How to choose uni's so as get a spread of offer grades

[sergeantmajor]

Sorry for the mangled thread title, hard to put into words!

My ds has chosen his top 5 universities, one which gives high grade offers, three with slightly less high, and the last one with lower grades.

Do you think this is the right split? He is having a wobble and saying that maybe he should swap out one of the three middling uni's and replace it with a uni that offers lower grades, in case he muffs up his exams.

He is predicted top grades but is applying to a very competitive course, which is why we went for 3 of the middling ones, hoping we'd get an offer from at least one.

Any thoughts on this?

I think you have done the right thing. One lower one is standard and he would really want to go to either of the lower ones. Many people we know didn’t really want their lower choices and reapplied elsewhere a year later! Be sure about where he wants to study as well as offers. He will probably get some offers and nearly everyone has some pressure to get on competitive courses.

Sounds about right - just make absolutely sure that he'd be happy to study at all of his choices, otherwise, no point in putting them down.

No it seems he has it right considering after all offers are revived he can only pick one firm and insurance and has to reject all the others that give him offers. Presumably he only needs on ‘low grade’ uni as his safety net of his predicted grades are above the standard offer.

He'll get offers from all five. Unless one's Oxbridge in which case he'll get offers from four or five. Having two with lower than his expected does him no favours - he'd be rejecting one in any case as he can't hold two as insurance.

If he's predicted top grades, I would put 2 or 3 with high grade offers and 2 or 3 with middling ones. No point putting anything with low grade offers - if he messes up his exams, the low grade universities will be in Clearing anyway.

What you need to think about is that once the offers come in, he can only keep two anyway.

DS3 is going to be using clearing as his insurance. Nearly all the universities he was looking at were in clearing on results day this August. No point putting lower unis on his ucas firm, imo.

DS was predicted top grades and we opted to only put courses that he wanted to do.

We agreed that If he didn't get the grades then he'd take a year out and have a rethink without being rushed into something he wasn't sure about.

It depends very much on what you want as your Plan B.

DS was applying for a very competitive subject. He applied to the four top ranked Universities, well aware that he might have to take a gap year and re-apply. He got three rejections, but an offer on almost the last day of March. He knows someone who was rejected from all four, but was offered a place at Cambridge the following year.

It depends on what you want to do eventually. There can be advantages in throwing caution to the wind and aiming high, at least on first application. DS is now studying for a PhD. He might have got to the same place eventually, but the pathway was much easier from a technically rigorous and well-recognised course.

What is he predicted and what is the current range of offers?

I think that sounds right. Advice at ds's school was one that should be a stretch, three where you meet the predicted grades and one that is below. As pp have mentioned you can only hold two offers so I would only go for one 'reserve'. By the time offers start to come in/ you need to make a decision which offers to hold your dc will have a better idea regarding whether they will achieve/exceed predicted grades.
Ds took the IB and kept two offers - one at 38 and one at 35. The ones he rejected wanted 36, 36 and 35. Also look at any subject specific requirements - eg ds rejected one course with 36 as they wanted 6 in HL maths and kept the 35 which asked for a 5.

It's so hard to know. The course and location (if that would be a factor) has to be right for him. DD did the same when applying as your son is considering one high, three middle, one lower (primarily due to the fact that not many unis offers her course/similar). Her insurance supposedly had a 46% offer rate which I was worried about, but I guess they factored in expected higher grades, reference and personal statement. Either way, I think it's important to get across in his PS his passion for subject (especially if it's a competive course). DD put in what sparked her initial interest, relevant work experience (albeit one days voluntary but she didn't have to tell them that). Some might mention something interesting in a book. DD knew what her long term aim was following degree, so mentioned that. Also, got across that her extra curricular showed that she balance and manage extra pressure.

She ended up at her insurance (the lower one) and is more than happy there.

Thanks so much for the great advice - it seems pretty consistent!

Ha. But with one dissenting opinion. Seriously though if he is capable of top Universities it is worth considering it as a two year process. You dont need a fall back if you have a Plan B of a gap year. Margins between acceptance and rejection on the most competive courses will be very fine.

No way of answering without knowing what the subject is. Vastly different for very popular subjects compared with the ones that need to get bums on seats.

I would just add that there is no point whatsoever in getting an offer from a place that you actually don’t want to go to. If that means that all 5 are aspirational applications then so be it. At the very least you know that (maybe with the exception of a few courses) there probably will be a reasonable or some selection in clearing or else you can apply the following year. If you are predicted top grades for a competitive course then there is an element of luck with each application so there is a good argument for maximising your chances just by applying for the universities you really want. If you get no offers then you get a second shot whereas if you have an insurance from one (that you in fact don’t want to go to) then you are much more tied and the best you can do is escape via adjustment. An application to a place you don’t really want to go to is really an application wasted.

I think several of us said all university choices should be where DC wants to go. If one has to be lower grades, but the other offers are from the other four, or even three, there is still choice. Discard the lower offer. Choose from the best available to you. If DC misses those grades, go for clearing.

Unis have a range of strategies when deciding on their standard offers, meaning that some that look aspirational might be up on this year 's standard offers.

However even some very popular courses previously only accepting A*AA seemed to be in clearing longer than many others this year and it's likely that the concessions reflected this altho it is a while before this info will be in the public domain I think.

Go for what you want and feel you are capable of but check the uni's previous offers and hold accordingly, remembering that the 2020 entry birthrate is the lowest for 3 years and unis are hanging on for the 2023 cohorts as they are predicted to be big so it's not financial good sense to start reducing their range of courses offer now!

It really would be easier to say, if you gave all the details of course, predictions, and standard entry requirements.

The general idea is to go to the 'best' university that you think you'd like to live at. So I wouldn't advocate deliberately choosing a much lower-down-the-tables uni just for the sake of safety. A grade or two leeway is usually all you need.