Low AS and predictions

[itsmecathycomehome]

DS is an only child, and the only person who's ever aspired to university in our family so I'm at sea on this and don't know how to advise him.

Basically, last Summer his father and I separated after I discovered an affair. Unfortunately this necessitated a house move and a school move for DS, who left his independent school to join a state school for Year 12. Over the year, he developed a mental health issue (including a suicide attempt) that has required both CAMHS and private counselling but he is much better now.

Despite this tough year - new school, no friends etc - he has maintained 100% attendance, never missed a deadline and had the most glowing end of year report from his teachers.

BUT his mock exams resulted in grades ABB, and his EPQ was a B, and his AS subject was a C.

I'm phenomenally proud of him for that, but he wants to do a competitive course at a good uni and they are all asking for AAA or AAB. All I care about is his health and happiness, but he wants this so much and I want to help him.

DS says he's settled and happy now - he does appear to be and has his last session with CAMHS next week - and will just work hard and get those grades. I'm sure he will, but can he even apply to unis asking for AAA with those grades?

I don't know whether he should apply, with his teacher reference maybe referring to the difficulties he's had, or talk him into aiming lower, or suggest he resits. Can anyone help?

Incidentally, only one member of staff know about his MH issues/CAMHS this year because he wanted it kept quiet.

Those are pretty impressive mock results given all that your son has been through. DD achieved AABB at AS level, dropped one of the A subjects to concentrate on three A levels and ended up with AAA last year.

With ABB at the end of year 12 achieving AAA at the end of year 13 is very doable. Can he drop the C subject?

Thanks tapas. Yes he's dropping the C subject.

I also think they're great results in the circumstances, and I do think he can achieve AAA by the end of Y13, but will they even consider him? I don't know whether applying to a uni requiring AAA is a wasted choice iyswim.

Yes of course he can apply! He'll get offers too. Don't worry one bit. (As a comparison ds had ABC predicted, had 5/5 offers, incl 3 RG, standard grade requirements went up to AAA.)

He did worse than that btw but somehow managed to scrape into his first choice RG.

I suppose I don't want to encourage him to aim high and not get any offers, or encourage him to aim lower if he ends up selling himself short. It's so hard. I don't know how other people know this stuff. I've read everything I can online, went to the parent meeting at school, and still feel confused!

Well done your son titchy, I'll be glad when this part is all over!

OP those are VERY good results, definitely good enough to be applying for AAA courses. Schools usually predict at least one or two grades above what was achieved in yr 12 anyway because they expect that you would have improved by the time you sit finals.
Universities also in line with this, usually offer one or two grades above applicants predicted grades.

My experience with my DC and Unis this year has completed changed my view on them. I thought it was all rigid grades, no flexibility etc etc. But we were fortunate that the school flagged our DC's issues in a letter directly to the Unis they were applying to and as a result they have accepted a place at a RG uni on lower grades because the extenuating circumstances they had were fully taken account of. I suggest you start making contact with the admissions officers for the unis your son is interested in and tell them the full circumstances of your situation. your school should also be able to write and support this. don t want to go into too much detail here as it will be outing but honestly speaking to the uni admissions officers as early as you can will be the best thing that you can do.

Did he sit in- house mocks or actual AS papers?
If they were mocks then the school does not have to give those grades to the uni at all only their predictions which could reasonably be higher. Even if he did do actual AS exams so these grades are declared in the education section then with good predictions and a helpful teacher reference explaining the upheaval and that all is now well would usually (in my experience as a Head of Sixth Form) be more than enough for anyone. I would actually be very surprised if he didn’t get offers from most of those courses even if his teacher reference said nothing helpful about last year.
My only caveat would be if he were looking at medicine or some particular maths and engineering courses or a couple of other departments I can think of that are massively oversubscribed but they all ask for an A* to begin with.

He will get good offers and if he does exceed then there is clearing and adjustments or as my friend son who got 3 A* he took the gap year as an imperial place was worth waiting for. His predicted grades may still be AAA.

