Worth applying to universities if you're not forecast correct grades?

[Tigerblue]

DD has been doing her research and is very interested in some courses she's look at requiring AAA, AAA-AAB. She's just sat exams in Year 12 and the initial forecast for predicted grades is A BB. Predictions will be reviewed in the summer, so she's going to work really hard and has asked to resit one exam.

Worst case scenario, she's forecast ABB. Is is worth applying to the unis that require AAA/AAB, especially as the A is relevant to what she'd want to study. I don't know what else they consider, at GCSE she got AAA in the subjects. Her school report is likely to say she's a quieter pupil in class, but takes a full part in school life contributing to it and already has one Upper Sixth role and is applying for another.

As a first reaction I would say yes it's still worth it. However, it does depend on the university and the course.

Some universities and course are "recruiting" which means they can't fill their places with students who are predicted the grades they require. Others are "selecting" which means that there are multiple students with the required grades vying for the same place on the course so the university can be choosy.

"Recruiting" universities and courses will be more likely to offer a place to students whose predicted grades fall below the required tariff.

Are you willing to say which university and course?

The personal statement is also really important for students who aren't meeting the grade requirements. It needs to convince universities that even though she might not fit the profile in terms of grades, she'll be able to contribute to the course nonetheless.

Thanks for your replies.

She doesn't live with us, so I haven't got full details of each course. She's looking at a variety, liberal arts, human geography and global sustainability - she's very passionate about this last element and has always very interested in geography so hopefully this will come across in her personal statement, also what she hopes to gain from course I guess.

She's looked at LSE and booked to go to Birmingham and Warwick. She was considering Kings College, who apparently had places on many courses in clearing last year! I'd previously suggested she look at places requiring lower grades like Exeter, Keele, Swansea (assuming they have suitable courses), alternatively somewhere north/east midlands which might be suitable for second choice. It doesn't have to be a Russell Group but ideally she'd like a higher ranking one.

I was wondering if was worth her contacting the universities before applying and see what reaction she gets. I don't want five totally wasted applications for her.

Warwick and LSE are generally selective, especially LSE. I am surprised Exeter is requiring lower grades. They are usually very popular. Is this a course in Exeter or their other campus? There can be a difference between grades required at each campus.

If Kings had courses that she likes in clearing last year, they may be worthwhile and Birmingham isn’t LSE, so hope there.

She needs to look for a variety of courses with a range of entry requirements. I wouldn’t think LSE (if they are A*AA) will need to come down. I don’t think there is much point suggesting universities if they don’t do the right course, but looking at league tables for the subjects and thinking about what global sustainability means in terms of a job, might give her a steer. It sounds fun for a keen person, but what are the employment opportunities? Could she be interested in sustainable development - planning of new homes, for example? So could she include a geography degree that leads to a planning qualification? There are undoubtedly jobs in this country regarding the science of new packaging materials but I would suggest she thinks about jobs and what degree serves her ambitions the best.

I would always advocate a spread of universities
1-2 'ambitious' choices - a little above her predictions
2-3 'realistic' choices - at about her predicted grades
1-2 'insurance' choice - below her predicted grades

university.which.co.uk has some admissions stats which can be illuminating in terms of seeing which courses are flooded with applicants and which really aren't. However, you do have to take into account some factors e.g. students being a self selecting cohort.

Don't forget that getting the offer is one thing, but if she doesn't meet the entry requirements on results day they will be quite within their rights to reject her

Do you know about the concept of Adjustment - if she does better in her results than her CF require then she may be able to 'trade up'. See here. The only downside is that, like Clearing, it can be awkward to organise accommodation etc at short notice. Or she could re-apply, with results in hand.
Your best bet is to speak to the teachers and encourage them to change the prediction. Your DD is only 6 months in, and has more than another 6 months (before UCAS forms go in) in which to impress them.

Thanks for your replies. LSE are actually AAA, it's the course in Birmingham that require A*AA. Interesting about the concept of Adjustment, probably be a lot easier to stick with her acceptances but still worth knowing about.

It's really worth looking at details on the universities' web sites and, if there's nothing there about whether/how predicted grades are used, e-mailing or phoning the admissions department. Some institutions and/or courses will automatically reject anyone without grade predictions matching the offer; others will look at other factors like personal statements; others (like the course I'm responsible for) won't even look at the predictions because they are utterly meaningless. The latter are a very small minority, though.

My advice would be to speak her choices.

Have an aspirational one - maybe 3 As.
Then 2-3 at around AAB / ABB and then a backup at BBB.

