Predicted grades for A level

[Puzzledmum]

My DD is in a very selective girls grammar school in year 12( nearly over). The school is very reluctant to give high predictions. They did not sit AS levels, but had internal final exams, which should be used instead of AS, I believe. She got 4A grades on these exams but is unsure if the school will predict her the A she needs for Oxford. If she did not get the AAA prediction, can she still apply for the course she would like to do (Biology)? I was left with the impression from the open day, that she may not be allowed to even apply if the predictions do not match the required offer. Any thoughts?

Ds just got his end of year results. AABB. He'd like to be predicted A*AA so fingers crossed the school keeps their word about predicted grades.

I kicked up a fuss with my DS’s school 2 years ago as they were going to predict him AAAA. I wanted a 4 A offer. They finally agreed on AAAA. Before anyone thinks I was ridiculous, he did achieve 4 As at A level and got a place at Cambridge on a very competitive course. So I would say push for the best offer possible prediction as your DC needs to stand out. Try to get more than just the one A* prediction. They then need to do very well in the entrance exam.

It reflects badly on teachers when they do worse than predicted, especially now since they are judged on grades and percentages, hence the reluctance. Also - not wanting to get someone's hopes up.

Of course, if your daughter has been producing A* work all year, then there's no reason not to be pushy!! It sounds like she is Oxford material

Predicted grades aren't of massive importance for Oxbridge admissions, provided they meet the minimum - which is OP's worry. They need to meet the threshold then the focus is on other stuff. They're well aware that prediction policies vary massively.

OP it does simply sound as though the school has decided not to firm up on grades until Sept. That's just a hangover from the days when AS results could make a difference but that's not justified now, in most schools. But she does sound like a multiple A* student so I expect that's what she'll get in Sept. No need for them not to tell potential Oxbridge applicants the ball park grades now though, since nothing will change for the school between now and then, with the internal marks in, but it's a fairly key period for the students.

Jeanne16 and Stranger, thank you! I shall push to get the grades by the end of the term. I agree, nothing will change before September so why the suspense! Jeanne16 I agree! I’ll make sure they predict at least the minimum required. It is possible they will predict Astars for the other two subjects but I feel that the subject she is applying for is key to have an Astar prediction as if she does not I feel she will be disadvantaged at application. Thank you for the encouraging words. I would like to think she is Oxbridge material, we shall see next year

Dd got A* A A in her end of year exams and that is what she's being predicted. This will allow to apply anywhere she wants and I m just hoping she gets this in the real thing!

That is great RedHelen! Ours could not get higher than A on the final year exams! It is nice that you will have carefree summer and not thinking about the predictions.

schools are not "stingy" with predicted grades. Schools attempt to make a realistic prediction. Of course there are many variables that come in to play with the actual results, and it can't be exact, but neither can you expect schools to raise predictions because parents want them to be higher.

Clairetree I do not think I am asking for unrealistic predictions. I believe it is only fair for schools to be realistic but optimistic. If the top grade on The final year exams was an A, surely and Astar prediction is not unrealistic!

you are asking them to change their predictions!

have you thought through the consequences? Students accepting offers they are not going to reach? admissions tutors not believing future predictions from the same schools?

It depends on the end of year exam, the student, the course, previous exams, all sorts of things.

A prediction is the teachers best estimate of what a student might get, they can't predict differently because a parent wants them to. Yes of course many things change, but overall, the class results are going to be on average the prediction of the teacher, in other words as many will be lower, as higher.

It depends on the subject, as well, getting an A in AS then a C in A2 is fairly standard the second year of a subject often being harder than the first.

Clairetree1, I have most certainly thought through the consequences very long and hard. Besides, I am not asking them to change anything yet, we have not had the predictions. I was just expressing my concerns that from what we have observed in my daughter's school recently, the school is very reluctant to give generous predictions, if anything, it seems they are prepared to lower the grades than boost them. This is not something that is observed across all schools and having applied to and got into one of the most competitive grammar schools in the country and then having worked very hard all her life, achieving very high results consistently, I cannot see how is it fair to be prevented to apply to her university of choice, just because a teacher is not willing to put a star to the A. Whereas, children from very average comprehensives will be pushed and encouraged to apply with inflated predicted grades. This is what I find unfair.

