Sorry - should have kept a closer eye on this thread!
I don't want anyone to let him in if STEP goes badly. Imagine how awful it would be to be at somewhere like Cambridge if you couldn't cope with the work. I'd much prefer him to go somewhere else in that situation.
Every year about a third of students who are accepted to read maths at Cambridge miss their STEP offer (they usually get a 1 in STEP 2 and a 2/3 in STEP 3). So if someone missed their STEP grade and still gets in it's not unusual! (I wish someone had told me this 20+ years ago).
does Cambridge ever go higher than asking for a 1? Or is that a really, really difficult offer ? (I'm very uninformed about STEP, all I know is that it sounds brutal).
Yes, but not usually for State school pupils. I once taught someone who had an S, S offer for Trinity - got 1,1 and was taken by T Hall (this was an independent school.
However there have been a couple of colleges who have given an S grade to a state school student. Very few, and I don't know why!
I've seen mention of contextualised offers in this Oxbridge thread. Hang on... do these actually exist?
Some Cambridge colleges have introduced a "flexible offer" for maths - see www.maths.cam.ac.uk/undergraduate-admissions/what-qualifications-do-i-need. It's not clear what criteria the colleges will use, but the aim is to encourage disadvantaged and unrepresented groups to apply.