Nottingham is a beautfiul campus and is Russel Group their standard offer is AAB.

She may be interested in the new degree at Sussex - Geogrpahy and International Development. My son has this one as his insurance offer. Sussex are no 1 not the world for International Development so it would still be a prestigious degree to get.
Not sure of the standard offer but think it is below AAB - she can check on UCAS

Spread her choices not speak!

The personal statement is also really important for students who aren't meeting the grade requirements.

No, it isn't. Or at least, not at the time of applications, for the vast majority of courses. That goes double for 18/19 year old at the point of admission home students applying with A Levels or IB.

Outside a handful of low-numbers courses with tricky requirements, large universities do not read personal statements other than in exceptional cases. It is possible the personal statement might be read prior to a offer-holder day if they offer a one-to-one, but by then an offer has been made. The personal statement is more likely be read on results day in the event of a decision over which candidates who have missed their grades should be admitted or whether clearing would be better. But even then the decision is much more likely to be made on the basis of which grades were missed or which non-compulsory but desirable A Levels were taken.

There are some subjects where personal statements are said to matter: medicine. There are some universities which are said to more use them as part of making offers: usually, unsurprisingly, the boutique ones criticised on MN for being late making decisions, like Exeter or St Andrews. I presume that universities which interview but do not ask for additional material use personal statements, such as Imperial, use them, but I don't know.

But in large universities, all home and most international admissions are done centrally up to the point of decisions on results day. The administrators have very little discretion, and basically make offers to everyone whose predicted grades and supporting GCSEs meet certain criteria.

A popular course at a large university will have 1000+ applications per year, most of them fairly plausible. Do people seriously believe that 1000 personal statements are read?

Someone who applies for five courses substantially outside their predicted grades is taking a risk. If those applications are to big courses at big universities, then there is a substantial risk they will receive no offers. They might be lucky and get offers although, in general, schools are generous with predictions (too generous, often) and even once they have an offer above their predictions they still need to make the offer. If they are prepared to risk either a gap year or getting involving in the rather murky waters of continuing application or de novo applications in clearing, then fine. But they should be clear-eyed about the risk they are taking.

Personally, now I work inside the system, if my children had not already started university I would advise doing nothing about university until after they have their A Level results. The UCAS system is opaque, and the more I know about it from inside the more arbitrary I think its outcomes sometimes are. An application in September with your A Levels in your hand is transparent and obvious. Conditional offers are more complex.

I think tactics depend on what your Plan B is.

Generally speaking the more competitive the course, the more important it is to have, at least, predicted results that match minimum requirements. Note some of the most competitive courses will often be looking for predictions that significantly exceed minimum requirements. Applicant to place ratios will probably be on websites, and will give you an idea of the level of competition. If you can cope with rejection, an alternative to aspirational/realistic/fall back approach is to take a two year approach. Get good predictions, apply to reasonably aspirational courses, work hard to meet any offer, and take a gap year/use clearing if you don't or dont make grades.

Less competitive courses might end up in clearing with reduced grades anyway.

The advantage is that if you have an offer from somewhere sought after, they may well allow dropped grades for those who have firmed with them. LSE is a specific example. They never enter clearing, and I don't think they use adjustment either (and don't interview, but read PS' carefully) but geography is not one of their more competitive courses, albeit quite an interesting one if you want an urban focus. In the recent past they have taken students who drop a grade or two, presumably because they want to fill the course and have no other way of doing so.

DD1 missed her grades for Warwick by 4 points (IB points, not UCAS) but they accepted her.

DD1 missed her grades for Warwick by 4 points (IB points, not UCAS) but they accepted her.

But had she been predicted the four points lower, she might not have had an offer. Which is why schools predict up, "to give them a chance".

Conditional offers are a shambles, and a very British problem. Application post-exam, or unconditional offers based on prior achievement, are far more sensible.

I hate to say this, but some universities now say they give a weighting to the personal statement. In the absence of AS results, they do read them! Bristol for one says they take it into account for quite a few courses and also weight GCSE and A level results. Always read what each university says, not what MN sweeping statements say!

There is a course related to Geography at LSE that wants AAB. I am surprise they ask for a B for anything. I am also surprised Birmingham require higher grades. I wonder if the students actually get them?

I know what I would choose for my aspirational if I had to choose between the two and wanted a global job.

Is a gap year out of the question? DS is off to university this autumn, he applied with actual achieved grades of AAB.

