Predicted CCC

[Notsureabouthis]

Bit gutted tbh.

School is massively cracking down as have over predicted historically so teachers have clearly been told to resist parental pressure!

Just really need a bit of support as DS now feeling really demoralised. Shocked really as he got a B in his internal History exam at the end of last year. They’ve predicted C-D for History “which could be a B with work and consistency “. But he’s been told that it’s the C that’s going on UCAS. The school gets the applications in early (by November.)

What would be the level of aspirational entry requirements we should look at? We were looking at ABB aspirational but that feels pie in the sky now.

Having a gap year anyway so he was applying this year for 2021 entry. He’s dyslexic and struggles with focus and work ethic is not always brilliant (to be fair I think he gets exhausted) so hopefully an extra year will help.

Hand hold please!!!!

@Propertyfaux - thanks! We need to speak to the school again I think.

@happychange - he just loves History! No long term goal yet, he’s a 17 year old boy and young for his age really. We’ll fund him as long as he’s working hard. He’s not hugely practical so a trade doesn’t appeal.

@Bronzegate - thank you! That’s my feeling too.

@GoGoJo - music to my ears thank you!!! Three bites at the cherry! 😆

I’d apply and you can choose to defer. A friends son did this and used the year on an apprenticeship in the area he wanted to work. Great idea!

DS1 school still did AS levels last year and got BCCC and that became his predicted grades of BCC. He ended up with AAB. It took the first year for him to realise he could not cram like he did in his GCSEs. He put so much more effort in Year 13 and his predicted grades gave him a large kick up the backside. He did lots of past papers. Is he getting extra time for the dyslexia? DS also helped by his sixth form was allowed to use a laptop for exams. He found it so much easier and can type faster than he can write.

Hi OP. If you/he think a gap year would be beneficial, I would put off applying until this time next year. That way he will have the grades and can apply to places which will definitely accept them. It cuts out a lot of uncertainty.
My DS did this. He was predicted 3C's which meant he couldn't apply anywhere he wanted to go. He planned a gap year so he knew what he was doing post A levels, got 3B's and ended up with 5 unconditional offers when he did apply. He's now very happy at his original first choice university and he really grew up in his year out.

There is a website where you can enter your predicted grades and you can check how likely it is to get an offer with those predicted grades (?what uni?) This would help weed out some of the ones he shouldn't apply to. If you think he could do a bit better, I would suggest looking at BBB places, a lot of those will take one or two Cs on results day. Does he have another set of mocks? If so he may be able to pull up one or more of his predicted grades. See if you can find out which of the mid-range Uni's went into Clearing this year. I would say definitely apply this year as they are a low birth rate cohort so it's more of a buyer's market. Swansea is another mid-range uni to add to your list, it has a strong history department. Have you thought about having your DS tested for ADHD? Many dyslexics have ADHD and those with the inattentive form aren't hyperactive so it may not be obvious.

I know someone who is very happy at Winchester - it has a medieval History specialism. He achieved what your son is predicted overall pointwise, but higher in History ifysim.
My own son achieved the equivalent of CCC (although was one was a much higher BTec grade) and is very very happy at Oxford Brookes (not for History though) His prediction was slightly higher but tbh I think most of the cohort were at his level. Not so medieval history there though...

My experience with my son is that you still get high offers even if you are predicted lower. So Surrey gave him an offer of ABB and Cardiff BBB, when he was predicted BBC - they didn't just reject him outright. It can be an incentive (although in my son's case it is just put him off and he accepted an unconditional from Brookes...)

Definitely apply this year, you have nothing to lose except to go through Adjustment. But do put an Aspirational choice down even if it seems high, like York or Liverpool, you never know.

UWE in Bristol, maybe? Or Aston, right in the centre of Birmingham. Or Manchester Met?

Sorry, I see you're already looking at Manchester Met.

His school's UCAS predicting goes against the spirit of UCAS predictions and puts him at a disadvantage against students from other schools where predictions are kindly (recent research showed this 'over' prediction was common from selective schools, where students are already at an advantage, and schools with more disadvantaged students tended to underpredict). UCAS predictions are always seen as ' the best grade you can get, with hard work and the wind behind you'. It is perfectly normal to have different internal and progress check prediction (for example, my DS had BBC UCAS predictions but more realistic predictions reported to us were BCD). Had he actually worked hard, and had he had more consistent teaching the BBC would have been achieved and maybe even higher. UCAS predictions should be at least a bit optimistic.

I'd challenge them , based on the facts in your OP.

Kent is in Canterbury and about an hour by train from London so not at all remote.

@choirmumoftwo - thank you. When your son reapplies with his actual grades did he apply for courses that asked slightly above? E.g if he got BBB did he apply for any at ABB?
@Propertyfaux well done to your son! Yes mine does get extra time and use if a laptop. We’re trying a reading pen too as he sometimes misreads the question in exams when he’s stressed.
@Nettleskeins
@mushroom3 - thanks again for such a helpful post. Yes the ADHD is on our radar but we just don’t know if it’s one label too many. I think we’re going to revisit it.

