Another insurance choice query.

[Eeeeeek330]

Happily DD has an offer from her first choice university for a humanities subject, she has also has an offer from Glasgow. She is still waiting to hear from LSE, Edinburgh and Durham. She doesn't seem too concerned at present, however I am aware she hasn't visited any of them yet. She had planned to go on offer holder days if she got an offer. Most of these are before end of March, However, the deadline for universities to aim to reply by is 31 March, although they seem to have till 9th May as the real cut off. I would book travel to Glasgow's offer holders day, but as Edinburgh is the next day I am a bit reluctant. But the flights will be going up in price daily.
So, is it possible she wont hear back from these institutions till after the offer holders day?

And I am also wondering, though I think I know the answer to this, will she automatically be rejected for a course if the PS is declaring undying passion for 2 subjects which in combination that are not offered by the institution. She applied to Durham, thinking she could then send in a modified PS, but somehow this didn't happen.

So basically 1/4 of teaching time lost, because if only passes are required the students wouldn't actually study the material

It could hopefully be less than a quarter and I think a non examined period of teaching could still be beneficial.

They could then apply with achieved grades. There would be no need for students to visit multiple open days and incur the associated expense

Students would only need to visit those Universities that they would be eligible to apply to rather than having to hedge their bets and visit a wide cross section of universities.

But there are 130+ universities in the UK. Even if you restrict to top 20, you still need to consider a fair number to pick your favourites. Right now, most students don't actually in practice visit a wide cross section of universities - they tend to focus on visiting those offering at around their predicted grades.

Imo it is not necessary to physically visit as many universities as students currently do. Virtual tours and a detailed look at the courses would easily allow students to make a shortlist and cut down on the number they visit.

BTW for the ABB at Warwick and AAA at Keele example: remember A level grades aren't necessarily everything.

I have certainly chosen to accept students with high potential but lower grades over students with lower potential but higher grades.

And the AAA at Keele student could, had they wanted to, have entered Adjustment or reapplied the following year. Chemistry is an under-subscribed subject and it would not have been difficult to pick up very highly valued RG courses in Adjustment with AAA grades. So the student presumably chose to stay with Keele - which is fine, if that's what they wanted.

BTW for the ABB at Warwick and AAA at Keele example: remember A level grades aren't necessarily everything.

I realise that. However, it still doesn't seem sensible to make offers largely based on predicted A'levels grades when the predicted grades are so unreliable. The boy who got into Warwick would not have been made an offer in the first place if his predicted grades were correct. It's true that the AAA student could have used the adjustment process but as I'm sure you know many of the 'highest tariff' universities don't have many or any spaces available for adjustment.

Whilst that student still happily chose to go to Keele I bet he would have looked at higher tariff universities had his predicted grades been accurate. Had he applied to Warwick with his predicted grades he would have been rejected outright.

Predicted grades are getting more and more inaccurate year on year and whilst I understand that predicted grades tend to be more accurate for the very top students for the vast majority of students it makes the whole application process too much about game playing and guesswork.

Nearly 100,000 students went either to their insurance choice or through clearing last year. An application process using achieved results could potentially eliminate this.

I don't know how it would work but presumably it could be done one way or another.

The current system works pretty well though doesn't it Hisstory? I certainly wouldn't welcome losing a large wodge of teaching time to facilitate this new system you suggest which probably wouldn't see that much difference in who goes where in any event. And DC at my own DCs' school certainly haven't ever seemed to visit a wide cross section of universities - perhaps some visit a couple or maybe three but most use the websites as user615 suggests, along with general reputation/ geographical location etc. My own seven DC have made no pre-application visits at all, bar one school organised visit each, although a single DC has done two post offer visits and his younger sibling is about to do the same. I don't see that they've missed out at all by not flogging around the country indeed I think the lack of too much flogging has served them (and my purse) very well. I certainly don't see the visit thing as a reason for changing the entire system, it's a complete red herring.

The sooner the U.K. moves towards a system where students apply to university with achieved results the better.