If he had applied last year, he wouldn’t have met the offer requirements, which were higher.

It is a risk, I admit. We didn’t plan it this way, but it has actually worked out very well for him.

There is a course related to Geography at LSE that wants AAB. I am surprise they ask for a B for anything. I am also surprised Birmingham require higher grades. I wonder if the students actually get them?

I don't work in geography but my understanding is that there is not a large pool of applicants with very high grades wanting to do Geography. I think the applicants with more science in their backgrounds, wanting to do BScs, tend to come in with higher grades than those with a more humanities profile (wanting to do BAs).

I would guess you have it correct with your last sentence: LSE is likely to be more honest about the grades they want (they don't do Clearing) while Birmingham may list higher grades but is probably more likely to relax them. I'm also not sure that LSE is particularly good for geography, maybe Birmingham is good?, although presumably LSE's human/economic geography is strong.

User, geography at the LSE is quite specific but enjoys a strong reputation. Without looking it up I suspect the department is more PG than UG. If you look at the latest CUG it ranks higher than both Oxford and Cambridge for both research and graduate prospects, but lower overall because of the LSEs miserable student satisfaction.

They have some big name academics, including Tony Travers, who are very involved in the urban planning scene.

However demand for places is probably curtailed because:

1. Not everyone want to go to the LSE. (The old student satisfaction!)
2. It’s quite a specialised course, in that it is more human than physical
3. The geog and econ degree demands an A in A level maths, not easy. I don’t know about Geog, but LSE courses often lean towards maths which does not suit everyone.

But if the course suits it’s worth a shot. As Kenefit says, it’s easier to get in if you have the forecast grades, even if you then miss one or two.

And a few of my contemporaries took to stressing their LSE background Keeping quiet about the subject and managed to manoeuvre themselves into good city jobs...if that is what you want.

We’re in a dip of 18 year old population, she might get lucky, or she needs to convince school to put up her predicted grades and she’ll work hard to get them.

Geography at Birmingham gives quite a lot of unconditional offers, too.

Ask lots of questions. Then ask some more.
What is the school's policy re: awarding predictions? (Sometimes teachers will allow pupils to be tested again to establish final predicted grades just prior to UCAS submission in Oct.)
Get DC to speak to other pupils, to establish whether school is being discriminatory in awarding generous grades to some pupils, despite poor performance in mocks etc. ( not an exact science as there may be valid reasons, ill health, etc). But you can bet your house that there'll be inconsistencies between departments and also between schools.
Also, look at end of threads on Student Room posts. Often info on there as to type of grades accepted by departments at results time.

Lots of info at Sutton Trust on the damage caused by predictions, particularly to low participation cohort which is constantly under predicted. UCU, the university workers' union, is also against. Has mounted initial campaign against unconditional offers, which stem from high predictions and cause issues for students later on.
There's loads of anecdotal evidence that universities are discounting significantly on grades at results time, even for massively oversubscribed courses, such as medicine, eg. ABB, instead of AAA, as demanded in the admissions requirements.
This makes a farce of the whole system. It means that predictions can carry more weight than actual grades in lots of cases. This iniquity is quite shocking and is largely going unchallenged by parents.

I'll give you an example: Student A and Student B both apply for medicine.
Student A, generous teacher, predicted all A's, gets a couple of offers for med school.
Student B, conservative teacher, predicted, ABB. Gets zero offers as those without AAA get sifted out at first round. At results time, both students get ABB. Student A waltzes into medicine in spite of dropped grades as med school has made lots of offers as does not want to be seen as dept that goes into clearing. So, the coveted places are awarded to the existing offer holders, and Student B, despite having achieved the same grades in the final exams is locked out of the system as all the discounting will have gone to offer holders.

Only one in six predicted grades is accurate, according to UCAS' own retrospective data. So why is this injustice being allowed to continue?

For the Environment and Development degree at LSE it actually says Maths is not particularly helpful! It lists several subjects that are typically offered by successful students. It does have an excellent record for careers after university and why not lust it as the aspirational choice?

A popular course at a large university will have 1000+ applications per year, most of them fairly plausible. Do people seriously believe that 1000 personal statements are read?

How interesting - I'm currently touring US universities, and most of them said that they not only read every application in full (many include 3 essays) but at some they are read by 2 different people. These are universities receiving tens of thousands of applications.

most of them said that they not only read every application in full (many include 3 essays) but at some they are read by 2 different people.

By people whose full time job is reading applications! In the UK Admissions tutors also have a full teaching load and research.