Can I just add a thought about private schools? They tend to undermark (especially the students at the bottom end of their skewed ability spectrum). This is based on a lot of experience, so not anecdotal. It may well be that those 'disastrous' mock results aren't as far off what he needs as it may seem.
That’s interesting.
Research by the Sutton Trust suggests that many fee-paying schools over-predict A levels. (The Sutton Trust argues that this disadvantaged children at State schools serving working-class areas)
Could it be a compensation for under-marking within the school?
But there’s still time for the OP’s son to pull his finger out. I hoe he finds his commitment soon! But I would still urge however, that there’s a bigger conversation about Why university?
Speaking more generally I’m a great believer in gap years - I prefer teaching young people who’ve made a deliberate decision to attend university, rather than seeing it as the next inevitable step in life without thinking about WHY they want to go to university. I wish there weren’t this middle-class treadmill, and that university were always a positive choice rather than the expected next step.
And it is class-based - this is not a nasty personal opinion - it’s derived from the excellent work of the Sutton Trust (as a professor at one institution i worked closely with the Sutton Trust -wonderful organisation).
According to the information we get, sociologists-economic privilege maps onto educational advantage from about the age of 3. Hence universties’ use of contextual offers.