University Admissions - the data we'd really like to see ????

[boys3]

DS1 went through the Uni application process last year and from the threads for previous years, last year and the ones for the current cycle there seem to be a set of commonly recurring questions around how much flex there is around required grades to get an offer, how much leeway there might be if actual results fall short and / or are not spot on the requirements, and what grades get a place through Clearing.

Universities and UCAS have (surely??) all this data, so what is stopping it being published?

To my very simple way of thinking, possible overly simplistic, would it be that difficult for Unis and / or UCAS to publish at subject level more specific and useful data?

Here’s my take on it. I’ve used A2 grades as the basis, but the structure could as easily be applied to A2 points, IB or Btec. I did put in in a nice little excel table to make it easier to understand however I’m not sure how I could paste that in or attach it, hence the rather wordy description below instead.

Top level summary – for Course X at Uni Y. The typical offer range is A*AA to AAB with the aim of having between 180-220 students in any one year. In the most recent cycle for which data is available (ie I've made up) there were 1200 applications received, 750 offers made, and 207 actually took up a place.

First off Offers made by grade.

We know course X had 750 offers made so the next stage would be to show the offer grade breakdown. So for each grade combination for which offers were made ( A*AA, AAA, AAB etc), and plus any unconditional offers how many:

A. Firm acceptances
B. Insurance acceptances
C. Rejections (eg the applicant neither Firmed nor Insured the offer)

For unconditional offers these could be split into unconditionals based on predicted grades, and then unconditionals based on achieved grades (for deferred entry applicants). In the latter case a breakdown would also be provided on achieved grades.

For a bit of added complexity there could be data on candidates rejected for Course X, but who received an offer for a different course.

For the sake of the example let’s say that out of the 750 offers made, 220 applicants firmed and 125 insured.

I'd suggest that this data be made available and published fairly quickly after applications have closed, so available to DCs starting their application process later that year.

Then Places taken up following results

Firstly our 220 Firm applications . Again broken down by the grade offer combination the data could show:

D. The number of applicants that achieved or exceeded the grade combination offered
E. The number of applicants who did not achieve the grade combination offered
F. The numbers of applicants who did not achieve the grade combination BUT were still offered a place on Course X.

Again for the sake of the example lets say the numbers in total were 158 (D), 112 (E), and 14 (F). So at this point Course X has 172 (D+F) confirmed students.

As with the offers if we wanted to complicate things a little further the number not achieving the firm offer, but being then offered an alternative course at Uni Y could also be included along with the number who accepted the alternative course.

Next our 125 insurance applicants. Again broken down by grade offer combination the data could show:

G. The number that achieved their Firm offer, or even if falling short, still had their Firm offer confirmed. We know they won’t be coming to Uni Y, to read Course X
H. The number that missed their firm offer / were not offered a place at their firm but did meet the insurance requirements of Uni Y.
I. The number that missed their firm offer and Uni Y’s insurance offer
J. The number that although missing the insurance offer were accepted at Uni Y.

To keep with the example the numbers were 100 (G), 15 (H) , 10 (I) and 0 (J)

Course X now has 187 confirmed places. (172+15) (D+F+H+J)

Moving on to adjustment applicants . Using the same framework as the other groups but this time by achieved , as opposed to offer, grade combinations.

K. The Number of adjustment requests
L. The number of adjustment acceptances

Lets say that through adjustment another 10 places were confirmed for Course X

Finally places allocated through Clearing . As with adjustment this would show the achieved grade combination and for each such combination (obviously only those combos which received an application through clearing):

M. The number of clearing applications
N. The number of clearing acceptances.

Uni Y were pretty tough in this cycle and took just 10 applicants through clearing, thus giving 207 places filled for Course X in total.

As far as I can see UCAS produce a raft of very top level stats at the end of each cycle, but nothing along these lines. Some Unis publish a bit more , Cambridge have their rather swizzy interactive graphs, Durham publish quite a bit of top level data, but neither get into the what really matters. Then a whole raft of Unis seem to publish next to nothing, or literally nothing.

So is this the kind of data that would be useful to DCs (and parents) - ideally whilst shown for each year including a number of years of data - , and if so, why is it not currently available? Or if it is where is it hidden away?

Gosh that's complicated what OP wrote.
It's changing in near future because of the lift of grade-cap restrictions, anyway. So last yr's data will be especially meaningless several years on the trot.

I like what MillyMollyMama wrote.

Before anyone spontaneously combusts in a fit of righteous indignation :) , I’d better quickly sum up.