If you and your DC think this is a good idea then they can do this - take a gap year (getting relevant experience and/or earning some money). No need to propose changes which, as user....15 points out would put the UK out of sync with everyone else.

GoodbyeStranger I believe your DC are all at a top Uni and were all very high achieving students. (Sorry if I'm mistaken). For such students the current system works well and, of course, there is no need for them to visit many Unis, they wouldn't go far wrong with any of their likely choices and they would have had no problems accessing any information they wished. However, the vast majority of students do not fall into the same elite group and these are the students who are more likely to suffer the effects of wildly inaccurate predicted grades and from the lack of savvy'ness when making their applications.

I'm not sure why a system where A level students took their final exams earlier in the year would take a 'wodge' out of teaching time. Surely the time lost during the exams would be replaced at the end of the academic year during the existing exam period. Surely it would end up with the same amount of teaching time.

Do you really think the kids - particularly perhaps some of the the less 'elite' ones - would take the post-exam study you suggest very seriously?

Errol If you and your DC think this is a good idea then they can do this - take a gap year
No need, my DC are all already at Uni (3 at their firm choice Uni and 1 at their 'adjustment' choice). All happy and all at the right Uni for them.

Gap years don't help with making the system fairer and more transparent. Not unless everyone took one.

No need to propose changes which, as user....15 points out would put the UK out of sync with everyone else

The suggestion to have A'levels students main exams in Feb/March or thereabouts wouldn't put them out of sync with anyone else.

I not exactly the first person to have suggested this 😂 but I would dream of thinking I have all the answers. I just don't think the current system is fair and transparent. There is too much guesswork and uncertainty

Do you really think the kids - particularly perhaps some of the the less 'elite' ones - would take the post-exam study you suggest very seriously?

Well these kids would presumably be the same ones going on to University where in many cases the first year does not count towards their final degree and where students only have to get a 'pass' mark to progress to their second year.

'Well these kids would presumably be the same ones going on to University where in many cases the first year does not count towards their final degree and where students only have to get a 'pass' mark to progress to their second year.'

The point being.....

They are at University. I hope they would have sufficient maturity to work whether exams 'counted' or not. Plus even if the first year does not count, courses will be the basis of study in second or third years, and marks could well influence whether you get a summer internship or, if part of the degree, a work placement. I do not understand why anyone would go to university, pay fees and living costs, and then decide a first year did not count.

I would second considering a gap year.

What you are proposing is a compulsory gap six months for everyone. On the basis, which again I don't understand, that it makes the system fairer and more transparent for everyone.

DD has a place, but is taking a gap year anyway, and it's proving a really positive experience. She has picked up plenty of additional skills that will help her transition to university. (And to avoid any claims that a gap year is only available to the middle classes, the diversity of those doing the ski season with her is wide and includes kids heading towards apprenticeships, on work placements from catering college, and heading for, or just finished at, Universities from the top and bottom of the League tables, or those who have left school with no plans.)

Finding a University course at the right level is important. Some friends of DC have found themselves on courses that are not particularly stretching, and have regretted it. If you are on a course which is too tough it is probably possible to transfer to something gentler after the first year, but probably not the other way round.

My approach would be to firm and insure the two favourite courses, regardless of grades, and then work like blazes to get those grades. If you don't one of the following will happen:

a) they take you anyway
b) they offer you a similar course at the same university. (This happened to a friend of DDs and it really suits him. Plus I think he has the option of transferring back to his preferred course if he does well enough in his first year, which he could well do.)
c) you go through clearing, perhaps landing the "two grades lower" course you had thought of insuring.
d) you take a gap year and rethink. You are then a year older with some experience outside school and may well have refined what you thought you wanted to do. And when you arrive at University with more maturity.

Completely agree with needmoresleep.

This is the strategy proposed by good schools (state and private).

Errol, west do you mean by less elite ones ? Academically or socially deprived ?

I was just using the previous poster's term - hence putting it in quotes - not really one I'd choose myself.