Only 16% of predicted grades are accurate. Universities know this, schools know this....universities are wary of schools who consistently predict grades that end up being significantly higher than the actual grade.

Oh and entry requirements are a guide only. Universities can make offers way below or above and will often do this based in individual applications. So, yes apply but write a shit hot personal statement

Personal statement won't help if your dd is in a performing grammar - she will need to meet the threshold.

When I was at school (many moons ago) my predicted grades were too low. I wrote to my first choice uni separately after they rejected me and they then gave me a typical offer. I didn't get the grade though so ended up in my insurance!!

If your dd has a chance of getting the a* I would push the school. She won't get a offer otherwise so you have nothing to loose.

ballseditupagain I shall do this exactly, if I need to. I really hope I do not need to, as I am doubtful they will change the grade. Unfortunately, we have to wait until early September to know whether this is necessary.
I agree, if she has not got the predicted grades to match the required offer, she will not be considered at all, so no point in applying. I am only referring to Oxbridge. All other university have some level of flexibility, I think.

My DDs school was really strict with predicted grades and wouldn't budge and she was rejected by Imperial and UCL as a result. She ended up performing better than her predicted grades and getting good enough grades to reapply to both, if she wanted to take a year out. However she chose to go to her firm choice. Very annoying, but she's happy, and can always apply to those Unis or even Oxbridge if she chooses, for postgrad.

My DS has now received his (higher) predictions from the same school. I'm hoping that the fact that the school has a reputation for not inflating predicted grades will serve him well.

Hubby is always pragmatic about these things and as a family, we talked through what seemed to be plans B thru Z, based on various outcomes.

evenstrangerthings - that is exactly what i would like to avoid (DD having to settle for something, which is not her first choice). I am sorry this happened to your DD and hope she makes the most of it and enjoys her current uni. Of course, nothing is the end of the world and they can reapply the following year, after a year out or, as you say, later for postgrad they can go to the uni of their choice. Good luck to your DS!
We are also discussing a plan B at the moment, just in case things do not work out in our favour.

I hope things work out too for your DC 😊

On The Student Room, I've seen some students have success in getting their predicted grades increased by asking their teachers, "What would I need to do and when would I need to do it by, in order to be predicted XYZ?"

One of our Plan B thru to Z was for DD to apply for gap year placements. Many big companies such as PWC and IBM offer them.

Puzzled mum I'm sure your daughters application will be looked at given her top gcses and grammar school.

It might be useful/reassuring to go to The Student Room. Both Cambridge and Oxford admission tutors run regular threads where you can ask quite detailed and specific questions. Although obviously not as common as over prediction of grades, they must have experience of under-predictions. Here's a recent Cambridge one.
www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?t=5440032 ithink for Oxford if you put @Brasenose in a post someone will pop up!

My daughter did what another poster suggested. She approached teachers and asked what she would need to do to get an A* prediction. And presumably did it. Though she do do AS level exams despite doing Linear A levels and the results of those must have made teachers slightly more confident.

Thank you RedHelen, I hope so!
Bonita - many thanks! I shall try TSR. I had a look a few times but could never really find a decent thread with good info. Shall try again and shall look at what you posted. My DD has asked the teachers for recommendations on how to improve further and presumably has got some directions. We shall see in September I guess when the grades are out!

Puzzledmum I'm not clear if your DD has been predicted A grades thus far or simply hasn't been predicted grades at all. I'm finding it hard to believe that she'll not get the A* on the basis of what you've said , but it sounds as though the Ho6 has said no predictions until Sept (which I find petty, frankly).

Puzzledmum your DD would benefit from having the summer to start thinking about her PS and university options. In view of the official stance from the school for September she should ask her subject teachers and possibly head of sixth form whether they would encourage her to apply to Oxbridge. If they refuse to give official grade predictions she can at least get some advice and an indication from them of which universities she could aim for.