My good friend who is a head of year in one of London’s independent schools told us that any student who has an Oxbridge conditional offer can basically start packing their suitcases now. Unless something absolutely drastic has happened in the last two terms (eg the student literally hasn’t shown up for school or completed a single piece of work) no teacher is going to deny that student their Oxbridge place. In order to reduce predicted grades, they need proof that a student would not have achieved those grades in the summer. The fact is, no teachers can have this proof and so they will have to give them the benefit of the doubt. What else can they do? They realise Oxbridge over-offer, some courses more than others, but to be frank, this is the unis’ problem, not the schools’ problem. Schools would rather take their chances with moderators than take a student’s place from them with no solid evidence. Particularly as, in the case of Oxbridge, these students have already got through the interview stage.
In the case of Oxbridge, they will just have to deal with a bulge year. In reality, this will mean four students in a supervision rather than two, etc. They will have to sort extra accommodation. But it’s not the end of the world and anyway, what is the alternative?
The unis that will be very hit are the ones that would normally receive a high proportion through clearing because very few students will need to be going through this process this year.
My DD showed me on Friday that someone on social media was showing a letter from Liverpool Hope University which states that, as if Friday, they are making all their conditional offers unconditional. This says it all.
Also, international students won’t get put off because it takes a lot of determination to apply overseas. Even if they can’t fly in Sept, the unis will simply have to provide remote teaching for a few weeks / months. Chinese students in particular, will know that this virus will pass and are unlikely to let it dictate their education plans.
If anyone is to be impacted, it’s the current Year 12s who won’t be able to attend any open days or summer schools run by outreach programmes, etc. Nor will they be able to complete any voluntary work, service trips, D of E, performances., lectures etc etc - all the things that might have given the edge to those personal statements. Also, an important term is being taught remotely and home circumstances may dictate how well students are able to engage in home learning.