Hisstory teachers at our school manage to get predicted grades pretty much bang on the money so I struggle a bit to see why other schools can't do the same too - that is, if you're correct that grades are all over the shop. And yes, of course taking exams in February would take a massive chunk out of proper teaching time and yes to Errol, kids would flake off after them (at least the normal ones would. My own DC wouldn't have had the least interest in coming back to school after exams were done to do any form of additional work - I can't honestly believe any DC would).

I'm a bit baffled what some people think isn't 'transparent' about the current system - I've got a yr 13 and the whole UCAS process has seemed clear, information readily available.

I'm a bit baffled what some people think isn't 'transparent' about the current system.

On selective courses it will never be possible to give completely black and white rules unless you select by computer, rather than by using academics' judgements.

Oxbridge could make things absolutely transparent by selecting entirely by A level grades/pretest scores (taking the top students according to these criteria) but this would really not be in the best interests of anyone.

I would say that the UK system is not only pretty transparent (compare Oxbridge entrance with Harvard entrance) but that we also have pretty low drop out rates. Countries which operate admissions schemes like those proposed above - unconditionals early in the last year of school, relatively little selection - throw a lot more students out after their first year when they don't make the grade.

I'll try and address a few points.

Has anyone any experience of education in the US and their University application process. I'm no expert but they generally apply and get confirmed places early in the year in their final year at school. They still have to attend school until the summer holidays. I think the Canadian system is similar, at least for some universities or provinces, my friends DC (Quebec student) had an firm offer at McGill over Xmas 2013. (?) but still had to attend school and pass.

Errol
It's great that you understand UCAS and the application process. It sounds like you are an involved and supportive parent and that your DC is at a good school. I think a lot of parents don't have a clue and that a lot of children don't get much support or advice from their schools either.
I've no issue with UCAS, it has excellent and easy to understand guidance for applicants. It the whole process and that is the problem.

The reason I think the current system which relies on predicted grades is not transparent is because not all schools or teachers are willing to 'over' predict. So two academically identical students may end up with very different predicted grades. The student with the higher predicted grades may well end up with offers that the other student wouldn't. This is clearly not 'fair' .

There other main area which shows a lack of transparency and fairness is the official entry grades given by Unis Vs the actual grades they would accept. Again, this is less relevant for the very top competitive courses.

GoodByeStranger. I'm guessing your kids school is a high achieving that sends lots of DC to great Unis. Predicted grades are known to be more most accurate for higher A level grades.

54% of students predicted grades were at least two grades higher than predicted, surely that tells you something isn't working.

Sorry didn't proof read that and was typing on my phone

Hisstory predicting grades should be more of a science than an art, whichever level of student a teacher is considering.

In the US they have a well-known phenomenon called 'senioritis'. Senior year is their final year. Students with 'senioritis' stop working hard after they receive their university acceptances. Yes, they still have to attend school until the summer holidays, but it is generally expected that they won't do much.

Not in the least surprised hippy. The same phenomenon was evident when A Levels were modular and DC only needed a few percent on the June paper to meet their offers. These are teenagers, usually keen on as many months of freedom as they can lay their hands on. I have every sympathy with them.

Hisstory predicting grades should be more of a science than an art, whichever level of student a teacher is considering

I agree.

I wonder what will happen with the new format A Levels. I imagine predicted grades will get even more inaccurate.

This graph Shows how few students meet or exceed their predicted grades (Factors associated with predicted and achieved A level attainment
August 2016 UCAS). In 2015 only about 26% of students predicted BBB or higher achieve or exceeded their predicted grades. It's also worth remembering that the bulk of students get B's and C's at Alevel. These are the students who I think would most benefit from applying with achieved grades. That sounds more like guesswork than either a science or an art 😂

Incidentally, It appears harder to accurately predict grades in certain subjects. In 2015 just under 64% of physics predicted grades were higher than the achieved grade.

Oops more typos and a sentence ended up in the wrong place I really shouldn't post long posts while I'm on my phone and distracted.....

😂

How do A grades work in the new A levels? I think this was one of the hardest grades to predict in the old style. E.g. My DD got over 90% average in 1 subject but not in the A2 papers alone so didn't get an A. As there won't be A2 papers anymore, how will this work?