Do A level results indicate degree results?

[labradoodles]

I have a DD on a gap year at the moment, who will probably take her offer from LSE if she doesn’t get Oxford. (Outcome from interview soon!)

She got AAA at a level, at our local bog standard comprehensive.

She’s scared that as the vast majority will have higher grades than AAA, that she is doomed for failure once there. I’ve tried to tell her not to be silly, but she’s a tad paranoid.

In her eyes she’d be better off going somewhere middling like her Birmingham offer, where she’d be nearer the top of her cohort.

They can... although it's not always that straight forward.

A surprisingly large number of students do drop out, change course or change university. Even the brain surgeon Henry Marsh did back when he was at Oxford, it happens. Life isn’t always straight forward.

I know it happens. I work at a university and come across this but potential students need to understand that it isn't as straightforward as people think. You can't always just transfer onto another course - you still need the appropriate entry requirements and moving elsewhere for your second year will often mean achieving high grades in your first year. Dropping out and starting again somewhere else the year after could cost you up to £9,250.

It can be an option and can often be the best option but it's not one that should be considered lightly.

I think it was suggested though in the context of trying a year at Oxford with the option of transferring to Birmingham if it doesn't pan out, and presumably OP's dd already meets the original entry requirements for Birmingham. It would depend of course on the two courses being compatible and similar course content.

Not quite....once you take prior attainment and contextual factors such as socioeconomic background, school attended etc state school students do perform better - they make larger improvements at HE. It's complicated but essentially state school students gain more at university.

But this is not uniform across all courses. The difference is marginal for very competitive high tariff courses (such as the ones under discussion here), and more pronounced for other courses.

Does the data on state/independent performance difference break down in terms of chosen degree subject/institution attended?

These are evidence based trends and generalisations. Of course Individual student, institutions and courses paint very unique pictures.

it will indeed vary - eg my son's best and university subject in which he won the school prize no one in A level got above a B which is incredible for a private school and not consistent with his other results norr his GCSEs but perhaps they all just did badly on the day or the teaching was bad or it was a hard paper or just luck. However we can be pretty sure no one will be contextualising those private school results compared with a local comp wnhich got A*s because of better teaching for example. You jsut have to make the best of the hand you are dealt and get on with it.

titchy since you have 'bucket loads' of data perhaps you could tell us what percentage of Oxford students do achieve only a 2.2 or third and whether the data has screened out all Oxford students who get those results due to mental health or emotional difficulties as opposed to academic ones. I think your whole proposition is poor.

For reference - titchy:

"No correlation at all. (I've got bucketloads of data on this.) If she isn't convinced look at the percentage of Oxford graduates getting 2:2s and 3rds - they'll all have arrived with at least 3 x As".

I could but you'll have to wait till I'm back at work next week!

You might be interested in the value added score the Guardian uses:
https://uploads.guim.co.uk/2018/05/24/GuardianUniversityGuide2019.xlsx

It's got its faults, but gives you an indication of the poor correlation between Level 3 tariff and good degree.

Students often don't declare MH difficulties, even if seeking support from their university, so it isn't possible to look at this.

Your link doesn't seem to be working titchy, not for me anyhow, although knowing what I do about the intrinsic problems with value added as a measure for grammar school students I doubt I'm going to be bowled over by any value added analysis for those starting from a high base at Oxford and Cambridge.

When you do get back to work and to your files of data I think you'll be surprised by the tiny number of 2.2s and thirds at Oxford (your earlier post implied there were lots) and if you make further enquiries of anyone teaching at Oxford I'm confident that you'll find that behind those lower grades the overwhelming majority have a story behind them not relating to academic ability or even effort, but difficulties of an extraneous sort. Which is why I question your post and your logic.

www.ox.ac.uk/about/facts-and-figures/undergraduate-degree-classifications?wssl=1

Grand total of anything lower than a 2:1 - 180 out of 3020 candidates. Although I'm sure I've heard a vicious rumour that the university may have ways of dealing with those who are likely to fall into that category, before they get to show up in the statistics, but that probably goes on everywhere.

No doubt the comparable data for Cambridge, Imperial, LSE etc must be available somewhere, but the Norrington Table was an easy hit.

