCAS predictions. If they did, across the country there would be mass inflation. Most wouldn't have achieved them if they sat the exam this summer and most won't get them now. It won't be that they were cheated of the chance to shine in the exam. But, more than ever they will get the uni of choice even if they are a bit below. This is often the case, but without international students and with uni need to fill spaces and government keeness to make sure people can continue to the next stage of education, most will move onto the course of their choice or their insurance or somewhere through Clearing like they always do.
Some students have avoid sense of where they are in the pecking order and others have no idea about it. Very successful schools see 90% plus get A-B and will do so again this year. However, if you have consistently been in the bottom 10%, then it's unlikely that you will be getting the A. But of course that was very unlikely in an exam scenario either.
Teacher ranking will be all important in this.