Thank you so much everyone, you have put my mind at ease and given such useful advice. I feel a bit more confident talking to him about it now. Why do kids always assume that mum knows what she's talking about?!

cats, three in-house mocks and one actual AS that must be declared. Sadly, that was the C.

That’s fine thought as they will see he has dropped it ergo it was his lowest grade (helps them have faith in teacher predictions). As long as staff back up the reasons for their A grade predictions in the reference all will be well.
This week I had two students with AAB + AAA offers from top Russell Group unis on good courses get in with ABB and AAB so it’s not the end of the world if he doesn’t get up the AAA in the end anyway

The school will advise to apply for one or two aspirational universties, a couple of achievable ones and at least one insurance.

OP you and he might find this tool useful and reassuring:

https://www.ucas.com/advisers/offer-rate-calculator/

I think a lot of kids including mine slacked off in lower sixth as many schools didn’t do AS levels and the kids felt that meant end year exams weren’t important. Many are now worried about their predicted grades! My son had to go and speak to his teachers and admit he’s been lazy and had underperformed. He asked to resit one test where he was so disappointed in himself. I think he will still get predicted the grades he is capable of (A/A*) as his exams didn’t reflect his years work and actually I think it was the wake up call he needed as he’s been more interested in socialising than revising and now he’s realised that he can’t cruise the way he did at gcse. Encourage him to speak to the teachers about why he thinks his grades don’t reflect his ability. Did he do well at GCSE? Teachers will be very optimistic but not unrealistic about predicted grades. My son had a honest conversation with his teachers about what he needed to do to reach the grade he wanted. theres still time to show teachers through homework etc that are capable of higher grade. I think my sons teachers were as frustrated as I was about his start to A levels and that he was not working hard enough - but he was far from the only one who decided no AS levels meant an easy year. He is still aiming for top unis and his teachers are very aware he is capable of getting top marks if he puts his mind to it. We don’t know his predicted grades yet but if they aren’t great then worst scenario is my son takes a year out and applies on his actual grades. Not ideal but self inflicted in his case. I can’t see given the great school report and that your son will now be concentrating on only 3 subjects why couldn’t get AAA predicted. Honestly I know a lot of students in a similar situation who haven’t done as well as they should this year with far less good reasons than your son. Make sure he’s ready to go back in sept eg done all his holiday work and got his files in order. Some unis offer taster lectures or weekends and really want to target students who are the first in their family to go to uni. Look at Sutton Trust, Villiers Park courses and uni websites - many are free or offer bursaries. Doing a couple of residentials has helped my son decide on his subject and meant he’s got advice on personal statements and interviews etc.

What a great tool titchy thank you.

Thanks everyone. We've spent the afternoon talking about this, and I think we've got a plan thanks to your advice.

Hugo he hasn't had predictions from school yet but got ABB in the in-house mocks and I think school indicated that they'd use those. Whether they'd take his circumstances into account and predict a little higher, I don't know.

I cross posted with you donkey. I'm glad your son has seen his marks as a wake up call and is buckling down.

DS has sorted his files and done his coursework and homework, so hopefully will have a good start in September.

Your DS has nothing to worry about - he should definitely head for aspirational choices and be ambitious! He's done very well indeed.
With all the support he needs, my DS hasn't done quite as well in AS levels, especially given the courses he wants to apply to and will need to prove himself when he gets back to school. However, I think he can do it and will be encouraging him as he's actually not too far off where he needs to be and had improved further over the Summer term! Mine most definitely needed a wake-up call!

I'm sure that you and he have considered this, but if the only member of staff who knows about your DS's background / MH issues isn't the person who will be writing his reference, your DS does need to give him/her permission to share the information. Wrt moving from indie to state for sixth form, this seems to happen quite often just as a personal choice (course availability etc) and isn't necessarily in itself an indication of a change in financial circumstances.