@nettleskeins- thank you. He was really gutted about Liverpool as he loved it.

@mushroom3 - having had parent’s evening now they’re going to give him a test in 2 weeks in one subject. If he does well and peeps are consistently a B they may up the prediction. History - we need to wait as apparently the hardest topic is coming up with a big interpretation question. This is the sort of question he can struggle to stay on task with. That’s why they gave him a C they said. If he does well over the next few weeks and coursework looks good they will up to a B. So that was more positive.

The third A level we accept the C as he does find it hard and is more at C/D level.

I would really push with the school to get the predicted grades changed if you feel they’re not right. Especially if he’s getting Bs in history, surely it should be a B for predicted grade?

Dd was in a similar position last year. Was getting Bs in all tests and school originally put down BBC for predicted grades. The course she wanted to do was BBB level. I rang school up and asked them to change it as I knew this would increase her chances of unconditional offers. School did change it and dd got an unconditional for her first choice, which I dont think she’d have got with predicted grades of BBC. Though they do say not as many unis will make unconditional offers this year?

@Piggywaspushed - thank you. I think last year so many missed their first places that they’re trying to be more realistic. We have a tutor for one subject- he’s very experienced with predictions and seems to work with a lot of top public school pupils. He was outraged at the CCC!!!

The school said yesterday that the application won’t go in until it’s right for the child so whilst they do like to get in early we can hold off and try and get 2 of them up to Bs.

My son doesn’t help himself though as he told me he forgot 2 homework's this week. He was apologetic and has now done them but now is not the time to be doing that!

@DecomposingComposers - OK not remote if you live in the South East.

But we don’t and if we come then we fly so it’s a headache to get to.

Is an ABB establishment the right place even if he does pull the grades? He seems to be achieving amazingly well despite his difficulties but sometimes being with people with similar struggles is better. Neighbour’s DD struggles terribly with anxiety but worked so hard and got an amazing BBB. People tried to persuade her to adjust up to previous ABB from her firm CCC, but she knows how hard she had to work and wanted to feel comfortable with her peers. She didn’t want another 3 years of feeling she could not keep. She is in second year and loving it.

@propertyfaux - very good point yes you’re right. I think the ones we’ve looked at Liverpool and Leicester were both in clearing for lower (Leicester definitely was). Thanks though. It’s a fine line between helping to raise him up but in a realistic way if you know what I mean!!!

But we don’t and if we come then we fly so it’s a headache to get to.

But Gatwick is what, an hour's drive, if that? It's on the high speed rail.link that takes you to the Channel Tunnel. It's basically right on the M2 motorway and Canterbury itself is fantastic. It has everything that you could want right there.

Fair enough if he doesn't want to go there but I think dismissing somewhere that he liked because you think it's remote when it isn't is a bit short sighted.

I think predicted grades of CCC are going to make it difficult for.many of the universities that you've mentioned. My nephew got BBD and didn't get onto the course that he wanted at Leicester because they would accept BBB as the lowest.

Likewise my son had an offer at Kent to study history. He actually achieved BBC and they withdrew their offer. He ended up at Canterbury Christ Church.

My dd was predicted A*AB and got an unconditional offer at Kent and is there now studying English lit so their requirements are quite high.

Maybe have a look at Canterbury Christ Church. My son's passion is medieval history and his dissertation was on the crusades and the Knights Templar. He lived Christ Church for that and the medieval specialists that are there. He also had access to the archives in the cathedral.

Like most people, I hate the predicted grade farce. Dds school has a ‘policy’ of not predicting A* unless you were applying for Oxbridge(!?!)
If she had applied to Oxbridge it would have been interesting to see if her AAA predictions had gone up. She actually got AAA.
In the big scheme of things it made no difference to Dd but some people were given unconditionals on the basis of A* predictions.

@decomposingcomposers- thanks!

I really liked Canterbury and the cathedral is amazing. He loved the cathedral. However he just wants a big city more urban vibe.

Hi again OP. Yes, all of his choices asked for higher than BBB but accepted him unconditionally (it was for music and he had 2 Grade 8 practical exam passes and a very relevant gap year).
If you're applying with grades already available they can only really say yes or no so it's a much clearer process.

The course she wanted to do was BBB level. I rang school up and asked them to change it as I knew this would increase her chances of unconditional offers. School did change it and dd got an unconditional for her first choice, which I dont think she’d have got with predicted grades of BBC.

What grades did she actually achieve?

This brings up arguments against both predicted grades and unconditional offers.

School over predicts (often after pressure from parents) and an offer is made that the child is unable to meet; if they are very lucky they are accepted anyway, or they don't get into their firm and possibly not even insurance, and end up in clearing.

OR

Based on an inaccurate prediction, they are given an unconditional offer because the university believes they are capable of meeting/exceeding their standard offer. The pupil then achieves grades that would not have got them in to that university without the UO, but which reflect their actual ability.