Low birth rate year for 2021 applicants?

[Parsley65]

Just that really.
I think low birth rate years can be advantageous and am wondering what 2021 - when Dd will be applying - will have in store.

Is it a low birth year then? If so I guess it would be easier to get in a good uni and maybe the offers will be better! Hope so!

The demographic dip has just happened - it'll be higher than now in 2021 I'm afraid... shouldn't impact significantly on uni applications though.

The bottom of the dip was 2019 and 2020 entry, but I guess it’s still lower than 2022 entry.

Actually the very bottom of the dip was 2020 entry. On photo from ONS data from 2015 the dip is age 13. They will be age 18 in 2020. It’s still pretty low the years around the dip.

I would be interested to know if a low birthrate year affects the calibre of students in that cohort. If universities accept students with lower grades than usual for a particular course doesn't it affect the way the course has to be taught for that particular year? Or does it mean that there are more dropouts that year?

I expect it would have an effect, Gin, but universities are slow at changing their courses to take that into account. There may be more drop outs but what I expect will happen will be they’ll still give just as many 1sts, 2:1s etc as ever, leading to grade inflation.

Surely 2021 entry will also be low, as those turning 18 in 2020 will include those born Sept to December 2020 who will form part of 2021 entry.

The graph is a bit deceptive. If you look at the source figures, births in 2001 were the bottom of the dip, 2002 marginally more so for university years the entries for 2019 and 2020 would be the lowest. Bit still quite low for 2021.

Record Oxbridge application numbers at both universities this year despite being at lowest point of the dip. Have DTs in current application round, one for 2021 deferred entry. Expect competition for “top” courses at desirable unis will remain tough...