Goodbyestranger the number of 2:2s does vary by subject at Oxford and is not insignificant for the science subjects and some social sciences but as you say really low generally for the humanities.

Link below is an example for 2016
gazette.web.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/gazette/documents/media/final_honour_schools_2016.pdf

So if OP’s DD is doing for example a humanity she can be reassured that acceptance by Oxford means that she has the ability academically for at least a 2:1 there.

Subjects such as Computer Science and Maths have the highest entry requirements and are highly competitive for entry into Oxbridge. Yet, significant numbers of 2.2 and 3rd are awarded in these subjects. It is far more challenging to receive a 2.1 or higher in these subjects than it is in Humanities.

Link is from here ('download the spreadsheets'):
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/may/23/methodology-behind-the-guardian-university-guide-2017

If there was a significant correlation between entry grades and degree class, you'd expect virtually 100% at Oxford (above link shows it's 92%), and very low at Leeds Beckett (it's around 65%). And no I'm not saying that a first from Oxford is comparable to a first from Beckett. But the straight correlation of high A levels = a 1st just isn't there. It's far more nuanced than that and there are huge differences between the subjects of course.

titchy I stand by the points I made above. But also, the whole basis of this thing is nonsense. Oxford can't award firsts to pretty much everyone: there's a lot of discussion about the proportion of firsts/ 2.1s etc at Oxford but to a significant extent, Oxford students are being examined in relation to each other, not in relation to those at other low tariff unis. The premise here is all wrong. Oxford and Cambridge are red herrings in this discussion.

As an employer I'd take a des from Oxbridge above a first from Leeds Beckett so there's your answer. Go to the best university that will take you.

And the IFS report on earnings post degree indicates employers do exactly that! However subject is important too!

Also looking at one of their reports on student background and earnings, they name 17 RG universities and look at earnings and background of students. Birmingham isn’t among them.

Oxford students are being examined in relation to each other, not in relation to those at other low tariff unis.

Exactly! So the A level grades are pretty irrelevant within an institution. And certainly within the sector.

Basically yes, but the OP's daughter is missing the point that she'd possibly be better off with a 2:2 from Oxford than a 2:1 from Birmingham.

Also, tbh, if you do some work at Oxbridge you probably will get a 2:1. Most people I know who didn't only have themselves, and their social and sporting commitments to blame

So the A level grades are pretty irrelevant within an institution. And certainly within the sector.
I suspect that the data would show that achieving the top A level grade or equivalent analysed within each higher tier university are correlated with degree classification for STEM but less so for humanities.

Of course there will be some outlier students that skew the data due to context of personal circumstances.

For some STEM degrees almost all entrants will have A*s in relevant subjects so the analysis is not possible.
For the same analysis applied to the HE sector as a whole , there are too many variables between universities and subjects to conclude anything.

Johnnycomelately A 2:2 from Oxford is not better than a 2:1 from Birmingham for many generic graduate entry applications which exclude students with 2:2s

Agree. Johnnycomelately you won't get far on a lot of grad schemes these days with a 2.2, whether from Oxford or not. You'll fall at the first sift.

I suspect that the data would show that achieving the top A level grade or equivalent analysed within each higher tier university are correlated with degree classification for STEM.

Yes, this is true. (But of course it is still complicated also by socio-economic background, type of school attended, health issues etc.)

Perhaps more importantly students who drop below an A in A level maths have relatively low rates of 2:i/completion for degrees in maths, computer science, engineering at high tariff universities. This is why these courses don't drop the requirement for an A in maths even in Clearing.

BTW I don't think anyone in this thread has pointed out the obvious issue that state v private is far too naive a split, when both types of schools cover a wide spectrum - some of the most successful state sixth form colleges (Hills Road, Peter Symonds, Kings Maths etc) take a lot of students from private 11-16 education.

Yes and plenty in Grammars could afford private. Some private schools also cater for milder Sen and don’t expect or get many high grades at A level. Just because these children do relatively well at school, it doesn’t mean this can be continued at university. Generally high achieving from all schools and walks of life do well as long as they choose the right course at the right university. Aiming high is key for all!