I think I've got a pretty relaxed attitude to DD's application, as has she, in that we are realistic about her chances. She sees the application process as valuable experience in of itself and that she will at least have her university application in early, so she can concentrate on Y13. Having DS just finish Y13, I'm aware it's a tough year for the students.
And there's really nothing to lose by having a go to our minds. We have similar issues to some on this thread in that our school get few successful applications to Oxbridge. Dd sent her PS to her tutor, who gave her advice and feedback about the content that was contrary to that which she had been given on the UNIQ course, so I'm even more pleased that she had this experience.
We've already covered her other university choices apart from one via the open days and dd can see merit in all of them and would be happy to study at any, which I think is sensible. I have covered the country recently via open days, having 2 DC so close together.
I had a look at the admissions data on the Oxford website. Yes, the percentage of state school applications being successful is rising, but it's still (broadly) 50/50. Broadly. Half our pupils in any given national cohort do not attend private schools. So I can't see contextual offers disadvantaging pupils from a privately educated background, rather trying to even the playing field somewhat.
In any event, if Oxford consider her to be someone that would benefit from their teaching and that they would benefit from having as a student, they will offer her a place. If they don't then they won't. And she won't know how much weight was placed on her contextual data ever I guess.
I'd like to see some of the other 'top' universities have a similar spotlight shone on their admissions stats.
DD's personal statement is done. She has an essay to write, in addition to the two essays that need to be submitted. But at the minute she's working through the mountain of History work that she was given to complete during the summer.