Predicted grades vs typical offers

[Confusedmum2001]

New to the world of university entrance process. If my child is predicted AAA and the typical offer grades for the courses he’s interested in at very competitive universities in are AAA what are his chances of securing an offer? I’m concerned that the other applicants will have at least AAA for their predictions.

Plug predicted grades, universities and courses into the UCAS Offer Rate Calculator to see how likely an offer will be based on past UCAS stats. These things usually vary from university to university and from course to course.

www.ucas.com/advisers/offer-rate-calculator/

As he has 5 choices, don’t put all 5 as A*AA. Scale down for 2 or 3. It’s not a good idea to just want one university because if you don’t get in - what then? They make more offers than places and unless it’s a ridiculously competitive course your DC stands a good chance if they meet the standard requirement. However as you cannot be sure other candidates won’t be preferred, there is a need to apply for lower tariff courses as well. You will never know how many DCs with higher predicted grades will apply - you can only make your own application and you cannot second guess what other DCs will do!

I didn't kwno about the offer calculator but it seems not to work very well? If I put my DS's higher predicted grades in, I either get told he has a more than 90 % chance , or get told 'there is a problem' or some such. No matter what I do, I cannot get any doifferent outcome from these two!

I also wish it was easier to find out how many actual places vs applicants each course had.

Some universities tell you this. I’ve seen it on several web sites. However as you have 5 options I really think you are over thinking this. What subject are you looking at Piggy? And where? You really cannot tick every box with getting accepted. Either DC meet the criteria or they don’t. The majority of universities are not that choosy. They need the bums on seats. Just make applications as I described above in terms of aspirational and one notch down based on the typical offers. Unless you are looking at Oxbridge and a few others, you will probably be ok for the majority of the choices. If it’s MFL everyone will want DC. If it’s History or English at a sought after university then it’s a bit more competitive.

Remember grades don't count for everything - my course required AABBB and I got AAAB and completely failed my maths but as I had lots of extra curriculurs and a really good personal statement they let me in. Others who got the same grades as me didn't get in as they didn't have any extra curriculurs

Others who got the same grades as me didn't get in as they didn't have any extra curriculurs

In decades of working in academia, I have never seen a single case where dropped grades were accepted because of extra curricular activities.

Usually dropped grades are accepted according to algorithms e.g. the offer was AAA but AAB is accepted provided the B is not in the main subject. For the small percentage of courses that interview, strong interview performance may play a role in the decision.

Yes bubbles it's MFL (possibly although he wavers between this and IR/ War Studies : he isn't making any decisions or commitments). I think the fact that I can't find this data means I am not sure exaclty how aspirational he can be. I know, for example, that Swansea gives out unconditionals at a certain application level ... I sort of feel that with predictions of about BCC, he coudl actually apply much higher than that for MFL...

But this may be my aspiration and not his

I'd really try and rule out worrying about whether other candidates have AAA*. If he's predicted the required grades and can show through his PS that he's motivated and anything he's done outside lessons relating to the course subject, ie reading a book and what he's learn, volunteering, attending a talk etc.

As others have said, it would be good if he can find a back up course just in case he doesn't get the grades. My DD is also forecast AAA, she's applying for courses with AAA, AAA and AAB (although last has a low offer rate of 46%). Still considering other courses, but ones that are in the mix are A*AA and the rest AAA. In the ideal world I'd want her to apply for another with lower grades, but she's struggling to find the right courses.

Thanks guys for all your responses. Feeling a little more confident now that he will get some offers. Let’s hope his personal statement is impressive enough to tip the scales in his favour. Then all he needs to do now is actually get the grades!!!

Piggy: DDs friend got into Bristol to do Italian with CCC but after a gap year spent in Italy. However, French and Spanish are more competitive because they are widely taught in schools. If it is German, or another minority language or one that is not taught so much, you can be a bit more hopeful of upping a couple of choices. Even if he does not get into all, he may well have good enough options .

I would not do War Studies: too niche. I would look at IR plus a language though. That is a better combination. Again universities like their MFL departments to have students in them, so worth looking at joint with an MFL, always!

I agree about War Studies. DS does Spanish but is interested in picking up German or Italian as well. So, he may be all right in the end. You never know...