The four ????s in the title do seem to have been largely validated.

As my opening paragraph suggested, perhaps not as clearly as I had intended, the thread was more in response to the three seemingly common areas of questioning on many of the MN threads around applying / considering higher education, and certainly very common the Student Room. I hope upthechimney that answers you in terms of why I asked the question.

As a starter for ten, this is a university thread after all, milly I would absolutely concur with the opening statement of your first reply. And for many others who have taken the time to respond the points around context, meaning, ability to interpret are of course absolutely valid.

I have to admit to being a little naughty with my transparency quip - possibly needlessly so. The “tyranny” of data might be a more apt phrase. Going back to risks around context and interpretation we have a prime example of that today with the publication of the surgeon outcome data.

Is there a "stay calm" icon

But, but, but ... the OP still hasn't been open about why s/he wants those data. As noddyholder and murderedinkent both say, this looks like either helicopter parenting and/or gaming the system: that is, as another poster says: sets their heart on a place and wants to know how to use the system to help their child

The OP might do well to read up on the really interesting branch of economics which looks at how people don't always make rational choices, or even choices in their best interests. And we see a lot of that in here and on TSR!

As importantly last year's experience does not predict next year's because Universities will adapt their decision making.

I suspect we have all heard of "exceptions". In our case, one boy got onto a good law course despite dropping a grade in all three A levels. And on Student Room an example of a girl doing similar for VetMed. Another was only 1 mark short of his A A A offer in humanities yet lost his place. A third boy dropped a grade and lost his engineering place, but then got picked up in Clearing by a more prestigious department.

All of which are probably a function of different Universities failing to fine tune their offers sufficiently accurately to match seats with bums, and so have differing amounts of flexibility when the results come out. What then will be more predictable is that those Universities who have been caught out will change their approach slightly to get it better in the following year. So the University which was being relatively generous this year probably won't next.

I'm completely baffled!

So, let's say this information could be used to nab offers from marginally more prestigious Unis - is that actually more important than doing a course for three years in a city/town you love, at a Uni that has lots of sport societies (or doesn't have lots of sports societies) and who run modules you are really interested in and with professors you clicked with when you met them at open day?

Isn't that where all this energy should be being spent?

Obviously yes, Kez

But, but, but ... the OP still hasn't been open about why s/he wants those data.

I’ll try again - here is what prompted the thread.

from the threads for previous years, last year and the ones for the current cycle there seem to be a set of commonly recurring questions around how much flex there is around required grades to get an offer, how much leeway there might be if actual results fall short and / or are not spot on the requirements, and what grades get a place through Clearing.

The post is purely about those recurring questions. Is there any data that might go in part to addressing them. Or indeed do they need to be addressed at all. Not going to need a solution when there in fact is not a problem in the first place.

But for the sake of discussion I’ve set out an option. Option being the key word. Not a this must happen and nothing else will do. An option. An option for discussion on a discussion thread on a discussion forum. Nothing more. No hidden agenda. No conspiracy theory. Just an invitation for views on the subject.

this looks like either helicopter parenting and/or gaming the system: that is, as another poster says: sets their heart on a place and wants to know how to use the system to help their child

2nd word of my post to start the thread : “went” : past tense. DS1 is already at Uni. I was a regular poster on last year’s Oxbridge and Y13 threads so hardly a secret as to where he goes if anyone was desperate to find out . Ok prompts another question as to whether he might have been swapped at birth, but that would be a whole other discussion

I think league tables really skew the system, plus being high up in a league table is self perpetuating as one of the things they look at in deciding how far up the league table you are is the grades you demand, if you're high up the league table more people want to go there so you can demand higher grades etc.
Some of the stuff like research isn't that relevant for undergrads.
Loads of people apply to the top 3 in a league table for their subject just because they're in the top 3 for their subject without really looking at the course content and other course details. "Prestige" seems to be the in word.
My son looked at league tables but also looked alot at unistats and course content details and open days. Employability after the course (on unistats) was also important. he looked at Cambridge but didn't like the short term hot house approach and their course was less practical and more mathematical (and punting/rowing not kayaking).

LardyDa
Thanks - really interesting website - I could spend hours on it....
Have done a quick search on a subject the DS thinks he is interested in (to apply next year) - great to have a quick trawl through and compare. At least it gives an excellent starting point - thanks!!!

you have to live with the knowledge that your crushing people's dreams

Tell your DH that he isn't doing this at all, just diverting them to a different dream.

Totally agree with you about letting them choose the subject they want to study. Big mistake for parents to influence the choice of subject.